Is there a second wave?

[avromie7]

How is it unprecedented? Throughout history pandemics have come in waves.
The onus to prove this will be an exception and isn't worth a concern falls on you.

+1 barring the release of some scientific information we don't know about, I don't see how anyone can say "there is no reason to believe there will be another wave" until fall comes and goes without another wave.

[Shmobaum]

Does a second wave mean that the virus mutates?

[Afrages6]

Does a second wave mean that the virus mutates?

No. Coronaviruses don’t mutate significantly

[Ergel]

https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/pandemic-waves/

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/

[gozalim]

Does a second wave mean that the virus mutates?

No. Coronaviruses don’t mutate significantly

then whatever level antibodies/herd immunity are present (in hard hit communities) will still provide the same protection then that they will now.
the question of wether that wave is immediately on reopening or come fall is only if transmission is seasonally affected

[aygart]

then whatever level antibodies/herd immunity are present (in hard hit communities) will still provide the same protection then that they will now.
the question of wether that wave is immediately on reopening or come fall is only if transmission is seasonally affected

That is also dependent on how long the body's immunity to it lasts. That is not the same for all viruses. I remember reading that for other Coronaviruses it is about 2 years but htat a vaccine can still last longer.

[fresar]

How is it unprecedented? Throughout history pandemics have come in waves.
The onus to prove this will be an exception and isn't worth a concern falls on you.

The last panadmic was 100 years ago, modern medicine etc can help a lot to avoid a second wave

[Dan]

The last panadmic was 100 years ago, modern medicine etc can help a lot to avoid a second wave

Cool story!

So just to be clear, we rely on Doctors to have medicine that they say doesn't exist to control this virus, but we don't rely on Doctors warning that there can be a 2nd wave as there have been for past pandemics?

[Moshe123]

Why would a potential second wave in the fall have anything to do with distancing in early summer?
Besides, this virus is affecting areas where it's summer. It's not like the flu. I think we have a lot higher herd immunity and that is the sole reason why it's bh not spreading.

[Ergel]

Why would a potential second wave in the fall have anything to do with distancing in early summer?
Besides, this virus is affecting areas where it's summer. It's not like the flu. I think we have a lot higher herd immunity and that is the sole reason why it's bh not spreading.

Might be true, might not be true. Is it worth risking public health over?
It seems so clear that wearing a mask reduces the risk of spread of disease - do you think if we stopped the shutdown and just required mask wearing (and encouraged social distancing) - would people listen? Is that the best path forward?

[aygart]

Why would a potential second wave in the fall have anything to do with distancing in early summer?
Besides, this virus is affecting areas where it's summer. It's not like the flu. I think we have a lot higher herd immunity and that is the sole reason why it's bh not spreading.

Why are you limiting the potential to the fall?

[incendia]

Why would a potential second wave in the fall have anything to do with distancing in early summer?
Besides, this virus is affecting areas where it's summer. It's not like the flu. I think we have a lot higher herd immunity and that is the sole reason why it's bh not spreading.

If (some paaerts of the country have a linear upwards curve) it follows a similar path like 1918 it still important to control it now for a few reasons

People can still get sick and die during the off season-people do catch flues and colds during the summer.

If there is a 2nd wave in fall, its better to start at a lower level than a higher level and puts us in a stronger position to avoid the most harsh of mitigation protocols

[aygart]

Might be true, might not be true. Is it worth risking public health over?
It seems so clear that wearing a mask reduces the risk of spread of disease - do you think if we stopped the shutdown and just required mask wearing (and encouraged social distancing) - would people listen? Is that the best path forward?

Whoever would catch something in the fall caught it from SOMEONE

[avromie7]

If there is a 2nd wave in fall, its better to start at a lower level than a higher level and puts us in a stronger position to avoid the most harsh of mitigation protocols

OTOH, if more people get it before the fall there are less people susceptible in the fall.

[aygart]

OTOH, if more people get it before the fall there are less people susceptible in the fall.

If you can time it perfectly

[fresar]

Cool story!

So just to be clear, we rely on Doctors to have medicine that they say doesn't exist to control this virus, but we don't rely on Doctors warning that there can be a 2nd wave as there have been for past pandemics?

It could be it would be a 2nd wave, but now we know much better how to treat patients and to avoid deads then we did 3 months ago.

[Dan]

It could be it would be a 2nd wave, but now we know much better how to treat patients and to avoid deads then we did 3 months ago.

Not really, but OK.

[avromie7]

Not really, but OK.

We know much more about it now than we did 3 months ago. For example we now know that ventilators were killing people.

If you want you can argue it's not enough, but we definitely know much more now.

[Dan]

For example we no know that ventilators were killing people.

Not really, but OK.

[CountValentine]

For example we no know that ventilators were killing people.

Source?