Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 100104 times)

Offline yzj

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #260 on: June 14, 2020, 01:25:41 AM »
Source? (medical)Did you think this was a normal thing to say in any way for any reason?
I don’t think a medical source is necessary at this point. Not when you have this
going on in frum communities and similar but smaller scale in Lakewood and numbers haven’t budged.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #261 on: June 14, 2020, 08:38:55 AM »
Cute. But florida barely had any cases originally so how is it a second wave? If new york had a tremendous uptick that would be a second wave... there still on the first

Who said second wave? @incendia said we shouldn't be talking about a second wave until the first is over when he quoted that tweet with the record numbers.

Serious question: you seem to be of the opinion that Covid is irrelevant to your community specifically and the NY/NY Jewish communities in general. Why do you still hang around the Covid board if it's null and void? Seems to be an epic waste of your time...
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Online moko

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #262 on: June 14, 2020, 08:47:22 AM »
Why do you still hang around the Covid board if it's null and void? Seems to be an epic waste of your time...
that describes the entire JS board and some more... Yet we're all here  :)

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #263 on: June 14, 2020, 09:20:36 AM »
Serious question: you seem to be of the opinion that Covid is irrelevant to your community specifically and the NY/NY Jewish communities in general. Why do you still hang around the Covid board if it's null and void? Seems to be an epic waste of your time...
Even those who believe COVID is gone never to be seen again are affected by the lockdown.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #264 on: June 14, 2020, 10:10:54 AM »
Lakewood-almost no cases with thousands of frum people in shuls and schools with no SD. Same for many NYC frum communities. People are confusing places that haven’t been hit hard and are indeed susceptible to a second (first?) wave and places that have been hit and are not seeing any further activity nor are they even remotely likely to see a large second wave going forward.

As a senior Crown Heights Hatzolah member put it to me on Shabbos: Places that didn't experience what Crown Heights, Williamsburg and Boro Park experienced (we were discussing EY) will keep on seeing flare-ups. While our communities have experienced virtually no new cases for weeks, despite going back to normal. This has been the case for weeks.

Driving down Bedford Avenue on Friday it felt like I crossed a border at Park Avenue. Until that points masks were seen everywhere. Once Park Avenue was crossed, there was not a face (or even chin-) mask to be seen (except for an occasional outsider passing through).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #265 on: June 14, 2020, 10:50:18 AM »
I don’t think a medical source is necessary at this point. Not when you have this
going on in frum communities and similar but smaller scale in Lakewood and numbers haven’t budged.
You said there is no chance of a second wave occurring at a future date. That has nothing to do with there not having been a resurgence yet.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #266 on: June 14, 2020, 10:54:05 AM »
As a senior Crown Heights Hatzolah member put it to me on Shabbos: Places that didn't experience what Crown Heights, Williamsburg and Boro Park experienced (we were discussing EY) will keep on seeing flare-ups. While our communities have experienced virtually no new cases for weeks, despite going back to normal. This has been the case for weeks.

Driving down Bedford Avenue on Friday it felt like I crossed a border at Park Avenue. Until that points masks were seen everywhere. Once Park Avenue was crossed, there was not a face (or even chin-) mask to be seen (except for an occasional outsider passing through).
Has it been your experience that Hatzalah members understand this virus more than doctors and other professionals? Everyone’s been saying it and he’s no more an expert than the next guy.
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #267 on: June 14, 2020, 10:56:16 AM »
Has it been your experience that Hatzalah members understand this virus more than doctors and other professionals? Everyone’s been saying it and he’s no more an expert than the next guy.

Exactly. And the Doctors and health professionals don't understand it either!

אין לו לדיין מה שעיניו רואות.

Those that lack the humility to acknowledge that they don't know and don't understand, and that opposing views might be valid, lose credibility.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #268 on: June 14, 2020, 10:59:28 AM »
Exactly. And the Doctors and health professionals don't understand it either!

אין לו לדיין מה שעיניו רואות.

Those that lack the humility to acknowledge that they don't know and don't understand, and that opposing views might be valid, lose credibility.
You took the words right out of my mouth.

Also, doctors do understand it better than Hatzalah members and laymen. What is so hard for people to understand about this?
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Online aygart

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #269 on: June 14, 2020, 11:18:11 AM »
אין לו לדיין מה שעיניו רואות.


That does not mean that everyone is qualified to interpret what they see to understand where it can potential lead.
One of the most important things for a dayan is to know when he has the tools to understand what the data really means. Does the lack of cases now mean that we don't have what to worry about or is it simply that it takes more time that they are assuming for things to blow up? I hope that it means we are done, but don't have confidence that every person who is qualified to keep someone alive for a few minutes to get them to a hospital has enough knowledge to bring what they are seeing to an actionable interpretation.
Hopefully it will turn out well. If it does that does not translate to everyone having said that we can go back to life as usual right here and now having been correct.
I will leave you with this:
Just because it worked out doesn't mean you were right or smart. A dumb choice can also work out well.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2020, 11:48:38 AM by aygart »
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #270 on: June 14, 2020, 11:35:17 AM »
As a senior Crown Heights Hatzolah member put it to me on Shabbos: Places that didn't experience what Crown Heights, Williamsburg and Boro Park experienced (we were discussing EY) will keep on seeing flare-ups. While our communities have experienced virtually no new cases for weeks, despite going back to normal. This has been the case for weeks.

Driving down Bedford Avenue on Friday it felt like I crossed a border at Park Avenue. Until that points masks were seen everywhere. Once Park Avenue was crossed, there was not a face (or even chin-) mask to be seen (except for an occasional outsider passing through).
If I were a virus, walking down Park Avenue, and had my druthers, I'd turn down the street of the unmasked.

And if the virus makes that turn, we'll all regret it.  Maybe not today.  Maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of our lives.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #271 on: June 14, 2020, 11:56:01 AM »
You took the words right out of my mouth.

Also, doctors do understand it better than Hatzalah members and laymen. What is so hard for people to understand about this?

How much Mandarin do you understand? If 0 then I understand more than you do. How about Turkish? My Turkish vocabulary is probably at about 2,000% of my Mandarin vocabulary. Does that mean I can have a most basic telephone conversation in Turkish? No. Then we get to Arabic. My vocabulary there is probably also several thousand percent my Turkish vocabulary. Can I have a telephone conversation? No! Can I pick up a gist of a TV news report? Sometimes. Can I say I understand Arabic in a way that can be relied upon? No.

I hope you get my point.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #272 on: June 14, 2020, 11:57:00 AM »
If I were a virus, walking down Park Avenue, and had my druthers, I'd turn down the street of the unmasked.

And if the virus makes that turn, we'll all regret it.  Maybe not today.  Maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of our lives.

Except that you're not a virus.  If you were, you'd likely to be decimated and die out there.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #273 on: June 14, 2020, 12:16:48 PM »
How much Mandarin do you understand? If 0 then I understand more than you do. How about Turkish? My Turkish vocabulary is probably at about 2,000% of my Mandarin vocabulary. Does that mean I can have a most basic telephone conversation in Turkish? No. Then we get to Arabic. My vocabulary there is probably also several thousand percent my Turkish vocabulary. Can I have a telephone conversation? No! Can I pick up a gist of a TV news report? Sometimes. Can I say I understand Arabic in a way that can be relied upon? No.

I hope you get my point.
I’m not trying to be clever but I honestly don’t.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #274 on: June 14, 2020, 12:26:56 PM »
Except that you're not a virus.  If you were, you'd likely to be decimated and die out there.
Not if I got inhaled into the nasal passages of a susceptible person without a mask.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #275 on: June 14, 2020, 12:29:20 PM »
I’m not trying to be clever but I honestly don’t.

Let's try a different one:

Quote
A chassid by the name of Reb Gershon Ber described the extent and depth of a tzaddik’s Torah knowledge. Reb Gershon Ber himself was a Torah genius and in his times was considered one of the greatest minds in the Chabad-Chassidic community — someone who understood the deep, abstract concepts of chassidic philosophy on the highest level.

He said, “If I would compare myself to the great chassid Reb Hillel Paritcher5 and compare the depth of my understanding to his, I would have to compare myself to a cat. I don’t mean,” he explained, “that as far as I am from the level of a cat, that is how distant I am to him. No. Reb Hillel Paritcher’s depth is so incredible that compared to him, the cat and I are of equal distance from him.”

He continued, “But if I would compare the level and depth of Reb Hillel Paritcher to that of the Tzemach Tzedek (who was the Rebbe at that time), I would also compare Reb Hillel to the cat. And I don’t mean that as distant as the cat is from Reb Hillel Paritcher, that is how distant he is to the Tzemach Tzedek. The depth of Torah knowledge of the Tzemach Tzedek is so incredible, that compared to him, Reb Hillel Paritcher and the cat are of equal distance to him.”

Source: https://www.sie.org/templates/sie/article_cdo/aid/2296329/jewish/Chapter-Two-But-Is-It-Jewish.htm
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #276 on: June 14, 2020, 12:48:16 PM »
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Offline Ergel

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #277 on: June 14, 2020, 12:57:34 PM »
I have thought for a long time that the message of this pandemic was to show us how little we know. I'm amazed that we have taken that message to mean that experts know as little as us and therefore we don't need to take their opinion into account
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #278 on: June 14, 2020, 01:09:31 PM »
I have thought for a long time that the message of this pandemic was to show us how little we know. I'm amazed that we have taken that message to mean that experts know as little as us and therefore we don't need to take their opinion into account

Their opinions were taken into account and held in high regard, until they failed on a few basic fronts:

1. Acknowledging how little they actually know and understand.
2. Adapting their guidance and opinions to the actual evidence.
3. Cool headed thinking based on acquired experience.
4. Big picture thinking about the situation.

They are simply eroding their own credibility.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #279 on: June 14, 2020, 01:12:14 PM »
I have thought for a long time that the message of this pandemic was to show us how little we know. I'm amazed that we have taken that message to mean that experts know as little as us and therefore we don't need to take their opinion into account
Like everything nowadays. If it fits the narrative they know what they are talking about. If it doesn't fit the narrative then they don't know what they are talking about.

Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half