Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 100211 times)

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #280 on: June 14, 2020, 01:14:04 PM »
Their opinions were taken into account and held in high regard, until they failed on a few basic fronts:

1. Acknowledging how little they actually know and understand.
2. Adapting their guidance and opinions to the actual evidence.
3. Cool headed thinking based on acquired experience.
4. Big picture thinking about the situation.

They are simply eroding their own credibility.
Their opinions are still taken into account, albeit with a very big grain of salt.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Ergel

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #281 on: June 14, 2020, 01:24:19 PM »
How much Mandarin do you understand? If 0 then I understand more than you do. How about Turkish? My Turkish vocabulary is probably at about 2,000% of my Mandarin vocabulary. Does that mean I can have a most basic telephone conversation in Turkish? No. Then we get to Arabic. My vocabulary there is probably also several thousand percent my Turkish vocabulary. Can I have a telephone conversation? No! Can I pick up a gist of a TV news report? Sometimes. Can I say I understand Arabic in a way that can be relied upon? No.

I hope you get my point.
And if my life, or anyone's life, was dependent on me getting a message across in Arabic and I said, well the former redhead would fail a test in Arabic, so I'll just go at it myself - what would you say to me?
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #282 on: June 14, 2020, 01:32:51 PM »
And if my life, or anyone's life, was dependent on me getting a message across in Arabic and I said, well the former redhead would fail a test in Arabic, so I'll just go at it myself - what would you say to me?

The other part of the story is that there's no one that can get it across in Arabic, it would probably tell you to resort to non verbal communication. Oh, in several communities in NYC area said non-verbal communication is saying something very clearly to anyone looking.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Ergel

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #283 on: June 14, 2020, 01:39:23 PM »
The other part of the story is that there's no one that can get it across in Arabic, it would probably tell you to resort to non verbal communication. Oh, in several communities in NYC area said non-verbal communication is saying something very clearly to anyone looking.
I just don't get why we assume that what has happened will continue to happen. Maybe the non-verbal communication is actually telling you something really bad is coming and you should be careful, but you don't know the Arab culture and therefore don't know how to read that non-verbal communication?
I'm not saying something bad is coming. I just find it fascinating that we assume that we know because of a limited set of data. It just doesn't make sense to me. Maybe it won't, I hope it won't. But how can we be so sure.
And again, I'm not therefore advocating for lockdown, but simple measure like mask wearing seems to be a low cost safeguard
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Offline Ergel

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #284 on: June 14, 2020, 01:40:12 PM »
Like everything nowadays. If it fits the narrative they know what they are talking about. If it doesn't fit the narrative then they don't know what they are talking about.


This. Which is to say, we've learned nothing
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #285 on: June 14, 2020, 01:45:11 PM »

And again, I'm not therefore advocating for lockdown, but simple measure like mask wearing seems to be a low cost safeguard

IIRC I posted elsewhere 'round here. Going too far and extreme one way, simply backfired.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #286 on: June 14, 2020, 01:56:34 PM »
By all accounts, especially the articles and studies you are all posting here multiple times a day, the knowledge and understanding of this virus is growing exponentially by the day. If you've seen the damage this can do, why wouldn't you take precautions, even if there's a low chance of it hitting your community again?

At the risk of using a tired comparison, meteorologists get the weather wrong all the time. Do we take their word as gospel? Heck no. But when a storm is heading our way, we've got those sites on refresh. And when it's a super-storm, like a hurricane or a nor'easter, you take every precaution necessary, even if it will end up missing you. The risk here is high. This is possibly the biggest storm we've faced in our lifetime. Why are we ignoring medical advice because they got some things wrong in the past?

As for the argument that you don't need experts to explain to you what you're seeing with your own eyes, I'd like you to see the eye of a hurricane. Some of the most beautiful weather happens before the back end of the storm demolishes everything in it's path.

Some of you play stocks. Buffett has history, and is respected because of it. That doesn't mean you always agree or follow his lead, but when he talks, you pay attention. Fauci made his career on HIV. A disease that was considered a death sentence when he started is now as manageable as diabetes. By all accounts, it was a terrifying disease and one we still take serious precautions to avoid. When it comes to Covid, his concerns aren't just treatment or deaths, but of long-term effects for people of all ages. If he spent 30 years on HIV, and he tells you that THIS virus scares him more than that, why wouldn't you pay attention?
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #287 on: June 14, 2020, 02:02:13 PM »
At the risk of using a tired comparison, meteorologists get the weather wrong all the time. Do we take their word as gospel? Heck no. But when a storm is heading our way, we've got those sites on refresh. And when it's a super-storm, like a hurricane or a nor'easter, you take every precaution necessary, even if it will end up missing you. The risk here is high. This is possibly the biggest storm we've faced in our lifetime. Why are we ignoring medical advice because they got some things wrong in the past?
This is actually the perfect example, the more meteorologists are "overly cautious" and the more they're wrong about incoming major storms that don't happen the less people listen to them and the more people stay home when there is a real dangerous storm.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Ergel

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #288 on: June 14, 2020, 02:04:33 PM »
This is actually the perfect example, the more meteorologists are "overly cautious" and the more they're wrong about incoming major storms that don't happen the less people listen to them and the more people stay home when there is a real dangerous storm.
Love it. Now we are blaming the experts that we aren't listening to them. As if that will give us some solace if in the end they are right
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #289 on: June 14, 2020, 02:07:11 PM »
Love it. Now we are blaming the experts that we aren't listening to them. As if that will give us some solace if in the end they are right
If you want to know why people don't listen to "experts" it's because they have a CYA mentality so they always lean toward being cautious. Most people are not interested in listening to what an expert says to CHA.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Ergel

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #290 on: June 14, 2020, 02:10:45 PM »
If you want to know why people don't listen to "experts" it's because they have a CYA mentality so they always lean toward being cautious. Most people are not interested in listening to what an expert says to CHA.
Love it. Now we are blaming the experts that we aren't listening to them. As if that will give us some solace if in the end they are right
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #291 on: June 14, 2020, 02:12:54 PM »
This is actually the perfect example, the more meteorologists are "overly cautious" and the more they're wrong about incoming major storms that don't happen the less people listen to them and the more people stay home when there is a real dangerous storm.

If you live in an area that has seen real devastation from weather, you listen to the meteorologists even though they've been wrong before. And even when you think the storm will miss, you make sure you have water and non-perishables stocked up. NY/NJ Jews aren't living in a place where doctors have been wrong time and time again. They don't live in a place where the storm has consistently missed them. The doctors were wrong on some things, and they were late to warn everyone of the dangers. As a result, the Jewish communities were hit with their highest death tolls in 70 years. If anything, wouldn't it pay to be more cautious than the doctors?
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #292 on: June 14, 2020, 02:32:01 PM »
If you want to know why people don't listen to "experts" it's because they have a CYA mentality so they always lean toward being cautious. Most people are not interested in listening to what an expert says to CHA.
Why do you belittle the experts?  An expert is simply someone with knowledge, skills, competence in a particular field.  I consider them all of value, as they can provide something that I lack. 

We have our own terms for "expert":
  • expert in education = michanech
  • expert in community affairs = askan
  • expert in halacha = posek
  • expert in credit cards = Dan
Sure, they're human, they make mistakes, we don't always agree with them or obey them. 
But we value their expertise, don't we?

Offline B.D.Da'ehu

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #293 on: June 14, 2020, 02:35:28 PM »
IIRC I posted elsewhere 'round here. Going too far and extreme one way, simply backfired.
As I posted elsewhere 'round here.. Because authorities went too far you now will no longer take some simple steps to protect yourself, your family and your community?


What's with this disdain when one mentions you should wear a mask and not pretend covid is done for good?


Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #294 on: June 14, 2020, 02:40:09 PM »
Why do you belittle the experts?  An expert is simply someone with knowledge, skills, competence in a particular field.  I consider them all of value, as they can provide something that I lack. 

We have our own terms for "expert":
  • expert in education = michanech
  • expert in community affairs = askan
  • expert in halacha = posek
  • expert in credit cards = Dan
Sure, they're human, they make mistakes, we don't always agree with them or obey them. 
But we value their expertise, don't we?
Of course we value their expertise, we also value the freedom to not be forced to listen to their predictions based on worst case scenario.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #295 on: June 14, 2020, 02:40:52 PM »
As I posted elsewhere 'round here.. Because authorities went too far you now will no longer take some simple steps to protect yourself, your family and your community?


What's with this disdain when one mentions you should wear a mask and not pretend covid is done for good?
masks make it difficult to breathe, you make it sound like wearing a mask is not without it's own problems.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #296 on: June 14, 2020, 02:43:07 PM »
As I posted elsewhere 'round here.. Because authorities went too far you now will no longer take some simple steps to protect yourself, your family and your community?


What's with this disdain when one mentions you should wear a mask and not pretend covid is done for good?

My immediate family and almost anyone I know in my community had the virus and recovered. Who do you suggest we protect from whom?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #297 on: June 14, 2020, 02:44:08 PM »
masks make it difficult to breathe, you make it sound like wearing a mask is not without it's own problems.

And some shoes make it difficult to walk. You don't say, "Screw it, I'm going barefoot." You spend a little time and a little money and find a better fitting shoe.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #298 on: June 14, 2020, 02:54:19 PM »
Why do you belittle the experts?  An expert is simply someone with knowledge, skills, competence in a particular field.  I consider them all of value, as they can provide something that I lack. 

We have our own terms for "expert":
  • expert in education = michanech
  • expert in community affairs = askan
  • expert in halacha = posek
  • expert in credit cards = Dan
Sure, they're human, they make mistakes, we don't always agree with them or obey them. 
But we value their expertise, don't we?
Now you went of the deep end with that last one. Dan never makes mistakes!
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Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #299 on: June 14, 2020, 02:56:22 PM »
Lol, if only.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.