Is there a second wave?

[ExGingi]

As for the argument that you don't need experts to explain to you what you're seeing with your own eyes, I'd like you to see the eye of a hurricane. Some of the most beautiful weather happens before the back end of the storm demolishes everything in it's path.

Some of you play stocks. Buffett has history, and is respected because of it. That doesn't mean you always agree or follow his lead, but when he talks, you pay attention. Fauci made his career on HIV. A disease that was considered a death sentence when he started is now as manageable as diabetes. By all accounts, it was a terrifying disease and one we still take serious precautions to avoid. When it comes to Covid, his concerns aren't just treatment or deaths, but of long-term effects for people of all ages. If he spent 30 years on HIV, and he tells you that THIS virus scares him more than that, why wouldn't you pay attention?

בבא קמא פה ע״א

דתניא דבי ר' ישמעאל אומר ורפא ירפא מכאן שניתן רשות לרופא לרפאות

Doctors have been granted limited authority. Scaring people or spreading fear and panic isn't within their granted mandate.

As for your weather analogy, I hope you do realize the flaws. In case you don't, it's akin to a community that was hit by a hurricane, some structures succumbed, most survived fully in tact, yet the "experts" are putting mandatory vacate orders in place on all structures, when they have no evidence that another storm is coming (and it seems to most observers that most structures are strong enough to withstand a hurricane even IF one were to come).

[PlatinumGuy]

בבא קמא פה ע״א

דתניא דבי ר' ישמעאל אומר ורפא ירפא מכאן שניתן רשות לרופא לרפאות

Doctors have been granted limited authority. Scaring people or spreading fear and panic isn't within their granted mandate.

That has nothing to do with the Gemara you quoted. Doctors needed permission to act as a שליח and heal as a representative of G-d, who is the only healer. There is no need for similar authorization to scare people.

It is the duty of anybody with knowledge of forthcoming danger to scare people and spread panic. Had our community leaders done so in March, many lives would have been spared.

[ExGingi]

That has nothing to do with the Gemara you quoted. Doctors needed permission to act as a שליח and heal as a representative of G-d, who is the only healer. There is no need for similar authorization to scare people.

It is the duty of anybody with knowledge of forthcoming danger to scare people and spread panic. Had our community leaders done so in March, many lives would have been spared.

Duty to scare people? To spread panic? What's your source for that?

The quote I brought was about the "enumerated powers" given to Doctors.

[PlatinumGuy]

The quote I brought was about the "enumerated powers" given to Doctors.

Yes, but does your quote mean a doctor doesn't have the power of speech? The power to heal required specific delegation. Other powers are inherent.

Duty to scare people? To spread panic? What's your source for that?

לא תעמוד על דם רעיך

[avromie7]

That has nothing to do with the Gemara you quoted. Doctors needed permission to act as a שליח and heal as a representative of G-d, who is the only healer. There is no need for similar authorization to scare people.

It is the duty of anybody with knowledge of forthcoming danger to scare people and spread panic. Had our community leaders done so in March, many lives would have been spared.

Unwarranted panic (which describes most of the panic related to COVID) is directly responsible for people not listening to any guidance. It is the reason people are sceptical about anything "experts" say.

[PlatinumGuy]

Unwarranted panic (which describes most of the panic related to COVID)

People said that in March too.

is directly responsible for people not listening to any guidance. It is the reason people are sceptical about anything "experts" say.

Speculation

[ExGingi]

Yes, but does your quote mean a doctor doesn't have the power of speech? The power to heal required specific delegation. Other powers are inherent.
לא תעמוד על דם רעיך

The authority to spread panic isn't inherent.

There's a huge difference between לא תעמוד על דם רעך and spreading panic and fear.

Panic and fear can have grave effects.

[PlatinumGuy]

The authority to spread panic isn't inherent.

There's a huge difference between לא תעמוד על דם רעך and spreading panic and fear.

Panic and fear can have grave effects.

That's a completely different argument than your original one.

[Dan]

People said that in March too. 

Odd that people forget that.

[avromie7]

People said that in March too.

Probably because they were sceptical about what "experts" say.
 If I understand correctly, your position is:
Doctors - were wrong in March but everyone should just listen to what they say now without question.

Regular people - were wrong in March so anything a regular person says should be dismissed in favor of what the doctor says.

Speculation

First hand experiance.

That's a completely different argument than your original one.

That's how I understood what he originally said.

[Lurker]

As for your weather analogy, I hope you do realize the flaws. In case you don't, it's akin to a community that was hit by a hurricane, some structures succumbed, most survived fully in tact, yet the "experts" are putting mandatory vacate orders in place on all structures, when they have no evidence that another storm is coming (and it seems to most observers that most structures are strong enough to withstand a hurricane even IF one were to come).

All analogies are imperfect. There are some issues with your interpretation of this one, though. First of all, you're assuming the storm has passed and you're talking about another storm. By all accounts, this storm has not passed. It may not be in your neighborhood at this exact moment, but it is still going strong. Second, no one is asking anyone to evacuate, just continue to take precautions. Third, it's deeper than the superficial "some structures succumbed, most survived fully intact" analogy that you posit. People have died. People have been injured. While most houses remain intact and structurally sound, there have been others which sustained damage in the many degrees between whole and gone. Just because you think your house is sound, and you may have very good reason to believe so, there are no guarantees there. Furthermore, even if your home is sound, that says nothing about your shul, your business, your neighbor's home or business, or your community's infrastructure.

As an aside, I believe you're making the mistake I see time and again from people in the NY/NJ area, which is lumping doctors and government together when talking about "authorities." I get that your government has been excessively harsh in their approach, but that has nothing to do with following medical advice.

[PlatinumGuy]

Odd that people forget that.

Yup. The Corona Is Over camp applies no reasoning whatsoever. The thread should be renamed 'How can there not be a second wave?' They are full of claims that Corona is gone, but not one of them can explain it, and there is absolute evidence that it will return. (Irans' second wave, full viral sequencing showing no mutation, confined ships showing 60%+ of the population is susceptible, and countless seroprevalence studies showing no more than 20% immunity in EU/US)

[biobook]

@avromie7 and @ExGingi - I'm puzzled by what you saw as "spreading panic and fear".
 
When I have to make a choice in an unfamiliar situation, I want to hear what the worst case scenario might be.  Asking "what's the worst that could happen" is part of what's needed for making an informed decision. 

[avromie7]

As an aside, I believe you're making the mistake I see time and again from people in the NY/NJ area, which is lumping doctors and government together when talking about "authorities." I get that your government has been excessively harsh in their approach, but that has nothing to do with following medical advice.

This is something the government and media are responsible for. Regular people don't understand epidemiology reports, all they know is what they hear from the government (who claims everything is science based) and the media as well as some doctors who send voice notes and claim 25% of their community will die from the pandemic.

[PlatinumGuy]

The government and the media were never reliable sources of information. Blaming them merely exposes the accusers lack of understanding on the actual debate. Their opinion, then as in now, is completely irrelevant to the actual question at hand.

[avromie7]

The government and the media were never reliable sources of information. Blaming them merely exposes the accusers lack of understanding on the actual debate. Their opinion, then as in now, is completely irrelevant to the actual question at hand.

That's the most feasible source of information for most people, as well as voice notes from dr doom & gloom who told his community that 25% of them would die.

[ExGingi]

As an aside, I believe you're making the mistake I see time and again from people in the NY/NJ area, which is lumping doctors and government together when talking about "authorities." I get that your government has been excessively harsh in their approach, but that has nothing to do with following medical advice.

You're partially right. I shouldn't be lumping together doctors and authorities. One of the most senior doctors in my community has been saying weeks ago that schools should be open. I was also told on Shabbos by a senior Hatzolah member that same doctor was of the opinion that seniors and vulnerable people should quarantine, while the rest of the community should mingle and acquire herd immunity. (As far as I understood this was at the point when the proverbial genie was already out).

And let me understand the position, at what point do you say life can return to normal? When a vaccine is out? Why would that vaccine provide any better immunity than the actual virus?

[Lurker]

This is something the government and media are responsible for. Regular people don't understand epidemiology reports, all they know is what they hear from the government (who claims everything is science based) and the media as well as some doctors who send voice notes and claim 25% of their community will die from the pandemic.

Why is it whenever someone tries to explain why we should be doing things differently, we blame the government and media for why we don't need to listen now? How can you make that argument and not feel ignorant? There's is no one on DDF who isn't better than that, and that excuse needs to go away.

[PlatinumGuy]

That's how I understood what he originally said.

There is little point in this argument, but I am bored enough.
ֿ
He originally stated Doctors have a limited mandate of ורפא ירפא, which only includes healing people and therefore doctors don't have a mandate to scare people at all.

The second argument was that in this case the panic is unjustified and therefore unecessailry dangerous, hence even if they weren't constrained by the boundaries of ורפא ירפא, it would be wrong of them to sow panic.

My answers still stand to both arguments.

1)

That has nothing to do with the Gemara you quoted. Doctors needed permission to act as a שליח and heal as a representative of G-d, who is the only healer. There is no need for similar authorization to scare people.

It is the duty of anybody with knowledge of forthcoming danger to scare people and spread panic. Had our community leaders done so in March, many lives would have been spared.

2)

People said that in March too.

So it very well may be warranted.

That's the most feasible source of information for most people, as well as voice notes from dr doom & gloom who told his community that 25% of them would die.

Reminds me of a kid who was so bitter that his parents wronged him, that he decided he doesn't have to bother brushing his teeth.

[Lurker]

You're partially right. I shouldn't be lumping together doctors and authorities. One of the most senior doctors in my community has been saying weeks ago that schools should be open. I was also told on Shabbos by a senior Hatzolah member that same doctor was of the opinion that seniors and vulnerable people should quarantine, while the rest of the community should mingle and acquire herd immunity. (As far as I understood this was at the point when the proverbial genie was already out).

And let me understand the position, at what point do you say life can return to normal? When a vaccine is out? Why would that vaccine provide any better immunity than the actual virus?

A) That same doctor is also trying his hardest to make sure that the entire CH community essentially self-isolated together, with no outside visitors. That shows how important he thinks it is. And if that isolation isn't possible, other precautions need to be taken.

B) I don't know. And I'm tired of that not being an acceptable answer. That doesn't mean that all reason goes out the window. You sell life insurance precisely because there are things in life we don't know. That doesn't mean we do nothing. We take whatever steps we can to protect ourselves, our families, friends, communities, homes and businesses.