Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 100183 times)

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #340 on: June 14, 2020, 05:51:10 PM »
Let me give you an example from our community:
Protect who?
RCSDBL has been locked up at home since after Purim. BH feeling well. this week he was able to leave home for the 1st time for an outdoor simcha. don't you think he'd LOVE to visit his beloved 770? (וכהנה כו"כ לכאורה)
His brother has been locked up for months too. He had no symptoms. This past Shabbos he had Yahrzeit and sat together with me at the farbrengen where we heard what I described above from a senior Hatzolah member.

Quote
from who?
according to the guidance of our "society", he should be able to. UNTIL next week when the broader Lubavitch community has every intention of ignoring the request against visiting (because: "it's over already/c'mon/it's just me/the vulnerable are locked up/really?" take your pick)

or from:
Indoor weddings with OOT guests. 2 a night.

Or:
bochurim coming back to yeshivos (as they perhaps should) from communities that don't have the (earned-in-blood) herd immunity that we do. Is someone guiding them on the proper precautions so they don't bring in a 2nd wave? is there any accountability at all? or איש הישר בעיניו יעשה?

How will my wearing a mask make any difference in those scenarios?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline gozalim

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #341 on: June 14, 2020, 06:01:34 PM »
His brother has been locked up for months too. He had no symptoms. This past Shabbos he had Yahrzeit and sat together with me at the farbrengen where we heard what I described above from a senior Hatzolah member.
which is why I am advocating that when those senior hatzalah people/doctors give guidance we should listen, not pick and choose the parts we like (everyone is safe) and discard the parts we don't like (continue SD measures, no kiddushim in shul, continue to prefer outdoor events, get a handle on indoor weddings/no visitors/etc.)

My other point is: herd immunity isn't zero. there are some (few), vulnerable victims, some (few, outside) sources of infection, and some (few) un-immune local carriers (me). it would do us well to maintain some small degree of precautions, whatever our local experts are suggesting (they've been wrong. אתה צודק. please אל תהיה צודק תהיה חכם). I don't know about you, but I lost enough relatives this year.


Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #342 on: June 14, 2020, 06:59:12 PM »
Can you elaborate on this? I'm curious what you mean by this
I as well as many other (including @ExGingi) find it very uncomfortable to wear a mask. I wear a mask when it's mandated and have no issue with a thought out decision based on facts (not cuomo or murphys mood) that masks are necessary. I take issue with those who say some form of "just wear a mask" or "it's not a big deal", because to many people it's incredibly uncomfortable.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #343 on: June 14, 2020, 07:01:08 PM »

How will my wearing a mask make any difference in those scenarios?

Seeing you wearing a mask will show the wedding guests, bochurim, etc, that it's expected in this community, and make it more likely that they'll reciprocate.

Even if it's not necessary for you personally, since you've been infected recently enough to (probably) still have immunity. 

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #344 on: June 14, 2020, 07:11:28 PM »

 I wholeheartedly agree that we should all be wearing masks where appropriate. However I've seen people driving alone in their cars while wearing masks. How do you explain that?

I noticed our mailman does that.  He probably gets in and out of the van so often that it's easier to just keep it on all day.

Also, it's probably safer to leave it on.  When we inhale, the oxygen gets through the mask, while presumably the viral particles stay on the outside.  So after breathing for a while, the outside of the mask should be considered infected.  Removing and touching it repeatedly would just spread those particles onto other surfaces, and it's better to leave it on and take it off only when you get somewhere where you can immediately wash your hands afterwards.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #345 on: June 14, 2020, 07:15:46 PM »
Seeing you wearing a mask will show the wedding guests, bochurim, etc, that it's expected in this community, and make it more likely that they'll reciprocate.
Sounds so idyllic, but unfortunately it's quite disconnected from reality.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #346 on: June 14, 2020, 07:17:57 PM »
Sounds so idyllic, but unfortunately it's quite disconnected from reality.
Make it real.  Or at least, start.

Offline gozalim

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #347 on: June 14, 2020, 07:18:09 PM »
Sounds so idyllic, but unfortunately it's quite disconnected from reality.
not quite.
I wear a mask also to protect myself. I practically need to excuse myself for wearing it

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #348 on: June 14, 2020, 07:25:19 PM »

Even if it's not necessary for you personally, since you've been infected recently enough to (probably) still have immunity.

Here you go insinuating stuff. This virus has been around for at least 7 months at this point now and there has not been a single confirmed reinfection. Why do you talk like that?

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #349 on: June 14, 2020, 07:26:19 PM »
I as well as many other (including @ExGingi) find it very uncomfortable to wear a mask. I wear a mask when it's mandated and have no issue with a thought out decision based on facts (not cuomo or murphys mood) that masks are necessary. I take issue with those who say some form of "just wear a mask" or "it's not a big deal", because to many people it's incredibly uncomfortable.
I feel for you, I really do.  I had to wear a mask for a while, a few years back, due to the medical condition of a family member, and the only reason I didn't complain was because I was very much aware that my carelessness could transmit a fatal infection to someone else.  But I never really got used to it, and wouldn't say "it's not a big deal."

Maybe if you post on the Masks thread others might have experience with various masks available today. 

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #350 on: June 14, 2020, 07:30:57 PM »
Here you go insinuating stuff. This virus has been around for at least 7 months at this point now and there has not been a single confirmed reinfection. Why do you talk like that?
This is from June 8, and things change so quickly that it might no longer be true, but here it is anyway:

Dr Bauchner:Are most people developing IgG and IgM antibodies?

Dr Fauci:They are, but the titers really, really vary. I have examples of people who clearly were infected who are antibody negative. They probably have such a low titer of antibody that it’s below the level of the cutoff. And then there are others that have very robust antibody responses. It isn’t a uniformly robust antibody response, which may be a reason why, when you look at the history of the common coronaviruses that cause the common cold, the reports in the literature are that the durability of immunity that’s protective ranges from 3 to 6 months to almost always less than a year. That’s not a lot of durability of protection. It may be completely different with this coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2]. It may be that people induce a response that’s quite durable. But if it acts like common coronaviruses, it likely is not going to be a very long duration of immunity.

source:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2767208

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #351 on: June 14, 2020, 07:31:51 PM »
not quite.
I wear a mask also to protect myself. I practically need to excuse myself for wearing it
At what point, if ever, will you stop wearing a mask?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline gozalim

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #352 on: June 14, 2020, 07:38:38 PM »
At what point, if ever, will you stop wearing a mask?
In indoor settings? where others aren't all immune? probably once there's a vaccine...

Unless our local professionals have some different guidance

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #353 on: June 14, 2020, 07:39:47 PM »
This is from June 8, and things change so quickly that it might no longer be true, but here it is anyway:

Dr Bauchner:Are most people developing IgG and IgM antibodies?

Dr Fauci:They are, but the titers really, really vary. I have examples of people who clearly were infected who are antibody negative. They probably have such a low titer of antibody that it’s below the level of the cutoff. And then there are others that have very robust antibody responses. It isn’t a uniformly robust antibody response, which may be a reason why, when you look at the history of the common coronaviruses that cause the common cold, the reports in the literature are that the durability of immunity that’s protective ranges from 3 to 6 months to almost always less than a year. That’s not a lot of durability of protection. It may be completely different with this coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2]. It may be that people induce a response that’s quite durable. But if it acts like common coronaviruses, it likely is not going to be a very long duration of immunity.

source:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2767208
You didn’t address the point that I made though.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #354 on: June 14, 2020, 07:43:31 PM »
In indoor settings? where others aren't all immune? probably once there's a vaccine...

For some reason, unless this country goes the Singapore route (which might be not so far fetched, I heard a news story last week that the DOT will be providing millions of masks to airlines and commuter rail operators), you might be one of the last ones wearing a mask.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #355 on: June 14, 2020, 07:46:21 PM »
You didn’t address the point that I made though.
Personally, I wonder about one point- if the “prior immunity” that has been theorized is indeed a fact, and indeed comes from exposure to other corona viruses (as the studies you have posted a couple of times seem to suggest), doesn't that mean that those people who were exposed to COVID-19 and didn’t get infected (due to this immunity) are likely to become susceptible to infection again once the immunity to the previous coronavirus wears off EVEN if they were indeed previously (temporarily) immune?
Quote from: YitzyS
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #356 on: June 14, 2020, 07:46:58 PM »
For some reason, unless this country goes the Singapore route (which might be not so far fetched, I heard a news story last week that the DOT will be providing millions of masks to airlines and commuter rail operators), you might be one of the last ones wearing a mask.
You mean in CH or America?
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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #357 on: June 14, 2020, 07:50:33 PM »
Personally, I wonder about one point- if the “prior immunity” that has been theorized is indeed a fact, and indeed comes from exposure to other corona viruses (as the studies you have posted a couple of times seem to suggest), doesn't that mean that those people who were exposed to COVID-19 and didn’t get infected (due to this immunity) are likely to become susceptible to infection again once the immunity to the previous coronavirus wears off EVEN if they were indeed previously (temporarily) immune?
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1.full.pdf

This study “may” show that immunity which stems from T cells last a long time.

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #358 on: June 14, 2020, 07:51:33 PM »
For some reason, unless this country goes the Singapore route (which might be not so far fetched, I heard a news story last week that the DOT will be providing millions of masks to airlines and commuter rail operators), you might be one of the last ones wearing a mask.
100% mask compliance in my backyard minyan.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #359 on: June 14, 2020, 08:02:40 PM »
100% mask compliance in my backyard minyan.
For how much longer? Until there's a vaccine?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan