Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 100215 times)

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #360 on: June 14, 2020, 08:11:05 PM »
You didn’t address the point that I made though.
Sorry, I may not have understood.
I thought you were asking why I said that someone who's had covid recently "probably" still has immunity, rather than definitely has immunity.
My answer was that we can't be certain how long immunity lasts for this coronavirus, and it might be less than a year.

If I misunderstood your point, please rephrase and I'll try to respond.

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #361 on: June 14, 2020, 08:21:07 PM »
For how much longer? Until there's a vaccine?
Low cost/high benefit.
Why stop as long as the virus is still holding its own? If cases were to go close to nil, we'd stop I'm sure.
We had one attendee coming who caught COVID recently and recovered.

We do have anti-maskers boycotting, you'll never please everyone. Interestingly, they haven't made their own minyan.
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Offline gozalim

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #362 on: June 14, 2020, 08:24:10 PM »
For how much longer? Until there's a vaccine?
in CLE why wouldn't they? Dan is the outlier with immunity who may get an exemption, the rest of them are (rightly) quaking in their boots.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #363 on: June 14, 2020, 08:29:31 PM »
in CLE why wouldn't they? Dan is the outlier with immunity who may get an exemption, the rest of them are (rightly) quaking in their boots.

I am not disagreeing with you here. @Dan decided to interject so I asked him. I honestly think Crown Heights, Williamsburg and Boro Park, Monsey and KJ (and possibly Lakewood, IDK) are in a very different situation than the rest of the country and should be treated as such.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #364 on: June 14, 2020, 08:35:42 PM »
Personally, I wonder about one point- if the “prior immunity” that has been theorized is indeed a fact, and indeed comes from exposure to other corona viruses (as the studies you have posted a couple of times seem to suggest), doesn't that mean that those people who were exposed to COVID-19 and didn’t get infected (due to this immunity) are likely to become susceptible to infection again once the immunity to the previous coronavirus wears off EVEN if they were indeed previously (temporarily) immune?
I think so.  I had a similar thought when I read that Fauci quote:

If immunity lasts 3-12 months, the people who first lose immunity and become susceptible to re-infection should be among those who had been infected earliest. 

Hopefully, we get insight about re-infections from China before we're faced with this possibility ourselves.

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #365 on: June 14, 2020, 08:42:15 PM »
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1.full.pdf

This study “may” show that immunity which stems from T cells last a long time.

Okay, I have only a vague memory of learning about T cells in my introductory biology course, so this article may be overwhelming, but there have been several mentions of T cells here recently, so I'll see if I can figure this out.  Might take a few days.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #366 on: June 14, 2020, 08:47:53 PM »
We do have anti-maskers boycotting, you'll never please everyone. Interestingly, they haven't made their own minyan.

Why would they make their own minyan? What would they oppose then (or alternatively, at that point they'll be opposing something else and will have to boycott for another reason, until they splinter into such small groups that there will be no thinking of a remote possibility of a minyan).

Here's the (NYC area communities) problem the way I see it: We had three distinct phases, the early spread, at which point some (insufficient) measures were put in place (I remember asking who is going to be the פרשנדתא after the 500 capacity limit is reached). The wildfire spreading stage (was virtually uncontrollable once it reached that) we suffered painful losses, and went into lock down. The curve turning and recovery phase - at this point we had measures that might have been appropriate in earlier stages put in place, and kept there for waaay too long, rather than trying to return to normal with reasonable measures.

I am sure that if Yeshivos, schools and shuls were permitted to open shortly after Pesach while requiring masks and maintaining some distancing and other reasonable restrictions, we would have seen much higher compliance lasting for long.
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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #367 on: June 14, 2020, 08:49:15 PM »
I think so.  I had a similar thought when I read that Fauci quote:

If immunity lasts 3-12 months, the people who first lose immunity and become susceptible to re-infection should be among those who had been infected earliest. 

Hopefully, we get insight about re-infections from China before we're faced with this possibility ourselves.
3-12 months-the virus has been around for 8 months and no reinfections.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #368 on: June 14, 2020, 08:50:19 PM »
3-12 months-the virus has been around for 8 months and no reinfections.
Stop confusing us....
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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #369 on: June 14, 2020, 08:56:09 PM »
Stop confusing us....
My point is that if something has been around for 8 months and there isn’t a single report of a reinfection it’s a little ridiculous to say that immunity may only last for 3 months.

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #370 on: June 14, 2020, 09:01:16 PM »
My point is that if something has been around for 8 months and there isn’t a single report of a reinfection it’s a little ridiculous to say that immunity may only last for 3 months.
It's been widespread in the US for 8 months? Cool story.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #371 on: June 14, 2020, 09:04:23 PM »
3-12 months-the virus has been around for 8 months and no reinfections.

That's great!  I'm overjoyed! Halevai veiter!

What Fauci was saying is that we have no way to predict how long immunity to this virus will last.  Perhaps the answer is - It will last a lifetime.  We have to wait and see.  But if we want to take a more educated guess, we should look at similar viruses, and for those viruses, immunity starts to wane after 3-12 months.

That does not mean that everyone gets re-infected 3 months after their first infection!  Re-infections are still rare, because they require both a decrease in immunity and an increase in exposure to the virus.  And there's a wide range in how individuals respond. 

IIRC, the article that we discussed a few weeks ago found that something like 15% of people who were diagnosed with a coronavirus infection had a second infection within a year.  (This was not covid, it was the other coronaviruses that cause milder cold symptoms.)

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #372 on: June 14, 2020, 09:08:12 PM »
It's been widespread in the US for 8 months? Cool story.
Do you just like attacking me without even reading what I said. Where did I say anything about it being specifically in the US?

The virus has been around the world for the last 8 months. I would think someone like you that does lots of traveling would know that there are other places but the US

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #373 on: June 14, 2020, 09:11:09 PM »
That's great!  I'm overjoyed! Halevai veiter!

What Fauci was saying is that we have no way to predict how long immunity to this virus will last.  Perhaps the answer is - It will last a lifetime.  We have to wait and see.  But if we want to take a more educated guess, we should look at similar viruses, and for those viruses, immunity starts to wane after 3-12 months.

That does not mean that everyone gets re-infected 3 months after their first infection!  Re-infections are still rare, because they require both a decrease in immunity and an increase in exposure to the virus.  And there's a wide range in how individuals respond. 

IIRC, the article that we discussed a few weeks ago found that something like 15% of people who were diagnosed with a coronavirus infection had a second infection within a year.  (This was not covid, it was the other coronaviruses that cause milder cold symptoms.)
You should take a look at the study I posted because it showed that people who had SARS had T cells which provided immunity to SARS-COV-2. Maybe this virus also produces the same type of immunity. My only point is that it’s more likely then not at this point that immunity lasts longer then some people were worried about.

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #374 on: June 14, 2020, 09:23:21 PM »
Do you just like attacking me without even reading what I said. Where did I say anything about it being specifically in the US?

The virus has been around the world for the last 8 months. I would think someone like you that does lots of traveling would know that there are other places but the US
Aha. So now we are believing what China has to say.
Just wanted to make sure we're on the same page.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #375 on: June 14, 2020, 09:38:33 PM »
You should take a look at the study I posted because it showed that people who had SARS had T cells which provided immunity to SARS-COV-2. Maybe this virus also produces the same type of immunity. My only point is that it’s more likely then not at this point that immunity lasts longer then some people were worried about.
Everybody hopes immunity lasts longer. 

These are the choices I see for our current behavior and the future:

A. We don't worry, be happy.  No one wears masks.
  • Immunity is long lived.  No one ever gets sick again. Magnificent!  ;D
  • Immunity is short lived.  Many people are taken by surprise and get seriously ill. Horrors!  :(
B. We do worry, a little.  We all wear masks.
  • Immunity is long lived. Nobody gets sick.  We feel like absolute dorks for having worn masks. ::)
  • Immunity is short lived.  Few people are taken by surprise, and only a few get sick. Sad. :(

Since we can't predict whether immunity will be long or short, we should opt for B.  We'll miss out on the Magnificent, but it's more important to avoid the Horror. 

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #376 on: June 14, 2020, 09:41:12 PM »
Not seeing it as a safek pikuach nefesh is considered arrogance?
Not at all. I have friends (BP Flatbush) who had symptoms yet complained that they were so bored bc all they were allowed to do was shop all day!
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #377 on: June 14, 2020, 09:41:28 PM »
Everybody hopes immunity lasts longer. 

These are the choices I see for our current behavior and the future:

A. We don't worry, be happy.  No one wears masks.
  • Immunity is long lived.  No one ever gets sick again. Magnificent!  ;D
  • Immunity is short lived.  Many people are taken by surprise and get seriously ill. Horrors!  :(
B. We do worry, a little.  We all wear masks.
  • Immunity is long lived. Nobody gets sick.  We feel like absolute dorks for having worn masks. ::)
  • Immunity is short lived.  Few people are taken by surprise, and only a few get sick. Sad. :(

Since we can't predict whether immunity will be long or short, we should opt for B.  We'll miss out on the Magnificent, but it's more important to avoid the Horror.

What about if immunity is short lived but the serious illness and mortality rates are significantly lower than before?

Don't forget, while the medical establishment still knows close to nothing about the spread and infection rates, or why certain people get certain symptoms while others get none (or other symptoms) they have definitely learned how to care for the ill.
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Offline yungermanchik

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #378 on: June 14, 2020, 09:42:28 PM »
Everybody hopes immunity lasts longer. 

These are the choices I see for our current behavior and the future:

A. We don't worry, be happy.  No one wears masks.
  • Immunity is long lived.  No one ever gets sick again. Magnificent!  ;D
  • Immunity is short lived.  Many people are taken by surprise and get seriously ill. Horrors!  :(
B. We do worry, a little.  We all wear masks.
  • Immunity is long lived. Nobody gets sick.  We feel like absolute dorks for having worn masks. ::)
  • Immunity is short lived.  Few people are taken by surprise, and only a few get sick. Sad. :(

Since we can't predict whether immunity will be long or short, we should opt for B.  We'll miss out on the Magnificent, but it's more important to avoid the Horror. 
I really don't get what you're saying. Even if immunity is "short-lived", by your own admission, it's not less than 3 months. So, for the 3 hottest months of the year, why should those with antibodies wear masks?
« Last Edit: June 14, 2020, 10:04:27 PM by yungermanchik »
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #379 on: June 14, 2020, 09:43:12 PM »
Aha. So now we are believing what China has to say.
Just wanted to make sure we're on the same page.
I'll grant you that Chinese politicians hid many details of the pandemic.  But I think answers to the big questions, like reinfections, will be shared.  Much of what is learned is communicated directly between individual scientists, who have contacts and experience in both countries.  Note that the authors of that article on masks were almost all Chinese or Chinese-Americans.