Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 100109 times)

Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #380 on: June 14, 2020, 09:44:05 PM »
For how much longer? Until there's a vaccine?
Ha!!!! Do you think a vaccine will change anything? Let us learn from the great talk show heads.... There is always something to complain about....
Wait until the Vaccicne is released and we are going to be urged to take full precautions bc idk maybe not enough people are vaccinated? Or who said this vaccine works when mass produced? Or well we've been wearing mask for months so why stop now?
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Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #381 on: June 14, 2020, 09:45:43 PM »
I'll grant you that Chinese politicians hid many details of the pandemic.  But I think answers to the big questions, like reinfections, will be shared.  Much of what is learned is communicated directly between individual scientists, who have contacts and experience in both countries.  Note that the authors of that article on masks were almost all Chinese or Chinese-Americans.
Do we trust the Chinese at all.... speak to businessmen who work with them.... lying is very much ingrained in their nature and culture from what I hear.
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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #382 on: June 14, 2020, 09:47:08 PM »
Ha!!!! Do you think a vaccine will change anything? Let us learn from the great talk show heads.... There is always something to complain about....
Wait until the Vaccicne is released and we are going to be urged to take full precautions bc idk maybe not enough people are vaccinated? Or who said this vaccine works when mass produced? Or well we've been wearing mask for months so why stop now?
NYT has already posted an article that suggested that trump will push a vaccine through to try and win the election even if it is unsafe. One of the most dangerous pieces I’ve ever seen written anywhere.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/opinion/trump-coronavirus-vaccine.html

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #383 on: June 14, 2020, 10:10:48 PM »
Do you just like attacking me without even reading what I said. Where did I say anything about it being specifically in the US?

The virus has been around the world for the last 8 months. I would think someone like you that does lots of traveling would know that there are other places but the US
Aha. So now we are believing what China has to say.
Just wanted to make sure we're on the same page.
So, shall I put you down for "just when it's convenient?"
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #384 on: June 14, 2020, 10:11:25 PM »
I really don't get what you're saying. Even if immunity is "short-lived", by your own admission, it's not less than 3 months. So, for the 3 hottest months of the year, why should those with antibodies wear masks?

We can't be sure how long immunity to the COVID virus lasts.  Here's one way we can find out:  We take a group of people who were all infected around Purim, and once a month we inject them with coronavirus.  We do this for 3 months, 4 months, 8 months, 2 years... as long as it takes to find someone who gets sick a second time.  I've posted earlier on the ethical problems of doing an experiment like this.

The alternative we have is to simply wait... and see how long it takes for re-infections to be reported.  It might be never!  It's possible that immunity is lifelong.  But since we don't know, we have to continue to be careful, at last until a vaccine or a definitively effective treatment is developed.

The other alternative is to look for insight in the behavior of other coronaviruses.  For other coronaviruses, immunity may last 3-12 months, at least in some individuals.  From what we've seen so far, you are right:  It looks like it does last at least 8 months.  But remember, many of the people who were initially infected 8 months ago in China are continuing to SD and wear masks.  So the lack of reinfection may be partly due to continued immunity, and partly due to their protecting themselves from contact with the virus.

Re: the summer.  There's no reason to think that summer temperatures will stop the virus.  Covid was spreading in Florida during the winter/spring when temperatures were pleasantly warm.  There have been peaks of cases reported in Florida in the last few days, when temperatures were close to 90.  It's true that the virus seems to disintegrate faster in the heat... but so do humans.  We spend much of our summer days indoors, with cool air conditioning, so even if feel we can SD outdoors and remove the mask, we still should use it when near others or  indoors around others who might potentially be infected.

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #385 on: June 14, 2020, 10:17:31 PM »
We can't be sure how long immunity to the COVID virus lasts.  Here's one way we can find out:  We take a group of people who were all infected around Purim, and once a month we inject them with coronavirus.  We do this for 3 months, 4 months, 8 months, 2 years... as long as it takes to find someone who gets sick a second time.  I've posted earlier on the ethical problems of doing an experiment like this.
Isn't is also possible that each time you inject them with covid that it will act as a booster shot so their body will keep remembering how to fight it?
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Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #386 on: June 14, 2020, 10:18:53 PM »
NYT has already posted an article that suggested that trump will push a vaccine through to try and win the election even if it is unsafe. One of the most dangerous pieces I’ve ever seen written anywhere.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/opinion/trump-coronavirus-vaccine.html
If I saw such a headline from Forbes or MSN I would assume it's a AI generated clickbait title.
This, is certified insanety.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #387 on: June 14, 2020, 10:19:02 PM »
What about if immunity is short lived but the serious illness and mortality rates are significantly lower than before?
Obviously that would be great.   We should hope for the best, but plan for the worst.


Don't forget, while the medical establishment still knows close to nothing about the spread and infection rates, or why certain people get certain symptoms while others get none (or other symptoms) they have definitely learned how to care for the ill.
I would say they have learned how to better care for the ill.  I don't think any doctor would say "Don't worry about getting COVID, we know exactly how to cure it."

Offline yungermanchik

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #388 on: June 14, 2020, 10:20:50 PM »
We can't be sure how long immunity to the COVID virus lasts.  Here's one way we can find out:  We take a group of people who were all infected around Purim, and once a month we inject them with coronavirus.  We do this for 3 months, 4 months, 8 months, 2 years... as long as it takes to find someone who gets sick a second time.  I've posted earlier on the ethical problems of doing an experiment like this.

The alternative we have is to simply wait... and see how long it takes for re-infections to be reported.  It might be never!  It's possible that immunity is lifelong.  But since we don't know, we have to continue to be careful, at last until a vaccine or a definitively effective treatment is developed.

The other alternative is to look for insight in the behavior of other coronaviruses.  For other coronaviruses, immunity may last 3-12 months, at least in some individuals.  From what we've seen so far, you are right:  It looks like it does last at least 8 months.  But remember, many of the people who were initially infected 8 months ago in China are continuing to SD and wear masks.  So the lack of reinfection may be partly due to continued immunity, and partly due to their protecting themselves from contact with the virus.

Re: the summer.  There's no reason to think that summer temperatures will stop the virus.  Covid was spreading in Florida during the winter/spring when temperatures were pleasantly warm.  There have been peaks of cases reported in Florida in the last few days, when temperatures were close to 90.  It's true that the virus seems to disintegrate faster in the heat... but so do humans.  We spend much of our summer days indoors, with cool air conditioning, so even if feel we can SD outdoors and remove the mask, we still should use it when near others or  indoors around others who might potentially be infected.
When I mentioned the hottest months of the year, I was just saying the downside of wearing masks.
It would seem at this point, that the risk of being reinfected (at least, within such a short time) is extremely low, and within the realm of normal life risks, such as crossing the street and operating a vehicle or heavy machinery. Not to say it is impossible, but such risks are beyond the reach of safek pikuach nefesh and are a part of living life.
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Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #389 on: June 14, 2020, 10:21:07 PM »
Isn't is also possible that each time you inject them with covid that it will act as a booster shot so their body will keep remembering how to fight it?
I was just typing out the same question lol. +1

Since this virus is so prevalent and contagious what are the chances that someone with antibodies (and taking advantage of em!) will be susceptible to reinfection?
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #390 on: June 14, 2020, 10:23:13 PM »
Isn't is also possible that each time you inject them with covid that it will act as a booster shot so their body will keep remembering how to fight it?
:) I was thinking about that as I wrote it...  Science is hard!
I think what we'd have to do is use several groups of people.  Some get injected only after 3 months, some only after 6 months, etc.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #391 on: June 14, 2020, 10:23:47 PM »
:) I was thinking about that as I wrote it...  Science is hard!
I think what we'd have to do is use several groups of people.  Some get injected only after 3 months, some only after 6 months, etc.
Where are you finding these volunteers?
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Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #392 on: June 14, 2020, 10:27:10 PM »
When I mentioned the hottest months of the year, I was just saying the downside of wearing masks.
It would seem at this point, that the risk of being reinfected (at least, within such a short time) is extremely low, and within the realm of normal life risks, such as crossing the street and operating a vehicle or heavy machinery. Not to say it is impossible, but such risks are beyond the reach of safek pikuach nefesh and are a part of living life.
Assuming that what you are saying is medically accurate such a policy would be impossible as once people relax it will he harder for 'rule makers' to start enforcing again later.
@ExGingi said something similar that had NY allowed a rational reopening people would have complied instead of throwing out everything.
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Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #393 on: June 14, 2020, 10:28:52 PM »
Where are you finding these volunteers?
:) I was thinking about that as I wrote it...  Science is hard!
I think what we'd have to do is use several groups of people.  Some get injected only after 3 months, some only after 6 months, etc.
This question is not specifically in your theoretical study but very much in the real world with those with antibodies getting exposed/ injected with the virus constantly
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Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #394 on: June 14, 2020, 10:29:55 PM »
@biobook you gotta slow down with your posts.... I was really impressed by your like to post ratio.... :)
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #395 on: June 14, 2020, 10:46:00 PM »
When I mentioned the hottest months of the year, I was just saying the downside of wearing masks.
It would seem at this point, that the risk of being reinfected (at least, within such a short time) is extremely low, and within the realm of normal life risks, such as crossing the street and operating a vehicle or heavy machinery. Not to say it is impossible, but such risks are beyond the reach of safek pikuach nefesh and are a part of living life.

I agree that based on what we know so far, the risk of reinfection in the immediate future seems low.  That's why I wrote a few pages ago that someone who was recently infected "probably" has immunity. 

But what to do in the summer?  I think that mask wearing should be more prevalent that it apparently is in the NY/NJ communities, based on what people are saying here.  But certainly if someone finds that mask-wearing makes them overheated to the point of fainting in the street, they may not be able to wear it. 

I don't know where one draws the boundary between safek pikuach nefesh and a part of living life. We do cross streets, but only after looking both ways.  We do operate a vehicle, but only after fastening the seat belts.  I think masks belong in the same category - a safety feature that we hope will be unnecessary, but we use, just in case.   

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #396 on: June 14, 2020, 10:48:05 PM »
So, shall I put you down for "just when it's convenient?"
Whatever you want to because you don’t seem to care about what I write anyways

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #397 on: June 14, 2020, 10:48:29 PM »
Where are you finding these volunteers?
Did I see a raised hand?  ;)

It's theoretical.  In the earlier post I described why this would be difficult to do ethically.

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #398 on: June 14, 2020, 10:58:56 PM »
Whatever you want to because you don’t seem to care about what I write anyways
But I do, that's why I called out your contradiction which ruffled some feathers clearly. Whether you're going to admit it or deflect is another story.
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Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #399 on: June 14, 2020, 11:01:15 PM »
Did I see a raised hand?  ;)

It's theoretical.  In the earlier post I described why this would be difficult to do ethically.

This question is not specifically in your theoretical study but very much in the real world with those with antibodies getting exposed/ injected with the virus constantly
?
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