Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 100309 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #400 on: June 14, 2020, 11:04:18 PM »
I can't keep up with all this. Can someone add a wiki?
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Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #401 on: June 14, 2020, 11:05:16 PM »
I can't keep up with all this. Can someone add a wiki?

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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #402 on: June 14, 2020, 11:10:07 PM »
But I do, that's why I called out your contradiction which ruffled some feathers clearly. Whether you're going to admit it or deflect is another story.
Which contradiction?

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #403 on: June 14, 2020, 11:20:03 PM »
Which contradiction?
IIRC you've discounted information coming from China before, which is a fair position to take given their cover-ups about the origin and everything else until late January, which is 5 months max.

Now you're waiving around 8 months of history as if you do trust early data from China and some mumbo jumbo about not reading what you wrote.

Do you just like attacking me without even reading what I said. Where did I say anything about it being specifically in the US?

The virus has been around the world for the last 8 months. I would think someone like you that does lots of traveling would know that there are other places but the US

Which one is it? Are we relying on their data? Or where do you get 8 months from?
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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #404 on: June 14, 2020, 11:26:56 PM »
IIRC you've discounted information coming from China before, which is a fair position to take given their cover-ups about the origin and everything else until late January, which is 5 months max.

Now you're waiving around 8 months of history as if you do trust early data from China and some mumbo jumbo about not reading what you wrote.

Which one is it? Are we relying on their data? Or where do you get 8 months from?
I don’t recall discounting info from China before. I think that the whole China covering up 40-50k deaths makes no sense based on the mortality rates we’ve seen around the world. I don’t see why at this point they would cover up news about reinfections.

China definitely did try and cover up some of the early info coming out about the virus for political reasons but I don’t see how covering up something like this would provide any benefit.

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #405 on: June 14, 2020, 11:29:38 PM »
I don’t recall discounting info from China before. I think that the whole China covering up 40-50k deaths makes no sense based on the mortality rates we’ve seen around the world. I don’t see why at this point they would cover up news about reinfections.

China definitely did try and cover up some of the early info coming out about the virus for political reasons but I don’t see how covering up something like this would provide any benefit.
So they lied about the total deaths and they lied about early info, among other lies.
But we should believe that they would tell the world about reinfections from people who had it 8 months ago (3 months before they admitted this existed)?
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Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #406 on: June 14, 2020, 11:30:46 PM »

China definitely did try and cover up some of the early info coming out about the virus for political reasons but I don’t see how covering up something like this would provide any benefit.
Try to have the mindset of a Communist govt...
They are still nervous about being blamed for the virus.
They are even more nervous that people will be scared to do business with them (wont want to travel there and you cant trust them without being there in person, lack of confidence in workforce).

The healthier they portray themselves the better off they are.
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Offline yungermanchik

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #407 on: June 14, 2020, 11:42:31 PM »
I agree that based on what we know so far, the risk of reinfection in the immediate future seems low.  That's why I wrote a few pages ago that someone who was recently infected "probably" has immunity. 

But what to do in the summer?  I think that mask wearing should be more prevalent that it apparently is in the NY/NJ communities, based on what people are saying here.  But certainly if someone finds that mask-wearing makes them overheated to the point of fainting in the street, they may not be able to wear it. 

I don't know where one draws the boundary between safek pikuach nefesh and a part of living life. We do cross streets, but only after looking both ways.  We do operate a vehicle, but only after fastening the seat belts.  I think masks belong in the same category - a safety feature that we hope will be unnecessary, but we use, just in case.
First of all, if the risk of an immediate reinfection without any mask, is very low, why would it be different than driving a car with a seatbelt. Even with a seat belt, there is a possibility of mortal injury.
Second, why do you say "if someone finds that mask-wearing makes them overheated to the point of fainting in the street, they may not be able to wear it." Even if it's just causing a discomfort, it is not reasonable to expect for a far-fetched risk.
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Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #408 on: June 15, 2020, 10:22:20 AM »
First of all, if the risk of an immediate reinfection without any mask, is very low, why would it be different than driving a car with a seatbelt. Even with a seat belt, there is a possibility of mortal injury.
Second, why do you say "if someone finds that mask-wearing makes them overheated to the point of fainting in the street, they may not be able to wear it." Even if it's just causing a discomfort, it is not reasonable to expect for a far-fetched risk.
Many people find wearing a seatbelt uncomfortable, yet it’s mandated by law every time you drive. How many deaths do you think are prevented each year by people wearing seatbelts?

Don’t forget, you wearing a seatbelt won’t have an effect on anybody else’s life.
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Offline username

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #409 on: June 15, 2020, 07:47:17 PM »
Was there any uptick that the medical community is ascribing to the recent riots?
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Offline gozalim

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #410 on: June 15, 2020, 07:52:28 PM »
Was there any uptick that the medical community is ascribing to the recent riots?
Quote
City Hall confirmed that contact tracing workers hired by the city to trace the interactions of people infected with Covid-19, have been instructed not to ask anyone who’s tested positive for COVID-19 whether they recently attended a demonstration.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #411 on: June 15, 2020, 07:54:36 PM »
OK. So forget the medical community.
Are there any upticks that anyone is ascribing to the recent riots?
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #412 on: June 15, 2020, 07:55:15 PM »
And why wouldn't they ask?
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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #413 on: June 15, 2020, 07:55:36 PM »
And why wouldn't they ask?
So they won’t get ascribed to the riots.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #414 on: June 15, 2020, 07:56:00 PM »
OK. So forget the medical community.
Are there any upticks that anyone is ascribing to the recent riots?
Not as of yet

Offline yelped

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #415 on: June 15, 2020, 07:59:01 PM »

Which city is this? Shameful. What legitimate reason do they have for that?

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #416 on: June 15, 2020, 08:00:10 PM »
Which city is this?
Lol, do you have to ask?
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #417 on: June 15, 2020, 08:04:22 PM »
OK. So forget the medical community.
Are there any upticks that anyone is ascribing to the recent riots?
Wouldn't peaceful protesters be the major concern since that was/is what the overwhelming majority are?
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Offline EliJelly

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #418 on: June 15, 2020, 08:17:25 PM »

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #419 on: June 15, 2020, 08:40:16 PM »
OK. So forget the medical community.
Are there any upticks that anyone is ascribing to the recent riots?

Gozalim: City Hall confirmed that contact tracing workers hired by the city to trace the interactions of people infected with Covid-19, have been instructed not to ask anyone who’s tested positive for COVID-19 whether they recently attended a demonstration.

And why wouldn't they ask?
Good question!  Politicians, health professionals, and all of us would really like to know whether covid was spread by the protests, so the reason they're not asking is not because they don't want to know.

It's because People are not Google.  You don't just submit a question and automatically get a correct answer, especially when the question is about behavior that people might want to keep private.  And asking personal questions might make them leery about answering the questions you really need an answer to, which is known contacts to whom they may have transmitted covid.  Contact tracers' goal is to prevent future transmissions, not to research events in the past.   

Source and longer version:
https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave