Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 24958 times)

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 8672
  • Total likes: 2177
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 12
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #420 on: June 15, 2020, 08:55:29 PM »
Gozalim: City Hall confirmed that contact tracing workers hired by the city to trace the interactions of people infected with Covid-19, have been instructed not to ask anyone whoís tested positive for COVID-19 whether they recently attended a demonstration.
Good question!  Politicians, health professionals, and all of us would really like to know whether covid was spread by the protests, so the reason they're not asking is not because they don't want to know.

It's because People are not Google.  You don't just submit a question and automatically get a correct answer, especially when the question is about behavior that people might want to keep private.  And asking personal questions might make them leery about answering the questions you really need an answer to, which is known contacts to whom they may have transmitted covid.  Contact tracers' goal is to prevent future transmissions, not to research events in the past.   

Source and longer version:
https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave

There are enough ways to ask roundabout questions and get the answer 99% accurately. Just ask Israeli pollsters how they manage with people that try to manipulate the polls. They've gotten very good at it.

We are living through what might be the most politicized pandemic in mankind's history. Even HIV/AIDS politics pale in comparison.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Mikes@Micro

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 853
  • Total likes: 287
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: US
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #421 on: June 15, 2020, 08:56:54 PM »
There are enough ways to ask roundabout questions and get the answer 99% accurately. Just ask Israeli pollsters how they manage with people that try to manipulate the polls. They've gotten very good at it.
Just ask the pollsters from the 2016 elections
Quote or engagement  equals full throated endorsement and vote!
H/t PinchosL

Offline ari3

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Silver Elite
  • *****
  • Join Date: May 2016
  • Posts: 631
  • Total likes: 204
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
    • View Profile
  • Location: new jersey
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #422 on: June 15, 2020, 08:59:26 PM »
OK. So forget the medical community.
Are there any upticks that anyone is ascribing to the recent riots?
probably going to need at least a few more days for it to start showing up

Offline Mikes@Micro

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 853
  • Total likes: 287
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: US
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #423 on: June 15, 2020, 09:01:27 PM »
OK. So forget the medical community.
Are there any upticks that anyone is ascribing to the recent riots?
Who would dare ascribe it to rioting and risk the mobs wrath?
Quote or engagement  equals full throated endorsement and vote!
H/t PinchosL

Offline biobook

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite
  • ****
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 251
  • Total likes: 260
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #424 on: June 15, 2020, 09:06:08 PM »
There are enough ways to ask roundabout questions and get the answer 99% accurately. Just ask Israeli pollsters how they manage with people that try to manipulate the polls. They've gotten very good at it.
Yes, but that's not the purpose of contact tracing.  It's not intended for political polling, or academic research.  It's a public health issue, part of the plan for preventing a second wave of infection. That important goal should not be jeopardized by our curiosity about the more narrow question of the role of protests.

This is a well-known issue - at least well known to social workers, psychologists, public health workers (any here on DDF?) who have had experience in working with people with syphillis or HIV or mental health issues or drug abuse, or victims of spousal abuse or child abuse.  Asking the direct question is often not an effective way to get the information you need.

Offline Mikes@Micro

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 853
  • Total likes: 287
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: US
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #425 on: June 15, 2020, 09:09:03 PM »
Yes, but that's not the purpose of contact tracing.  It's not intended for political polling, or academic research.  It's a public health issue, part of the plan for preventing a second wave of infection. That important goal should not be jeopardized by our curiosity about the more narrow question of the role of protests.

This is a well-known issue - at least well known to social workers, psychologists, public health workers (any here on DDF?) who have had experience in working with people with syphillis or HIV or mental health issues or drug abuse, or victims of spousal abuse or child abuse.  Asking the direct question is often not an effective way to get the information you need.
Would knowing if an spread was caused by riots help with reopening plans? Theoretically you could say that bc of moving into phase 1 reopening didn't cause an uptick and anything was bc of riots not opening stores etc so we can safely move onto phase 2....
Quote or engagement  equals full throated endorsement and vote!
H/t PinchosL

Offline yelped

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Mar 2015
  • Posts: 5448
  • Total likes: 557
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #426 on: June 15, 2020, 09:13:41 PM »
Lol, do you have to ask?
NYC is the obvious candidate, but so are LA, Portland, Seattle, and San Francisco.

Offline Afrages6

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Silver Elite
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2017
  • Posts: 640
  • Total likes: 171
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #427 on: June 15, 2020, 09:40:22 PM »
Gozalim: City Hall confirmed that contact tracing workers hired by the city to trace the interactions of people infected with Covid-19, have been instructed not to ask anyone whoís tested positive for COVID-19 whether they recently attended a demonstration.
Good question!  Politicians, health professionals, and all of us would really like to know whether covid was spread by the protests, so the reason they're not asking is not because they don't want to know.

It's because People are not Google.  You don't just submit a question and automatically get a correct answer, especially when the question is about behavior that people might want to keep private.  And asking personal questions might make them leery about answering the questions you really need an answer to, which is known contacts to whom they may have transmitted covid.  Contact tracers' goal is to prevent future transmissions, not to research events in the past.   

Source and longer version:
https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave
Seriously. You have a lot of smart things to say, but isnít there a real public health interest in seeing if large outdoor gatherings can spread the virus or not?

So you really believe that people will have their feelings hurt if they are asked if they attended a protest?

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 8657
  • Total likes: 1921
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #428 on: June 15, 2020, 09:42:07 PM »
So you really believe that people will have their feelings hurt if they are asked if they attended a protest?
More like you won't get an answer.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline biobook

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite
  • ****
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 251
  • Total likes: 260
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #429 on: June 15, 2020, 09:43:54 PM »
Would knowing if an spread was caused by riots help with reopening plans? Theoretically you could say that bc of moving into phase 1 reopening didn't cause an uptick and anything was bc of riots not opening stores etc so we can safely move onto phase 2....
Sorry, I'm not sure I got this.  I think you're asking:

The riots occurred during phase 1, when stores were opened.  If there's an uptick in covid cases now, wouldn't we want to know whether the uptick was caused by the store openings or by the riots?  If it was caused by the store openings, we might want to close the stores again, but if it was caused by the riots, we could leave stores open and safely move into phase 2.

Yes, you have a point there. (If this was, in fact, your point.)  But when two things happen at the same time (store opening and riots), it is difficult to figure out which led to the result.  You could do this research, but it would probably take longer to get an answer than you'd want to wait, before moving to phase 2. 

Also, even if you wanted to figure this out, it wouldn't be comfortable to ask questions about this in the same interview in which you're doing the contact tracing.  This would be like a boy goes for a farher and the questions from the rebbe alternate with questions from the rebbetzin about shidduchim.  Different investigations need a different kind of interview.

Offline Afrages6

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Silver Elite
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2017
  • Posts: 640
  • Total likes: 171
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #430 on: June 15, 2020, 09:44:13 PM »
More like you won't get an answer.
So therefore it hurts to ask?

Do you really think that makes any sense. You donít have to defend every liberal out there. Itís really clear that de blasio is petrified of a spike being ascribed to the protests and therefore is doing this. He will probably blame the Jews again if there happens to be a spike.

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 8657
  • Total likes: 1921
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #431 on: June 15, 2020, 09:48:06 PM »
So therefore it hurts to ask?

Do you really think that makes any sense. You donít have to defend every liberal out there.
Since when stating that most likely they won't answer is defending a liberal?   ::)
I have no issue with them asking.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Afrages6

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Silver Elite
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2017
  • Posts: 640
  • Total likes: 171
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #432 on: June 15, 2020, 09:49:54 PM »
Since when stating that most likely they won't answer is defending a liberal?   ::)
I have no issue with them asking.
So I asked why does it hurt to ask and you answered that they most likely wonít get an answer.

Offline etech0

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 11334
  • Total likes: 1363
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
    • View Profile
  • Location: not lakewood
  • Programs: DDF
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #433 on: June 15, 2020, 09:50:28 PM »
Is anyone actually talking to these contact tracers vs just hanging up?
Workflowy. You won't know what you're missing until you try it.

Offline biobook

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite
  • ****
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 251
  • Total likes: 260
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #434 on: June 15, 2020, 09:56:01 PM »
Seriously. You have a lot of smart things to say, but isnít there a real public health interest in seeing if large outdoor gatherings can spread the virus or not?

So you really believe that people will have their feelings hurt if they are asked if they attended a protest?

A. It's not a matter of my belief, but the belief of decades of public health researchers who have interviewed people about issues like this.

B. It's not a matter of having their feelings hurt, but that people will give honest responses only if they trust the interrogator, and asking about protests may interfere with that trust.

C. Yes, it would be interesting to see if large outdoor gatherings can spread the virus, but the riots and protests are not necessarily helpful in answering that question.  Unlike most gatherings, the protesters often didn't know each other or record each others' names, so impossible to know who was near whom. 

D. Incorporating research on viral spread in gatherings into the contact tracing research required for public health would just be a poor research technique.  If both are to be done, they should be in separate studies.