Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 100182 times)

Offline etech0

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 12863
  • Total likes: 3321
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
    • View Profile
  • Location: not lakewood
  • Programs: DDF
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #440 on: June 15, 2020, 10:18:24 PM »
Yes.  There is not yet evidence that protests are spreading the virus like crazy.
How will we find out if that is the case?
Workflowy. You won't know what you're missing until you try it.

Offline biobook

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 1393
  • Total likes: 1692
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #441 on: June 15, 2020, 10:19:46 PM »
how about public announcement: if you were at X protest on Y day at Z time, get yourself tested
This is the kind of announcement that was done in Israel from the beginning, and may have contributed to the smaller spread there.

Here, Cuomo and DeBlasio have done something similar, though vaguer:  If you were at the protests at all, get yourself tested. 

Offline Mikes@Micro

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 994
  • Total likes: 328
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: US
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #442 on: June 15, 2020, 10:23:12 PM »
Right.  It hurts to ask during the interview on contact tracing.  Because you won't get a useful answer about the protests, and it will hurt your chances for effective contact tracing.
Yes.  There is not yet evidence that protests are spreading the virus like crazy.
Do any of these contact tracing initiatives in the USA work? Seems like the tracers are living on a cloud...

Here, Cuomo and DeBlasio have done something similar, though vaguer:  If you were at the protests at all, get yourself tested. 
DeBlasio announced today that although he was at protests and is feeling sick he wont test
Quote or engagement  equals full throated endorsement and vote!
H/t PinchosL

Offline biobook

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 1393
  • Total likes: 1692
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #443 on: June 15, 2020, 10:23:44 PM »
How will we find out if that is the case?
I would guess that we'd see a large uptick in cases, within two weeks of the protests.

But let me ask you a related question:

How could we find out whether large outdoor weddings contribute significantly to spread of the virus?

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15792
  • Total likes: 7320
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #444 on: June 15, 2020, 10:25:15 PM »
How could we find out whether large outdoor weddings contribute significantly to spread of the virus?
...or how about large indoor rallies?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline biobook

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 1393
  • Total likes: 1692
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #445 on: June 15, 2020, 10:25:46 PM »
Do any of these contact tracing initiatives in the USA work? Seems like the tracers are living on a cloud...

On what do you base your assertion?  Why do you suppose they wouldn't work?

Offline gozalim

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Oct 2008
  • Posts: 4255
  • Total likes: 812
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #446 on: June 15, 2020, 10:28:09 PM »
Here, Cuomo and DeBlasio have done something similar, though vaguer:  If you were at the protests at all, get yourself tested. 
Link?

Offline etech0

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 12863
  • Total likes: 3321
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
    • View Profile
  • Location: not lakewood
  • Programs: DDF
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #447 on: June 15, 2020, 10:28:55 PM »
I would guess that we'd see a large uptick in cases, within two weeks of the protests.

But let me ask you a related question:

How could we find out whether large outdoor weddings contribute significantly to spread of the virus?
Another good question. If contact tracers or other people are trying to determine the answers to these questions they will need to compare data between who was at these events and who subsequently contracted the virus.
Workflowy. You won't know what you're missing until you try it.

Offline Mikes@Micro

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 994
  • Total likes: 328
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: US
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #448 on: June 15, 2020, 10:29:46 PM »
On what do you base your assertion?  Why do you suppose they wouldn't work?
Is anyone actually talking to these contact tracers vs just hanging up?
It doesnt seem like there is any apparatus which can contact trace enough cases to be effective and bc no way to force an actual quarantine.... there are no ' quarantine hotels' around here
Quote or engagement  equals full throated endorsement and vote!
H/t PinchosL

Offline biobook

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 1393
  • Total likes: 1692
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #449 on: June 15, 2020, 10:30:47 PM »
...or how about large indoor rallies?
Probably a larger sample size, for outdoor weddings than indoor rallies

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15792
  • Total likes: 7320
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #450 on: June 15, 2020, 10:31:04 PM »
Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline biobook

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 1393
  • Total likes: 1692
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #451 on: June 15, 2020, 10:31:52 PM »
Link?

https://time.com/5849797/protests-coronavirus-test/

With New York City poised to reopen after a more than two-month coronavirus shutdown, officials on Sunday lifted a curfew that was in place amid protests of police brutality and racial injustice. But they also urged that demonstrators be tested for COVID-19.

“Get a test. Get a test,” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told people who have been participating in rallies and marches in memory of George Floyd.

He said the state would open 15 testing sites dedicated to protesters so they can get results quickly.

“I would act as if you were exposed, and I would tell people you are interacting with, assume I am positive for the virus,” Cuomo added.

Offline Mikes@Micro

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 994
  • Total likes: 328
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: US
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #452 on: June 15, 2020, 10:32:40 PM »



C. Yes, it would be interesting to see if large outdoor gatherings can spread the virus, but the riots and protests are not necessarily helpful in answering that question.  Unlike most gatherings, the protesters often didn't know each other or record each others' names, so impossible to know who was near whom. 


This is the exact point of all those Apple and Google initiatives that have been capturing headlines for months. Ha!
Israel did a good job thanks to cell phone tracking, rav kavya tracking, credit card tracking and the fact that israelis are scared of their govt.
Quote or engagement  equals full throated endorsement and vote!
H/t PinchosL

Offline Mikes@Micro

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Apr 2020
  • Posts: 994
  • Total likes: 328
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: US
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #453 on: June 15, 2020, 10:34:26 PM »
Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?
The only albeit minute possibility is if being outdoors with fresh air and a breeze really helps more then we think.
Quote or engagement  equals full throated endorsement and vote!
H/t PinchosL

Offline etech0

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 12863
  • Total likes: 3321
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
    • View Profile
  • Location: not lakewood
  • Programs: DDF
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #454 on: June 15, 2020, 10:35:34 PM »
The only albeit minute possibility is if being outdoors with fresh air and a breeze really helps more then we think.
Or if we really do have herd immunity after all
Workflowy. You won't know what you're missing until you try it.

Offline Afrages6

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Apr 2017
  • Posts: 917
  • Total likes: 402
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #455 on: June 15, 2020, 10:42:50 PM »
Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?
Uptick? Yes. Huge spike? Unlikely. Remember that for people to spread the virus they have to actually have the virus themselves currently. And the infection rate in NY is the lowest in the country right now.

Other places where the virus is still is in its initial spread and are having large gatherings are biological Bombs waiting to happen.

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15792
  • Total likes: 7320
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #456 on: June 15, 2020, 10:45:32 PM »
Uptick? Yes. Huge spike? Unlikely. Remember that for people to spread the virus they have to actually have the virus themselves currently. And the infection rate in NY is the lowest in the country right now.
An outrageous number would be 50% of the population has been infected in NY. How many millions does that leave?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline Afrages6

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Apr 2017
  • Posts: 917
  • Total likes: 402
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #457 on: June 15, 2020, 10:48:24 PM »
An outrageous number would be 50% of the population has been infected in NY. How many millions does that leave?
Currently the amount of people infected in NY is a very low number for a state with 19 million people. So the odds of lots of people at protests being positive and spreading the virus is not so likely. Where did I say herd immunity?

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15792
  • Total likes: 7320
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #458 on: June 15, 2020, 10:58:37 PM »
Currently the amount of people infected in NY is a very low number for a state with 19 million people. So the odds of lots of people at protests being positive and spreading the virus is not so likely. Where did I say herd immunity?
You didn't say herd immunity and I never said you did. My point is there are millions that have yet to be infected. Large gatherings IMHO will be feeding ground for them.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline Afrages6

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Apr 2017
  • Posts: 917
  • Total likes: 402
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #459 on: June 15, 2020, 11:01:21 PM »
You didn't say herd immunity and I never said you did. My point is there are millions that have yet to be infected. Large gatherings IMHO will be feeding ground for them.
And my point is that people have to have the virus to infect other people. And in NY it’s not likely at this point that someone has the virus and doesn’t know that they do.