Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 100092 times)

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #480 on: June 16, 2020, 10:20:32 AM »
In my hospital today there were 6 OR cases cancelled due to asymptomatic patients Testing positive for COVID on random pre-op testing... that is not a good sign.
What location?
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Offline etech0

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #481 on: June 16, 2020, 10:22:25 AM »
In my hospital today there were 6 OR cases cancelled due to asymptomatic patients Testing positive for COVID on random pre-op testing... that is not a good sign.
Were they symptomatic in the past?
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Offline Kobe Bryant

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #482 on: June 16, 2020, 11:30:17 AM »
In my hospital today there were 6 OR cases cancelled due to asymptomatic patients Testing positive for COVID on random pre-op testing... that is not a good sign.
"That is not a good sign." of what?


Offline YankyDoodle

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #483 on: June 16, 2020, 11:31:58 AM »
What location?
Miami
Were they symptomatic in the past?
To the best of my knowledge, no.
"That is not a good sign." of what?

Not a good sign of the title of this thread

Offline Kobe Bryant

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Offline Ergel

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #485 on: June 16, 2020, 01:49:39 PM »
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/second-wave-covid-19-u-s-or-are-we-still-n1231087
The whole premise of the article is inaccurate. We aren't in a second wave because none of the locations that got hit hard during the first wave are having a recurrence, nothing to do with anything else.
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #486 on: June 16, 2020, 03:53:18 PM »
My understanding of the NY/NJ trajectory is that the people who didn't get it in March/April were being particularly careful and still are.

20% already had it, 30-40% probably aren't susceptible (based on data from confined ships), from the reaming 40% only a very small portion are at risk of severe symptoms, and these people are probably extremely careful. The portion of the population that isn't capable or interested in avoiding it already got it.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline CountValentine

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Online avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #488 on: June 16, 2020, 10:27:11 PM »
And my point is that people have to have the virus to infect other people. And in NY it’s not likely at this point that someone has the virus and doesn’t know that they do.
There can definitely be asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people. The evidence points to the probability of super spreaders, 1 infected person can spread it to 1,000 people at a protest.

An outrageous number would be 50% of the population has been infected in NY. How many millions does that leave?
Places like The Bronx have a higher percentage than the citywide average of 20%+ with antibodies.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline yaakov35

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #489 on: June 16, 2020, 10:39:26 PM »
My understanding of the NY/NJ trajectory is that the people who didn't get it in March/April were being particularly careful and still are.

20% already had it, 30-40% probably aren't susceptible (based on data from confined ships), from the reaming 40% only a very small portion are at risk of severe symptoms, and these people are probably extremely careful. The portion of the population that isn't capable or interested in avoiding it already got it.
Yep, was on a call today with few prominent rabbonim and DRs locally and they were all under the impression that corona is done in new york. Issue for yeshivas and the like is guys from out of town and what effects that will have.

Offline Ergel

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #490 on: June 17, 2020, 07:29:57 AM »
There can definitely be asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people. The evidence points to the probability of super spreaders, 1 infected person can spread it to 1,000 people at a protest.
Outdoors? That seems highly unlikely
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #491 on: June 17, 2020, 11:58:38 AM »
Places like The Bronx have a higher percentage than the citywide average of 20%+ with antibodies.
So how many does that leave?
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #492 on: June 17, 2020, 12:20:41 PM »
So how many does that leave?
We don't know, but it will certainly spread at a significantly slower pace because of the number of people who are no longer susceptible.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #493 on: June 17, 2020, 12:23:24 PM »
We don't know, but it will certainly spread at a significantly slower pace because of the number of people who are no longer susceptible.
Will that be offset by those who no longer practice SD?
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #494 on: June 17, 2020, 12:28:47 PM »
Will that be offset by those who no longer practice SD?
There was no social distancing when the first wave hit, there is much more social distancing now. Especially among the the vulnerable population (elderly/high risk who didn't already get the virus).
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #495 on: June 17, 2020, 12:30:43 PM »
There was no social distancing when the first wave hit, there is much more social distancing now. Especially among the the vulnerable population (elderly/high risk who didn't already get the virus).
Hopefully it will be nowhere as bad as the first wave. That has been completely devastating. Worse than I thought.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #496 on: June 17, 2020, 12:32:40 PM »
Hopefully it will be nowhere as bad as the first wave. That has been completely devastating. Worse than I thought.
Worse than most people thought, but better than most models predicted.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #497 on: June 17, 2020, 12:35:47 PM »
Worse than most people thought, but better than most models predicted.
Models change all the time. The way it is going now the models were right or on the low side unless you are using the ones that said 2mm if we did nothing.

When you look at the physical and economic damage it is way worse than predicted.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #498 on: June 17, 2020, 01:49:21 PM »
Models change all the time. The way it is going now the models were right or on the low side unless you are using the ones that said 2mm if we did nothing.

When you look at the physical and economic damage it is way worse than predicted.
The models being used by the authorities to make the decisions that caused this economic impact were way off.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #499 on: June 17, 2020, 02:38:33 PM »
There was no social distancing when the first wave hit, there is much more social distancing now. Especially among the the vulnerable population (elderly/high risk who didn't already get the virus).
+1

There’s no way we’re in a worse place than we were pre-COVID as far as SD. Additionally, there are an awful lot of people around with antibodies.
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