Is there a second wave?

[S209]

The models being used by the authorities to make the decisions that caused this economic impact were way off.

I’ve asked this in the past but not been answered, what is your source for this? Trump announced that he’s relying on a model that predicted between 100,000-240,000 deaths through August with social distancing measures in place when formulating the US government response. Looks like he’s going to end up just about right (though only time will truly tell). Where have you seen otherwise?

ETA: I found this from April, which also claims many experts believe daily deaths will drop to under 10 by early June with distancing measures in place. Well, measures aren’t in place any longer and now there are still about 1,000 a day.

[avromie7]

I’ve asked this in the past but not been answered, what is your source for this? Trump announced that he’s relying on a model that predicted between 100,000-240,000 deaths through August with social distancing measures in place when formulating the US government response. Looks like he’s going to end up just about right (though only time will truly tell). Where have you seen otherwise?

Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.

[Dan]

Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.

That was a negotiating tactic.

[S209]

Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.

What economic impact did that have? Was there policy implemented because he requested more ventilators? What model was he using?

[avromie7]

That was a negotiating tactic.

As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.

[avromie7]

What economic impact did that have? Was there policy implemented because he requested more ventilators? What model was he using?

As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.

[Lurker]

As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.

Why are we conflating the politics with the science again?

[avromie7]

Why are we conflating the politics with the science again?

Please elaborate.

[Lurker]

Please elaborate.

He asked about models, and how they weren't accurate, and we somehow start talking about spin and fear mongering  and power grabbing. No one disputes the abuse of power. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of models.

[avromie7]

He asked about models, and how they weren't accurate, and we somehow start talking about spin and fear mongering  and power grabbing. No one disputes the abuse of power. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of models.

Of course it does, the inaccurate models were used by politicians and the media for fear mongering and power grabbing.

[Lurker]

Of course it does, the inaccurate models were used by politicians and the media for fear mongering and power grabbing.

Great, he asked which models and your response was that Cuomo needed 40k vents. When he asked which model Cuomo used, your answer was

As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.

[avromie7]

Great, he asked which models and your response was that Cuomo needed 40k vents. When he asked which model Cuomo used, your answer was

He asked 3 questions, I answered 2 of them but you chose to assume I was incoherently answering the third.

[Lurker]

He asked 3 questions, I answered 2 of them but you chose to assume I was incoherently answering the third.

You're right. I'm sorry.

Now back to original question: which models did we use that were completely off base?

[avromie7]

You're right. I'm sorry.

Now back to original question: which models did we use that were completely off base?

Whichever one Cuomo based his claim of needing 40k ventilators on. Which model it was and how many models said otherwise doesn't matter, the fact is this is what was used to make the decisions that lead to the economic devastation.

[Lurker]

Whichever one Cuomo based his claim of needing 40k ventilators on. Which model it was and how many models said otherwise doesn't matter, the fact is this is what was used to make the decisions that lead to the economic devastation.

The error there wasn't in the numbers, it was in treatment method. At that time, we were under the impression that most people who got sick would need to be intubated. That has proved to be false. Goes under reasons to keep people from getting sick. The longer you keep them from getting infected, the better the treatment will be when they eventually do need it.

[CountValentine]

The models being used by the authorities to make the decisions that caused this economic impact were way off.

Source?

[avromie7]

The error there wasn't in the numbers, it was in treatment method. At that time, we were under the impression that most people who got sick would need to be intubated. That has proved to be false. Goes under reasons to keep people from getting sick. The longer you keep them from getting infected, the better the treatment will be when they eventually do need it.

The peak number of hospitalizations NYS was 18k, even if ventilators were the correct treatment it was still way off. Same with number of hospital beds which IIRC he said they would need like 180k beds.

[avromie7]

Source?

Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.

The peak number of hospitalizations NYS was 18k, even if ventilators were the correct treatment it was still way off. Same with number of hospital beds which IIRC he said they would need like 180k beds.

[CountValentine]

That's the personal loss not economic. Since you are on personal loss those numbers (deaths) look pretty accurate to me.

[avromie7]

That's the personal loss not economic. Since you are on personal loss those numbers (deaths) look pretty accurate to me.

I didn't realize you were questioning the economic impact. I thought it was quite obvious, forcing businesses to close and people to stay home for so long has a huge economic impact.