Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 27476 times)

Offline Luvisrael

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #600 on: July 02, 2020, 12:03:24 AM »
Its inevitable  that someone will bring back invisible souvenirs from a place with significant cases.I cancelled my LA trip because of this.

Offline Moshe123

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #601 on: July 02, 2020, 12:38:25 AM »
Herd immunity is about that it would be very difficult to spread locally in a more than localized manner.
Obviously, a person with no antibodies traveling to Florida is just like any Floridian. Why would he be different. Nothing here is contradictory to what most people are saying.

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #602 on: July 02, 2020, 12:30:18 PM »
Herd immunity is about that it would be very difficult to spread locally in a more than localized manner.
Obviously, a person with no antibodies traveling to Florida is just like any Floridian. Why would he be different. Nothing here is contradictory to what most people are saying.
Exactly
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #603 on: July 02, 2020, 01:45:28 PM »
Herd immunity is about that it would be very difficult to spread locally in a more than localized manner.
Obviously, a person with no antibodies traveling to Florida is just like any Floridian. Why would he be different. Nothing here is contradictory to what most people are saying.

Is there more herd immunity in Brooklyn than Lakewood? I know many people from Brooklyn whove been in Florida over the past few weeks.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #604 on: July 02, 2020, 01:49:35 PM »
I'd be curious to see a study on herd immunity where the herd with over x% immunity interacts with many other herds with no immunity.
When you find yourself agreeing with me more often than not, it's time for a cheshbon hanefesh.

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #605 on: July 02, 2020, 02:27:56 PM »
Is there more herd immunity in Brooklyn than Lakewood? I know many people from Brooklyn whove been in Florida over the past few weeks.
Ah... so that's how it came here?

Offline Essen est zich

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #606 on: July 02, 2020, 02:29:44 PM »

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #607 on: July 02, 2020, 02:29:55 PM »
I'd be curious to see a study on herd immunity where the herd with over x% immunity interacts with many other herds with no immunity.
That would pretty much be the definition of "no herd immunity", no?

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #608 on: July 02, 2020, 02:34:49 PM »
That would pretty much be the definition of "no herd immunity", no?

I'm not talking about a full integration and dilution of the herd, just a series of interactions with other herds. I want to know at what point is your herd just part of a larger herd.
When you find yourself agreeing with me more often than not, it's time for a cheshbon hanefesh.

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #609 on: July 02, 2020, 02:48:38 PM »
I'm not talking about a full integration and dilution of the herd, just a series of interactions with other herds. I want to know at what point is your herd just part of a larger herd.
If we use this definition: Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely.

I think you're asking How do we define community? 
Does it mean all those who live and eat and work mostly with each other?  (eg, Jewish CH)
Or do we need to add to that those who join that physical space for shorter periods of working or eating, for example? (eg, cashier in CH grocery store who lives elsewhere, visitors who come just to shop)
If many individuals leave the community during the day for work, for example, can we still refer to the original community as having herd immunity, or does community need to be defined as the original community, plus all those within physical proximity of places of work and public transportation?  (eg, CH plus the rest of NYC)

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #610 on: July 02, 2020, 03:03:17 PM »
If we use this definition: Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely.

I think you're asking How do we define community? 
Does it mean all those who live and eat and work mostly with each other?  (eg, Jewish CH)
Or do we need to add to that those who join that physical space for shorter periods of working or eating, for example? (eg, cashier in CH grocery store who lives elsewhere, visitors who come just to shop)
If many individuals leave the community during the day for work, for example, can we still refer to the original community as having herd immunity, or does community need to be defined as the original community, plus all those within physical proximity of places of work and public transportation?  (eg, CH plus the rest of NYC)
We don't say there is no herd immunity in the US for the measles because you have people coming from countries in Africa where the measles is still common. The same would apply on a smaller scale to a community like CH, while there are interactions outside the "herd", as long as the interactions aren't enough to dilute the herd you have a situation where a big outbreak is impossible.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #611 on: July 02, 2020, 03:23:10 PM »
I think you're asking How do we define community? 
We don't say there is no herd immunity in the US for the measles because you have people coming from countries in Africa where the measles is still common. The same would apply on a smaller scale to a community like CH, while there are interactions outside the "herd", as long as the interactions aren't enough to dilute the herd you have a situation where a big outbreak is impossible.

The question is, at what point does the community become absorbed into a greater community? Every herd will have outside interactions without nullifying its status as a herd. Is there a point where a community interacts with outsiders so much that either they lose the benefits of the perceived immunities or they just lose their status as a community to begin with?
When you find yourself agreeing with me more often than not, it's time for a cheshbon hanefesh.

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #612 on: July 02, 2020, 03:42:55 PM »
When I think of "herd immunity", I envision Farmer Brown's herd of sheep within an enclosed fence, totally separated from any other sheep.

But I'm totally ignorant about this, so won't say any more.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #613 on: July 02, 2020, 03:49:07 PM »
When I think of "herd immunity", I envision Farmer Brown's herd of sheep within an enclosed fence, totally separated from any other sheep.

But I'm totally ignorant about this, so won't say any more.
That wouldn't require any immunity, that stops anything from getting in in the first place. Herd immunity is enough immunity that even if someone does catch the virus an outbreak is impossible because the chain is statistically guaranteed to break.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #614 on: July 02, 2020, 04:18:27 PM »
Keep an eye on NY's numbers over the next 10 days. I believe we've just passed the lowest point we'll see for infections for a very long time. I don't think the numbers will get really bad anytime soon, but something to keep an eye on as the weather gets hotter and moves people back indoors.
When you find yourself agreeing with me more often than not, it's time for a cheshbon hanefesh.