Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 22262 times)

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #615 on: July 02, 2020, 04:20:56 PM »
That wouldn't require any immunity, that stops anything from getting in in the first place. Herd immunity is enough immunity that even if someone does catch the virus an outbreak is impossible because the chain is statistically guaranteed to break.
My simplistic and possibly incorrect understanding:

Farmer Brown has 10 sheep - 7 (X) were infected and recovered, 3 (O) still susceptible: 
XXOXXXOXXO

If an Infected sheep (I) is introduced to the herd, it is most likely to bump into an X, rather than O. 
XXOXIXXOXXO
The Xs are protected directly by antibody immunity, so won't spread the disease. The Os are protected indirectly, due to herd immunity.

Farmer Green has a separate herd of 10 healthy sheep, all susceptible to disease.  They're enclosed in a fence, but there is no herd immunity, because the introduction of a single infected sheep could get them all sick.

Now Farmer Green sells his entire herd to Farmer Brown.  The new herd has 7 infected + 13 susceptible
OOXXOXOOOXOXOOXXOOOO

If an Infected sheep is introduced, it is most likely to bump into an O.
OOXXOXOIOOXOXOOXXOOOO
We would say there is no herd immunity.  The Xs are still protected due to their own antibodies, but the 3 Os that had immunity due to being in the herd have now lost that due to the introduction of healthy, uninfected individuals. One infected individual can get all the Os sick. It wouldn't matter if Farmer Brown's sheep followed a different religion from Farmer Green's.

So the question I think Lurker was asking was What happens if Farmer Brown and Farmer Green keep their herds separate, but all the sheep spend an hour a day foraging in the same field.  Is this equivalent to the case where the two herds are combined?  How much time do they need to spend together to be considered a single herd, when it comes to herd immunity?

Online Euclid

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #616 on: July 02, 2020, 04:39:09 PM »
Keep an eye on NY's numbers over the next 10 days. I believe we've just passed the lowest point we'll see for infections for a very long time. I don't think the numbers will get really bad anytime soon, but something to keep an eye on as the weather gets hotter and moves people back indoors.
Are you basing this off of what's happening in Florida?

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #617 on: July 02, 2020, 04:43:18 PM »
My simplistic and possibly incorrect understanding:

Farmer Brown has 10 sheep - 7 (X) were infected and recovered, 3 (O) still susceptible: 
XXOXXXOXXO

If an Infected sheep (I) is introduced to the herd, it is most likely to bump into an X, rather than O. 
XXOXIXXOXXO
The Xs are protected directly by antibody immunity, so won't spread the disease. The Os are protected indirectly, due to herd immunity.

Farmer Green has a separate herd of 10 healthy sheep, all susceptible to disease.  They're enclosed in a fence, but there is no herd immunity, because the introduction of a single infected sheep could get them all sick.

Now Farmer Green sells his entire herd to Farmer Brown.  The new herd has 7 infected + 13 susceptible
OOXXOXOOOXOXOOXXOOOO

If an Infected sheep is introduced, it is most likely to bump into an O.
OOXXOXOIOOXOXOOXXOOOO
We would say there is no herd immunity.  The Xs are still protected due to their own antibodies, but the 3 Os that had immunity due to being in the herd have now lost that due to the introduction of healthy, uninfected individuals. One infected individual can get all the Os sick. It wouldn't matter if Farmer Brown's sheep followed a different religion from Farmer Green's.

So the question I think Lurker was asking was What happens if Farmer Brown and Farmer Green keep their herds separate, but all the sheep spend an hour a day foraging in the same field.  Is this equivalent to the case where the two herds are combined?  How much time do they need to spend together to be considered a single herd, when it comes to herd immunity?
I'll tweak your example where each (X) or (O) represents 100 sheep instead of 1, we're also working with a simplified assumption where each sheep only comes in contact with 1 other sheep. When you have 7(X) and 3(O) there is a decently high possibility (30%) that the infected sheep will come in contact with 1 of the (O)'s, but at some point the next infected sheep will only come in contact with the (X)'s breaking the chain of infections thereby stopping the outbreak. Back to our community, as long as you don't have everyone mingling with other communities even if some people get it from outside the community there is a limit to how much it can spread.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #618 on: July 02, 2020, 04:53:21 PM »
I'll tweak your example where each (X) or (O) represents 100 sheep instead of 1, we're also working with a simplified assumption where each sheep only comes in contact with 1 other sheep. When you have 7(X) and 3(O) there is a decently high possibility (30%) that the infected sheep will come in contact with 1 of the (O)'s, but at some point the next infected sheep will only come in contact with the (X)'s breaking the chain of infections thereby stopping the outbreak.
Yes, of course, agreed.
Quote
Back to our community, as long as you don't have everyone mingling with other communities even if some people get it from outside the community there is a limit to how much it can spread.
Back to a definition of our community.  How do you define this?  Is your community your neighborhood in Lakewood?  All of Jewish Lakewood?  All of Jewish and non-Jewish Lakewood?  Does it include those who commute to Lakewood every day for a job?

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #619 on: July 02, 2020, 05:05:26 PM »
Back to a definition of our community.  How do you define this?  Is your community your neighborhood in Lakewood?  All of Jewish Lakewood?  All of Jewish and non-Jewish Lakewood?  Does it include those who commute to Lakewood every day for a job?
That's a good question and it's hard to pinpoint exactly where to draw the lines. I would assume we should include Jewish people in (and around) Lakewood, the same would go for Williamsburg, BP, and CH.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #620 on: July 02, 2020, 05:18:05 PM »
That's a good question and it's hard to pinpoint exactly where to draw the lines. I would assume we should include Jewish people in (and around) Lakewood, the same would go for Williamsburg, BP, and CH.
That's what I thought you were thinking, but I think it's wrong.  I think the lines should be drawn around all the people who are in physical proximity, so if your neighbor's mother-in-law lives with them, and has a non-Jewish health care aide who comes every day, and your other neighbor works every day in an office with a non-Jewish coworker, and you mix with those neighbors in shul and shopping, then the community of people who can be potentially infected and transmit the disease would have to include all those people, Jews and non-Jews. 

But I'm not at all sure about this, so I'm going to go read about herd immunity and see if I learn anything worthwhile.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #621 on: July 02, 2020, 05:55:04 PM »
Are you basing this off of what's happening in Florida?

Only as a part of a much bigger picture. Hate 'em or hate 'em, NY's restrictions effectively lowered the number of active infections to a point where spread became minimal. Not only did it keep hotspots from sprouting (bars, restaurants, churches, etc.), but it also kept people out of the city. People who live there left to places where they either felt safer or less restricted, and people who would normally visit stayed away either for safety or because there was nothing to do (no shows or games, nowhere to eat, hang out, etc.).

At a certain point, however, the tide does begin to turn. Restrictions in NY are easing, so many people who left town are returning. As the numbers rise around the rest of the country, their restrictions get tighter, and people start traveling to less restrictive locales they deem to be safer, such as a place which looks to be passed it's outbreak. In this regard, we're seeing a reverse of what happened in Florida during NY's peak. A quick look at TSA's checkpoint numbers in conjunction with the surge of new positive cases will tell you that greater spread is coming. TSA logged an average of around 575k passengers in the last 14 days. The 14 days before, they averaged about 440k, and the 14 days before that they averaged just over 300K daily travelers. That's an increase of almost 90% from a month ago. When infections get reintroduced into the NY metro area, and they coincide with the reopening of higher risk public spaces, the numbers are guaranteed to go up. This is being played out on a smaller scale in Lakewood, and I would be shocked not to hear of more such cases in other NY/NJ communities over the next couple of weeks.

Additionally, a theory bandied about here which I subscribe to is the weather factor. As long as the weather in nice and people can be outdoors, I think spread is somewhat limited. However, with hotter and more humid conditions, people will look to move to indoor air conditioned spaces. Combine that with a declining amount of people taking precautions, either because of a false sense of security from low numbers over the last month, or because of quarantine fatigue, and you're creating optimal conditions for a spike in spread. Of note, today NY recorded their highest new positive count since 6/2. I don't think that's an anomaly; I think it's the start of a new upward trend.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #622 on: July 02, 2020, 07:04:14 PM »
That's what I thought you were thinking, but I think it's wrong.  I think the lines should be drawn around all the people who are in physical proximity, so if your neighbor's mother-in-law lives with them, and has a non-Jewish health care aide who comes every day, and your other neighbor works every day in an office with a non-Jewish coworker, and you mix with those neighbors in shul and shopping, then the community of people who can be potentially infected and transmit the disease would have to include all those people, Jews and non-Jews. 

But I'm not at all sure about this, so I'm going to go read about herd immunity and see if I learn anything worthwhile.
I would consider most of those to be herd interactions with people outside the herd.
Of note, today NY recorded their highest new positive count since 6/2. I don't think that's an anomaly; I think it's the start of a new upward trend.
The question is, is the increase due to community spread or new cases coming back from Florida.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #623 on: July 02, 2020, 07:38:50 PM »
The nature is that our herd immunity is effective, even if the surrounding area isn't as immune.
In places where the virus tends to spread, we're mostly with the same type of people of the herd. Shul, simchos, tons of workplaces, restaurants etc.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #624 on: July 02, 2020, 08:08:59 PM »
The question is, is the increase due to community spread or new cases coming back from Florida.

Does it matter? They could originate in FL, CA, TX, AZ, or NJ. Once you have infected people walking around within the community, the people they infect is the start of community spread. If there are more infected people on the streets of NY right now than there were 2 weeks ago, which I believe there are, then a rise in infections is very likely coming. I say watch the next 10 days because it will give a good idea of how the July 4th weekend will impact the spread, similar to what we saw nationwide after Memorial Day weekend.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #625 on: July 02, 2020, 08:12:30 PM »
I would consider most of those to be herd interactions with people outside the herd.

My question is, how many of those interactions before the herd is no longer a herd, but part of a greater community? If I stop at the same Wawa 10 miles from my house every day, and I interact with the cashier more than anyone on my block, who's my herd?
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Offline Kobe bryent

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #626 on: July 02, 2020, 10:11:58 PM »
similar to what we saw nationwide after Memorial Day weekend.
When mass protests of thousands of people took to the streets.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #627 on: July 02, 2020, 10:28:39 PM »
When mass protests of thousands of people took to the streets.

Political rhetoric aside, most spread now is being traced back to bars, restaurants, gyms, and other indoor gatherings.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #628 on: July 02, 2020, 10:57:01 PM »
When mass protests of thousands of people took to the streets.
Why didn't NYC or Chicago have massive spikes since they had larger protests? Try using common sense.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #629 on: July 02, 2020, 11:28:05 PM »
BREAKING: I have a reliable report that there seems to be a COVID resurgence beginning in Lakewood. Five frum community members tested positive yesterday, and 5 new cases are pending today. A FRUM MEMBER OF THE COMMUNITY IS NOW IN THE ICU. Another frum man, from Florida, worked in a large Lakewood day camp and had close contact with many people, and he just tested positive.

Guys, it's crazy how we are throwing caution to the wind. This seems to be a major issue. Please spread the word to anyone you know, so that they can take all needed precautions.
There are currently 8 positives with 2 pending. The person in the ICU has tested negative for Covid. As per Dr. Friedman of CHEMED (who has been collating the cases in Lakewood.)