Is there a second wave?

[Lurker]

Was just responding to

I understand. I'm trying to understand what your parameters are for "spiraling" into a "massive" second wave. When do you think Lakewood residents should start to get concerned?

[Yard sale]

I understand. I'm trying to understand what your parameters are for "spiraling" into a "massive" second wave. When do you think Lakewood residents should start to get concerned?

I don’t know that there is a clear number but to me evidence of community spread, particularly secondary community spread, meaning locally contacted virus spreading to other Lakewood residents in several different settings (not residents contracting it outside of Lakewood) or a number of individuals (not 4 or 5) contacting it from another locally contracted case at even one community event would indicate a need for concern and further precautions. At that point elderly and immunocompromised should be taking strict measures. If we were to see incidence of spread beyond that, particularly coupled with several hospital transports, that would signal the potential beginning of a wave necessitating strict community wide measures. The frum healthcare providers are very coordinated at this point and real time information should be available fairly quickly unlike what we saw before pesach.

Conversely, multiple individuals contracting the virus outside of Lakewood is not particularly  concerning since it does not call the premise of herd immunity or near herd immunity in Lakewood into question.

[Lurker]

Conversely, multiple individuals contracting the virus outside of Lakewood is not particularly  concerning since it does not call the premise of herd immunity or near herd immunity in Lakewood into question.

Have you seen the data and community warnings that have come out of CH this week regarding reinfections?

[avromie7]

What if it takes a couple of months? Is that acceptable?

That leaves more than enough time to change course if the situation warrants it.

[Lurker]

That leaves more than enough time to change course if the situation warrants it.

It seems like the main concern isn't people getting sick, since the fatality rate is relatively low and long-term damage is just a theory for now. CMIIW, but the 2 main concerns I'm seeing from you and @Yard sale are a massive wave overwhelming the healthcare system, and enough spread to trigger another lockdown. So my question is, when do the flags go up?

[thaber]

Only as a part of a much bigger picture. Hate 'em or hate 'em, NY's restrictions effectively lowered the number of active infections to a point where spread became minimal. Not only did it keep hotspots from sprouting (bars, restaurants, churches, etc.), but it also kept people out of the city. People who live there left to places where they either felt safer or less restricted, and people who would normally visit stayed away either for safety or because there was nothing to do (no shows or games, nowhere to eat, hang out, etc.).

At a certain point, however, the tide does begin to turn. Restrictions in NY are easing, so many people who left town are returning. As the numbers rise around the rest of the country, their restrictions get tighter, and people start traveling to less restrictive locales they deem to be safer, such as a place which looks to be passed it's outbreak. In this regard, we're seeing a reverse of what happened in Florida during NY's peak. A quick look at TSA's checkpoint numbers in conjunction with the surge of new positive cases will tell you that greater spread is coming. TSA logged an average of around 575k passengers in the last 14 days. The 14 days before, they averaged about 440k, and the 14 days before that they averaged just over 300K daily travelers. That's an increase of almost 90% from a month ago. When infections get reintroduced into the NY metro area, and they coincide with the reopening of higher risk public spaces, the numbers are guaranteed to go up. This is being played out on a smaller scale in Lakewood, and I would be shocked not to hear of more such cases in other NY/NJ communities over the next couple of weeks.

Additionally, a theory bandied about here which I subscribe to is the weather factor. As long as the weather in nice and people can be outdoors, I think spread is somewhat limited. However, with hotter and more humid conditions, people will look to move to indoor air conditioned spaces. Combine that with a declining amount of people taking precautions, either because of a false sense of security from low numbers over the last month, or because of quarantine fatigue, and you're creating optimal conditions for a spike in spread. Of note, today NY recorded their highest new positive count since 6/2. I don't think that's an anomaly; I think it's the start of a new upward trend.

This is what happened in California. Restrictions were quicker and tighter to begin with and there was much less of a first wave as a result. But now that restrictions have loosened the second wave is bigger than Chicago or NY where the first wave was much harder hitting.
However, the frum community, which was hit pretty strongly in the first is so far having a light second. And the general community doesn't seem as severe per capita, presumably the medical community is better equipped for this knowledge wise

[Lurker]

This is what happened in California. Restrictions were quicker and tighter to begin with and there was much less of a first wave as a result. But now that restrictions have loosened the second wave is bigger than Chicago or NY where the first wave was much harder hitting.
However, the frum community, which was hit pretty strongly in the first is so far having a light second. And the general community doesn't seem as severe per capita, presumably the medical community is better equipped for this knowledge wise

Right, and this was a hugely underrated benefit of early restrictions. If CA's positives had happened at the same time as NY's when the medical knowledge was minimal, the results would have been catastrophic. Hopefully the residual health impacts on individuals is minimal, limiting the damage of this current surge.

[Yard sale]

It seems like the main concern isn't people getting sick, since the fatality rate is relatively low and long-term damage is just a theory for now. CMIIW, but the 2 main concerns I'm seeing from you and @Yard sale are a massive wave overwhelming the healthcare system, and enough spread to trigger another lockdown. So my question is, when do the flags go up?

To be honest I don’t think overwhelming the healthcare system would be the only concern or even the primary concern where there to be  a massive wave. The sheer number of those infected would concern me despite the ultra low fatality rate among the general population since it would increase the likelihood of those who are at risk unwittingly coming into contact with infected individuals  despite taking strict precautions. At some  point you have such significant prevalence of disease that it’s almost impossible for those who are vulnerable to avoid some contact.  I simply don’t see any indication of Lakewood getting there at this point. You never want to deal with a massive wave after it has already occurred. You always want to be ahead of the game. The question is when it is reasonable to start being concerned.

[Lurker]

You never want to deal with a massive wave after it has already occurred. You always want to be ahead of the game. The question is when it is reasonable to start being concerned.

So is it reasonable to take some precautions now to help minimize the chances of infections happening? Similar to speed limits, seat belts, and DUI checkpoints to help keep driving safer?

[yuneeq]

Deaths are starting to spike in AZ, FL, TX, and a chart showing comparing changes in test count vs new case count in all 3 states.

[Lurker]

Deaths are starting to spike in AZ, FL, TX, and a chart showing comparing changes in test count vs new case count in all 3 states.

The case count data is actually worse, since the data stops on June 20-23, and the daily new positives have broken records multiple times in those states since then.

[Yard sale]

So is it reasonable to take some precautions now to help minimize the chances of infections happening? Similar to speed limits, seat belts, and DUI checkpoints to help keep driving safer?

I would think cost/benefit is the way to go. We would never institute DUI checks every two blocks on a semi permanent basis even though it would certainly  save some lives. If there was a rampant epidemic of drunk driving  we probably would. At this point I think the risk is negligible enough that only  easy trade-offs are warranted. Telling everyone to daven outside in the yards is not proportionate. Telling everyone to wear masks all the time even if they feel uncomfortable is not proportionate. Avoiding venues where thousands of people will be together where there are reasonable alternatives or avoiding substantial crowds in areas where there are particular vulnerabilities such as  long-term care settings seems like a reasonable precaution at this point. I realize this is subjective and that others may have a different subjective opinion of what is reasonable at this point.

[chevron]

Many people have accepted the fact that getting it is invitable

The vaccine news is slow. It's just impossible to lock everyone in, as fatality rates thank God drop, I think people are worried but resigned.

I think people are thinking that they're going to get it anyways so white lock themselves up for 6 months to a year

[Lurker]

I would think cost/benefit is the way to go. We would never institute DUI checks every two blocks on a semi permanent basis even though it would certainly  save some lives. If there was a rampant epidemic of drunk driving  we probably would.

So if there were bars in surrounding areas that were notorious for drunk drivers, it would be reasonable to set up DUI checkpoints to keep them from driving on your neighborhood's streets?

Avoiding venues where thousands of people will be together where there are reasonable alternatives or avoiding substantial crowds in areas where there are particular vulnerabilities such as  long-term care settings seems like a reasonable precaution at this point.

An infected person is indoors with no masks or social distancing with 100 other people, let's say in a shul, and let's assume 50% were previously infected and their immunity has not run out yet. If even 10 people catch it from that person, and they go out into the community, what are the chances it can be stopped before it gets to your threshold of acceptable cases and you're no longer ahead of the game?

I realize this is subjective and that others may have a different subjective opinion of what is reasonable at this point.

Absolutely. I'm just trying to figure out how you plan on staying ahead of the game. This thing moves pretty fast.

[Lurker]

Many people have accepted the fact that getting it is invitable

The vaccine news is slow. It's just impossible to lock everyone in, as fatality rates thank God drop, I think people are worried but resigned.

I think people are thinking that they're going to get it anyways so white lock themselves up for 6 months to a year

Fatalism. I'm not sure what Judaism's take on that is.

[Afrages6]

Fatalism. I'm not sure what Judaism's take on that is.

Would be nice if we heard half as much about this as we do about fancy weddings

[avromie7]

Would be nice if we heard half as much about this as we do about fancy weddings

Are you referring to bitachon and hishtadlus?

[ExGingi]

I start feeling like there's a 2nd wave of COVID-19 fight news (I.e. Headlines being recycled after being in the news months ago, such as blood type, vitamin D, etc).

[PlatinumGuy]

Israels new cases are almost all asymptomatic or extremely light. There was a slight uptick in ventilators and severe cases but they have come down over the past few days. 

Regardless the country is running like normal with even trains and theaters reopening again. If people are smart enough to keep their masks on the numbers will slow. Most of the spread has been from the reopening of schools. They are closing next week for summer vacation. I would expect the numbers to peak mid next week and then fall fast back to under 200.

I see the reality on the ground here in Israel. They speak for themselves.

Perhaps your vision isn't as great as you think it is

[jose34]

Perhaps your vision isn't as great as you think it is

Took much longer for cases to get serious than the first wave though.