Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 100068 times)

Online aygart

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #760 on: December 21, 2020, 10:21:09 AM »
What doesn't make sense is people basing what makes sense on their boich svaros and anecdotal evidence. Of course, these are the same people who assumed "exposed" to mean infected, until it didn't.
At least one of the cases I know of claims to be a reinfection (though there was not confirmed COVID-19 test the first time around, but that person's husband was in the hospital for COVID-19 back then, so it's reasonable to assume that whatever mild symptoms she had back then were indeed COVID-19).

ANd still following in the same folly ::)
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #761 on: December 21, 2020, 10:26:57 AM »
At least one of the cases I know of claims to be a reinfection (though there was not confirmed COVID-19 test the first time around, but that person's husband was in the hospital for COVID-19 back then, so it's reasonable to assume that whatever mild symptoms she had back then were indeed COVID-19).
It's more reasonable to assume that it's not a reinfection.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #762 on: December 21, 2020, 10:30:37 AM »
It's more reasonable to assume that it's not a reinfection.

That was my assumption, but said person vehemently claims that it is. Who am I to argue?
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Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #763 on: December 21, 2020, 10:41:35 AM »
There are countless examples of people in the same household both having "symptoms" and only one testing positive or having antibodies. That includes in my own family twice now.

This exposure nonsense needs to be put to bed already.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline yitzgar

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #764 on: December 21, 2020, 11:06:35 AM »
Yup, really the term exposure is used incorrectly here. Exposure to a person with the virus, doesn't necessarily mean exposure to the virus. It all depends if the person is contagious at the time, which is unknown until a few days later.

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #765 on: December 21, 2020, 11:25:21 AM »
Exposure to a person with the virus doesn't necessarily mean exposure to the virus.
BINGO

And even if you are exposed you’re not guaranteed to become infected.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline yitzgar

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #766 on: December 21, 2020, 11:28:05 AM »
BINGO

And even if you are exposed you’re not guaranteed to become infected.
Source? (Assuming the person is susceptible to the virus ie no low level immunity)

Offline AsherO

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #767 on: December 21, 2020, 11:44:45 AM »
Source? (Assuming the person is susceptible to the virus ie no low level immunity)

Facts on the ground where one spouse was ill and the other spouse never got sick and doesn’t have antibodies
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #768 on: December 21, 2020, 12:06:11 PM »
Source? (Assuming the person is susceptible to the virus ie no low level immunity)
There are countless cases where it happened.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Online Euclid

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #769 on: December 21, 2020, 12:12:25 PM »
There are countless cases where it happened.
My wife had covid and I didn't catch it.

Offline yitzgar

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #770 on: December 21, 2020, 12:22:09 PM »
Facts on the ground where one spouse was ill and the other spouse never got sick and doesn’t have antibodies
Reread the op

Offline yitzgar

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #771 on: December 21, 2020, 12:22:29 PM »
There are countless cases where it happened.
You guys missed the point

Offline yitzgar

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #772 on: December 21, 2020, 12:24:07 PM »
My wife had covid and I didn't catch it.
Many such cases. The question is if the infected spouse was actually shedding the virus at the time the other spouse was exposed to them. It's very possible that they weren't exposed to the virus, rather just exposed to the person carrying the virus.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #773 on: December 21, 2020, 01:00:42 PM »
Many such cases. The question is if the infected spouse was actually shedding the virus at the time the other spouse was exposed to them. It's very possible that they weren't exposed to the virus, rather just exposed to the person carrying the virus.

You’re thinking in black and white terms. It’s possible that some shedding outside of that window happens. Even within that window viral loads vary from one patient to another.

It’s certainly possible that someone exposed to one single copy of a virus and not get infected. Are you asking what the threshold is for definitive infection? There are too many variables (barriers/PPE/is it airborne, immun system variables, closeness and duration of exposure, airflow, etc etc etc etc etc) for anyone to put a number on it.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #774 on: December 21, 2020, 01:37:26 PM »
Many such cases. The question is if the infected spouse was actually shedding the virus at the time the other spouse was exposed to them. It's very possible that they weren't exposed to the virus, rather just exposed to the person carrying the virus.

1. How can that be measured outside of a controlled setting with intentional exposure?
2. One possible way to get an idea is from people who were exposed simultaneously where one was infected and one not. Considering that there were weddings and shuls where people were known to have caught it but not everyone did. That is pretty clear as well.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline yitzgar

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #775 on: December 21, 2020, 01:43:22 PM »
1. How can that be measured outside of a controlled setting with intentional exposure?
2. One possible way to get an idea is from people who were exposed simultaneously where one was infected and one not. Considering that there were weddings and shuls where people were known to have caught it but not everyone did. That is pretty clear as well.
Also very difficult, because in shul not everyone is has the same level of exposure to the carrier.

Offline yitzgar

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #776 on: December 21, 2020, 01:44:38 PM »
You’re thinking in black and white terms. It’s possible that some shedding outside of that window happens. Even within that window viral loads vary from one patient to another.

It’s certainly possible that someone exposed to one single copy of a virus and not get infected. Are you asking what the threshold is for definitive infection? There are too many variables (barriers/PPE/is it airborne, immun system variables, closeness and duration of exposure, airflow, etc etc etc etc etc) for anyone to put a number on it.
It is certainly possible that this is so. It was stated as fact, though, and I was asking for a source that it actually works that way.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #777 on: December 21, 2020, 01:51:01 PM »
It is certainly possible that this is so. It was stated as fact, though, and I was asking for a source that it actually works that way.

I think that the only fact that we might be able to agree on is that no-one really knows anything about this, there are best guesses, assumptions, etc., but this virus continuously produces new surprises. It has been my contention since the early days that it might have been sent so that people should finally acknowledge the shortcomings of human knowledge and understanding.
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Offline Ergel

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #778 on: December 21, 2020, 01:56:32 PM »
I think that the only fact that we might be able to agree on is that no-one really knows anything about this, there are best guesses, assumptions, etc., but this virus continuously produces new surprises. It has been my contention since the early days that it might have been sent so that people should finally acknowledge the shortcomings of human knowledge and understanding.
I totally agree with this sentiment.
However, I hope the irony of you using this argument at this stage isn't lost on you
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #779 on: December 21, 2020, 02:15:08 PM »
Also very difficult, because in shul not everyone is has the same level of exposure to the carrier.
If it is not something knowable or measurable that how does this have any practical application and how does this have to do with anything that anyone said here? Who cares if the reason is because they weren't exposed to the same amount of viral particles or if they "happened" to sneeze when they were exposed and expelled the viral particles or some other reason? What are you getting at? THe point is that they were exposed and didn't get infected.
Feelings don't care about your facts