Author Topic: Is it time to reopen the country?  (Read 42640 times)

Offline KSMH

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Is it time to reopen the country?
« on: May 10, 2020, 02:58:47 PM »
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Offline KSMH

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Offline AsherO

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Offline KSMH

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2020, 07:03:23 PM »
@KSMH You understood this?
More or less, the parts that I read.
This writer claims heard immunity is achieved at lower rate then 60%.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2020, 07:04:47 PM »
More or less, the parts that I read.
This writer claims heard immunity is achieved at lower rate then 60%.

I understood as much too, but the scientific/mathematics stuff made my eyes glaze over...
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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2020, 07:07:29 PM »
I understood as much too, but the scientific/mathematics stuff made my eyes glaze over...
Try this thread, it helps explaining.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1259552285102727168
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Offline Ergel

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2020, 07:15:42 PM »
Try this thread, it helps explaining.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1259552285102727168
And yet, the author of the study disagrees with his interpretation
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This post is based on our work, but misrepresents it by failing to acknowledge known caveats pointed out by the authors and peers, and worse going on to speculate about parameters we say are essentially unknown.<a href="https://t.co/fen17pU7f2">https://t.co/fen17pU7f2</a></p>&mdash; Caetano Souto Maior (@caesoma) <a href="https://twitter.com/caesoma/status/1259594026719875074?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 10, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2020, 07:17:48 PM »
Try this thread, it helps explaining.
Is their conclusion that the Sweden approach worked?
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Offline Yard sale

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2020, 07:19:00 PM »
 So basically even with the caveats Sweden reached herd immunity at a far far lower cost than originally assumed. Just about every number associated with this disease has been wildly overhyped and this is no exception. The right wing wackos who were comparing it to the flu were just as off base and guilty of lulling the more vulnerable population into a sense of complacency  but it’s time to put this thing in context and act accordingly, not just keep touting a running tally of deaths (At the very least put it in context with average daily deaths from previous years so you don’t get 95 year olds whose time has come with incidental Covid positive deaths) and positive tests who have long since recovered.


Offline skyguy918

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2020, 08:23:01 PM »
(At the very least put it in context with average daily deaths from previous years so you don’t get 95 year olds whose time has come with incidental Covid positive deaths)
I don't understand. Do you think the global death toll from covid is going to look better in that context? Or do you mean specifically when it comes to evaluating the lockdown approach?

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2020, 08:44:38 PM »
So basically even with the caveats Sweden reached herd immunity at a far far lower cost than originally assumed. Just about every number associated with this disease has been wildly overhyped and this is no exception. The right wing wackos who were comparing it to the flu were just as off base and guilty of lulling the more vulnerable population into a sense of complacency  but it’s time to put this thing in context and act accordingly, not just keep touting a running tally of deaths (At the very least put it in context with average daily deaths from previous years so you don’t get 95 year olds whose time has come with incidental Covid positive deaths) and positive tests who have long since recovered.



When put in the context of average daily deaths from previous years it looks MUCH worse. Based on that the numbers are being grossly UNDERESTIMATED. This was posted in an NYT article here.
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Offline Yard sale

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2020, 08:53:52 PM »
I don't understand. Do you think the global death toll from covid is going to look better in that context? Or do you mean specifically when it comes to evaluating the lockdown approach?

Better or worse it’s the only way to provide context. My hunch is that there was initially a lot of underreporting going on, especially in March and early April when there was far less awareness, hence the NYT article, but at this point I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some hospital covid diagnosis based on symptoms that are inaccurate as well as some deaths of other causes particularly among those who already had very short life expectancy such as long term care residents that are incidentally covid positive.

If the three year daily average deaths in NY state for today is 400 and the State is reporting 220 covid deaths and 250 other deaths that is significant, since that is a good indication that the true covid death toll is far lower. Of course, the reverse would also be true.

Additionally reporting the average death toll gives context. In a country where the average daily death toll is 1200, a hundred fifty covid deaths bringing the total to 1350 is significant, but not nearly the same as in a country in which the average daily death rate is 300.

The bottom line is, numbers need to be depoliticized, and placed in context. Not cumulative positives, not a running total of deaths, but good actionable data. Random antibody testing. Current positives relative to testing trends broken down by locality. Recent emergency room and transport data on the local level. Breakdown of the above by the long term care population vs. the general population. Etc.

Otherwise we are flying blind and letting the numbers be manipulated by politicians for their own purposes. If the numbers show that I’m wrong and we have a bigger problem than I think so be it. At least we have objective, reliable, actionable data.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2020, 08:58:55 PM by Yard sale »

Offline skyguy918

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2020, 08:58:25 PM »
Better or worse it’s the only way to provide context. My hunch is that there was initially a lot of underreporting going on, especially in March and early April when there was far less awareness, hence the NYT article, but at this point I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some hospital covid diagnosis based on symptoms that are inaccurate as well as some deaths of other causes that are incidentals covid positive.

If the three year daily average deaths in NY state for today is 400 and the State is reporting 220 covid deaths and 250 other deaths that is significant, since that is a good indication that the true covid death toll is far lower. Of course, the reverse would also be true.

Additionally reporting the average death toll gives context. In a country where the average daily death toll is 1200, a hundred fifty covid deaths bringing the total to 1350 is significant, but not nearly the same as in a countywide where the average is 300.

The bottom line is, numbers need to be depoliticized, and placed in context. Not cumulative positives, not a running total of deaths, but good actionable data. Random antibody testing. Current positives relative to testing trends broken down by locality. Recent emergency room and transport data on the local level. Breakdown of the above by the long term care population vs. the general population. Etc.

Otherwise we are flying blind and letting the numbers be manipulated by politicians for their own purposes. If the numbers show that I’m wrong and we have a bigger problem than I think so be it. At least we have objective, reliable, actionable data.
I honestly assumed you already knew the answer. The answer is that it looks worse when examining excess deaths, not better. That's true even in places like NY, where it feels like they're labeling everyone as covid. A simple Google search will show you this - it's been reported on pretty extensively.

Offline Yard sale

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #13 on: May 10, 2020, 09:00:56 PM »
I honestly assumed you already knew the answer. The answer is that it looks worse when examining excess deaths, not better. That's true even in places like NY, where it feels like they're labeling everyone as covid. A simple Google search will show you this - it's been reported on pretty extensively.

Even assuming that is still true that does not tell the whole story.We are talking trends as well. How do you see where things are holding if you don’t have reliable numbers?

Offline skyguy918

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2020, 09:02:13 PM »
Even assuming that is still true that does not tell the whole story.We are talking trends as well. How do you see where things are holding if you don’t have reliable numbers.
You're not being mechadesh anything. This has been studied pretty well already, and they're continuing to track it.

Here's one example:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #15 on: May 10, 2020, 09:31:53 PM »
So basically even with the caveats Sweden reached herd immunity at a far far lower cost than originally assumed. Just about every number associated with this disease has been wildly overhyped and this is no exception. The right wing wackos who were comparing it to the flu were just as off base and guilty of lulling the more vulnerable population into a sense of complacency  but it’s time to put this thing in context and act accordingly, not just keep touting a running tally of deaths (At the very least put it in context with average daily deaths from previous years so you don’t get 95 year olds whose time has come with incidental Covid positive deaths) and positive tests who have long since recovered.
Contagion seems to have been underestimated by a factor of around 10...
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Offline KSMH

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2020, 12:47:33 AM »
Tesla suit.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/getting-back-work

For contexts read this PR.

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2020, 09:51:02 AM »
When put in the context of average daily deaths from previous years it looks MUCH worse. Based on that the numbers are being grossly UNDERESTIMATED. This was posted in an NYT article here.

This seems to be the source of the NYT article. Notice the recent trends. Not sure what to make of the low numbers the last week but obviously on a far sharper downward slope than the daily official deaths numbers would have you believe.
(If there’s something I’m miss understanding about the chart fill me in.)

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

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Re: Is it time to reopen the country?
« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2020, 09:57:26 AM »
This seems to be the source of the NYT article. Notice the recent trends. Not sure what to make of the low numbers the last week but obviously on a far sharper downward slope than the daily official deaths numbers would have you believe.
(If there’s something I’m miss understanding about the chart fill me in.)

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Quote
Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.
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