Is it time to reopen the country?

[S209]

NY had 105 deaths reported yesterday and 106 deaths the day before that. New Jersey had 162 deaths reported yesterday

According to worldometer NY had 168 and NJ had 143 yesterday
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

@Yard sale has been posting information by region in NJ

[AsherO]

It's much better this way, it helps even out the swings especially delays in reporting.

That’s the whole point of a rolling average. Downside is if there’s a big uptick one day, it doesn’t fully reflect in the rolling average.

[avromie7]

That’s the whole point of a rolling average. Downside is if there’s a big uptick one day, it doesn’t fully reflect in the rolling average.

2 days later it will be fully reflected.

[Lurker]

That’s the whole point of a rolling average. Downside is if there’s a big uptick one day, it doesn’t fully reflect in the rolling average.

I don't see how knowing about a single day's uptick is of any particular value in this instance. When the cause of death is violence, then an uptick has correlating data that makes accuracy of daily reports important. But with an illness of indeterminate time, and a myriads of variables in each individual's illness, a 3 day rolling total is a little more relevant, IMO.

[aygart]

Appeal to authority

Considering that none of us here are epidemiologists or immunologists, some appealing to authority is in place.

[aygart]

I'm not saying no restrictions, I'm saying how does having restrictions today that will be lifted in 2 weeks from now solve the issue? What do we gain by keeping said restrictions in place for another 2 weeks?

I don't see what benefit a few more weeks until fully reopening will give us.

?

[aygart]

Appeal to authority I'm not saying no restrictions, I'm saying how does having restrictions today that will be lifted in 2 weeks from now solve the issue? What do we gain by keeping said restrictions in place for another 2 weeks?

. But to argue that we should go from 0 to 100 demonstrates a lack of respect for a deadly pandemic that we don't yet understand. By moving slowly we can course correct with fewer consequences if needed.

I'm not saying 0 to 100, I'm saying we'll be at 50 in a month from now and we'll be staying there for a while, what are we gaining by taking it slow? If we were still on the down side of the first wave I would understand that we need to be extremely cautious to make sure we continue going down, but at this point we're already at the bottom. This is more relevant to NY/NJ that are past the first wave.

What it seems to me that @avromie7 is saying, despite his having written "fully opening" is that there is no point in going in baby steps. There can and should still be some restrictions which can possibly last for months. The way they are picking and choosing industries in a way that seems very arbitrary is nonsensical (and probably illegal). Opening car dealers now and, let's say, gift shops in 2 weeks does not seem to have any benefit at all. There is nothing we are going to see more in 2 weeks than now.

[Jellybelly]

What it seems to me that @avromie7 is saying, despite his having written "fully opening" is that there is no point in going in baby steps. There can and should still be some restrictions which can possibly last for months. The way they are picking and choosing industries in a way that seems very arbitrary is nonsensical (and probably illegal). Opening car dealers now and, let's say, gift shops in 2 weeks does not seem to have any benefit at all. There is nothing we are going to see more in 2 weeks than now.

Have there been any successful lawsuits in this area?
Suing the government for not letting certain industries open...

[avromie7]

Considering that none of us here are epidemiologists or immunologists, some appealing to authority is in place.

We have to trust a lot of what the experts are saying, but just saying the experts don't like your idea is an appeal to authority that isn't warranted.

What it seems to me that @avromie7 is saying, despite his having written "fully opening" is that there is no point in going in baby steps. There can and should still be some restrictions which can possibly last for months. The way they are picking and choosing industries in a way that seems very arbitrary is nonsensical (and probably illegal). Opening car dealers now and, let's say, gift shops in 2 weeks does not seem to have any benefit at all. There is nothing we are going to see more in 2 weeks than now.

This is correct, I apologize if it wasn't clear. What I mean by fully open in this context is open to the point that will be left in place for months to come.

[aygart]

Have there been any successful lawsuits in this area?
Suing the government for not letting certain industries open...

Not yet as far as I know. Until now it has mostly been based on type of activity which would have much better legal standing. Once it is an arcbitrary picking and choosing i do not see how it could be legal.

[Afrages6]

According to worldometer NY had 168 and NJ had 143 yesterday
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

@Yard sale has been posting information by region in NJ

I got my numbers directly from Cuomo and Murphy.

[aygart]

We have to trust a lot of what the experts are saying, but just saying the experts don't like your idea is an appeal to authority that isn't warranted.
 This is correct, I apologize if it wasn't clear. What I mean by fully open in this context is open to the point that will be left in place for months to come.

We are mostly in agreement, but I do feel that with careful monitoring and testing which was not at all in place in Feb we can find instances of localized spreading and there is a purpose in reaching the long term restrictions in 2-3 stages based on activity and setting instead of all at once.

[KSMH]

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1263139300016828417

[aygart]

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1263139300016828417

His tweet is a VERY poor description of what he quoted. Almost belongs in the Far Rockaway minyan thread.

[KSMH]

His tweet is a VERY poor description of what he quoted. Almost belongs in the Far Rockaway minyan thread.

Just like articles on both sides of the Isle, reporters trying to prove a point.

[Iz]

Just like articles on both sides of the Isle, reporters trying to prove a point.

Of Man?

[aygart]

Just like articles on both sides of the Isle, reporters trying to prove a point.

What was the point he was trying to prove

[Afrages6]

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1263170459450978314?s=21

[shwarmabob]

City of Córdoba (Argentina) resumes lockdown after virus cases spike
Officials in provincial capital roll back easing of lockdown measures following a sharp spike in coronavirus infections, authorities confirm.

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/city-of-cordoba-resumes-lockdown-after-virus-cases-spike.phtml

[Lurker]

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1263170459450978314?s=21

Ah, JP Morgan, the world famous unbiased scientist! That's amazing!