Author Topic: The Day After  (Read 6246 times)

Offline Proisrael

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #20 on: June 21, 2020, 09:55:46 AM »
1) I've seen you use Israel a couple of times to predict how the US economy will fare. Is there any data that suggests that the Israeli economy is an indication for future US performance?

2) Israel has 20k cases and 303 deaths. By comparison, the US announced over 30k new cases on each of the last 2 days, and the lowest announced deaths on any day in the past 3 month was 295. We're not talking apples to apples with Covid impact...

3) For your insistence that the economy is virtually back to normal in Israel, I don't see how that"s possible without the tourists and with a sizable chunk of students and temporary residents not back in the country yet. Additionally, I can't see how Israel would be the only country to to be impacted in their imports and exports of products. I also don't see how a packed restaurant means the business can survive another government shutdown, which is a constant imminent threat.

My point is, there's no data to show that everything is great, other than people on the street seeing activities they associate with pre-Covid times, definitely no confidence that things will even stay the way they are, and most certainly no indication that you can extrapolate Israel's economy onto the US.

1) I've seen you use Israel a couple of times to predict how the US economy will fare. Is there any data that suggests that the Israeli economy is an indication for future US performance?

There is no reason to think it wont be the same. If anything the US should be better off because of all the stimulus.

2) Israel has 20k cases and 303 deaths. By comparison, the US announced over 30k new cases on each of the last 2 days, and the lowest announced deaths on any day in the past 3 month was 295. We're not talking apples to apples with Covid impact...

that will not have an effect either way on opening the country. Israel had a much stronger lockdown then 75% of the USA.

3) For your insistence that the economy is virtually back to normal in Israel, I don't see how that"s possible without the tourists and with a sizable chunk of students and temporary residents not back in the country yet. Additionally, I can't see how Israel would be the only country to to be impacted in their imports and exports of products. I also don't see how a packed restaurant means the business can survive another government shutdown, which is a constant imminent threat.

They will not be shutting the country down again. If anything last Thursday (when there were over 300 new cases) they decided on opening theaters and the trains throughout the country. This new wave is not nearly as severe as the last one. With the amount of new cases (well over 3k) there should be a lot more people in severe/ventilators situations, and there has been maybe 5-10 total new severe cases. 

Offline B.D.Da'ehu

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #21 on: June 21, 2020, 10:07:07 AM »
They will not be shutting the country down again. If anything last Thursday (when there were over 300 new cases) they decided on opening theaters and the trains throughout the country. This new wave is not nearly as severe as the last one. With the amount of new cases (well over 3k) there should be a lot more people in severe/ventilators situations, and there has been maybe 5-10 total new severe cases.
Over this weekend the number of COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalization in Israel increased from 146 to 192, representing a 30% rise.


The reason Israel won't be locking down again so fast is because the economy was hit so hard they cannot afford another shutdown without truly disastrous long-term effects.

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #22 on: June 21, 2020, 10:19:24 AM »
An Israel without tourists and students is hardly a normal Israel.
The economic pain must be massive.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline Kobe Bryant

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #23 on: June 21, 2020, 11:40:29 AM »
This can be a disaster in the making.
In what sense?

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #24 on: June 21, 2020, 11:56:44 AM »
Over this weekend the number of COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalization in Israel increased from 146 to 192, representing a 30% rise.


The reason Israel won't be locking down again so fast is because the economy was hit so hard they cannot afford another shutdown without truly disastrous long-term effects.
Or lockdowns don't work in long run as we saw first time round

Offline biobook

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #25 on: June 21, 2020, 12:12:36 PM »
An Israel without tourists and students is hardly a normal Israel.
The economic pain must be massive.
It's not normal, but also not unfamiliar.  Tourism plummeted during the Gulf War, during the Intifada.  How long did those recoveries take?  What helped, what hindered?

Offline S209

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #26 on: June 21, 2020, 02:04:50 PM »
Or lockdowns don't work in long run as we saw first time round
Really? Where exactly have you seen evidence of this? China, South Korea, Singapore, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Australia, New Zealand?
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Re: The Day After
« Reply #27 on: June 21, 2020, 02:57:25 PM »
Really? Where exactly have you seen evidence of this? China, South Korea, Singapore, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Australia, New Zealand?
I was talking about Israel specific.

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #28 on: June 21, 2020, 03:01:57 PM »
Or lockdowns don't work in long run as we saw first time round
I was talking about Israel specific.

Israel didn't lock down completely, as evidenced by the amount of Covid cases traced back to people returning from out of the country, and they arguably opened up too quickly, due to economic pressures.
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Offline yaakov35

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #29 on: June 21, 2020, 03:03:26 PM »
Israel didn't lock down completely, as evidenced by the amount of Covid cases traced back to people returning from out of the country, and they arguably opened up too quickly, due to economic pressures.
Was mostly citizens, and Israel most definitely did lock down completely.

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #30 on: June 21, 2020, 03:05:08 PM »
Was mostly citizens, and Israel most definitely did lock down completely.

What difference does it make if they were citizens? People came from out of the country and were put in a position where they actually infected other Israelis. That's not "locked down."
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Re: The Day After
« Reply #31 on: June 21, 2020, 03:08:36 PM »
Was mostly citizens, and Israel most definitely did lock down completely.
New Zealand didn't allow food deliveries or take out at all. Israel had a very mild lockdown.
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Offline moish

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #32 on: June 21, 2020, 03:59:46 PM »
I was hoping for an extreme lockdown, rip off the bandaid style, but it never came.

Oh, and Israel can survive without tourism.

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #33 on: June 21, 2020, 04:02:27 PM »
Oh, and Israel can survive without tourism.

Surviving and recovering to pre-Covid levels are not the same thing.
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Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #34 on: June 21, 2020, 04:10:32 PM »
Surviving and recovering to pre-Covid levels are not the same thing.
From wikipedia

Quote
Tourism
Main article: Tourism in Israel
Tourism is one of Israel's major sources of income in the country, attracting 3.6 million foreign tourists in 2017, yielding a 25 percent growth since 2016 and contributed ₪20 billion to the Israeli economy making it an all-time record. The most popular paid site is Masada.

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #35 on: June 21, 2020, 04:13:45 PM »
From wikipedia
Just on a side point its estimated that 1 million Israelis leave Israel over חופש הגדול with most of them spending that money now in Israel

Offline S209

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #36 on: June 21, 2020, 04:43:08 PM »
I was talking about Israel specific.
There is no evidence that lockdowns don’t work from Israel. There is evidence that the “lockdown” they previously implemented wasn’t sufficient to completely stomp out the virus.
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Re: The Day After
« Reply #37 on: June 21, 2020, 04:51:47 PM »
From wikipedia

Check how much it contributes to GDP. Sure, it's important, but like I said, not critical.

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #38 on: June 21, 2020, 04:53:33 PM »
I was hoping for an extreme lockdown, rip off the bandaid style, but it never came.

Oh, and Israel can survive without tourism.
Too much of the public doesn't believe in the virus or the government so the politicians won't risk it.

 
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Re: The Day After
« Reply #39 on: June 21, 2020, 05:19:56 PM »
What difference does it make if they were citizens? People came from out of the country and were put in a position where they actually infected other Israelis. That's not "locked down."
There is no evidence that lockdowns don’t work from Israel. There is evidence that the “lockdown” they previously implemented wasn’t sufficient to completely stomp out the virus.
You can redefine "lockdown" as you wish. The bottom line is it's looking like a failure.