Author Topic: The Day After  (Read 6108 times)

Offline cmey

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The Day After
« on: May 14, 2020, 03:26:46 PM »
https://mishpacha.com/corona-crisis-the-day-after/

Eastern Union is going into the distressed notes business.

https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/05/eastern-unions-new-distressed-notes-initiative-prepares-commercial-real-estate-investors-for-distressed-note-acquisition-offers.html

Will businesses all need to adapt, or will most snap back in a relatively short time to business as usual?

Offline YitzyS

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2020, 01:07:35 PM »
.

Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2020, 01:19:15 PM »
.
What does this mean? They understand that frum standards are out of control?
No more simchos so no need to show off?
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Offline Lurker

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2020, 01:21:35 PM »
What does this mean? They understand that frum standars are out of control?

Either they don't want to encourage the community's perceived spending on excesses , or they don't want to be carrying high cost inventory during a time of economic uncertainty.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2020, 01:25:17 PM »
Either they don't want to encourage the community's perceived spending on excesses , or they don't want to be carrying high cost inventory during a time of economic uncertainty.
Maybe it can be as simple as not a profitable item?
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Offline Lurker

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2020, 01:36:45 PM »
Maybe it can be as simple as not a profitable item?

Then why the announcement and the posturing of reassessing "lifestyle values?"
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Offline yaakov35

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2020, 01:38:25 PM »
What does this mean? They understand that frum standards are out of control?
No more simchos so no need to show off?
He barely sells expensive wines anyway. Its a good statement, makes it sound like he's really concerned about the community. If he sold a lot of expensive stuff there's no way he would do it.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2020, 01:39:30 PM »
Then why the announcement and the posturing of reassessing "lifestyle values?"
...because it sounds good? Why pass up an opportunity.
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Offline YesThatsMe

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #8 on: June 19, 2020, 01:48:50 PM »
My 2 cents:

Anyone who had a real business, which had solid fundamentals and was run 100% kosher, will be fine. He got a PPP, got/will get an EIDL, and will get Main Street lending. If he laid off employees, they got basically full income and are ready to come back end of July at the latest.

Interest rates are low, anyone in resi or multifam Real Estate will be fine, his property will only be more valuable now.

Nursing homes were handed very large grants and will have a lot more gov funding after this as well, to make up for higher payroll and less patients. Actually, this crises may have saved the industry.

All medical will do very well.

Retail sucked since early 2010's, don't blame covid. Jewish (specialized) retail is already back to full boom in the tri-state.

Simchas will not change (except only in the very very short term).

Anyone in Amazon, well - thats what happens when you get into someone else business, Bezos calls the shots. It's a risk that is unrelated to Covid. And now online sales will pick up so hang in there, 2021 will be a homer.

And any guys who worked for cash "schwartz" or stam churn here and there: Get a normal job and do things right, because when things go south the gov will now take care.

Proof all the this true - the markets.


Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #9 on: June 19, 2020, 01:55:51 PM »
Proof all the this true - the markets.
If the markets turn south does that mean all that was false.
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Offline YesThatsMe

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2020, 01:59:14 PM »
If the markets turn south does that mean all that was false.

Depends how far south. There are certain very hard hit industries, mainly travel related. But as long as the bond markets hold and credit is accessible, all will be fine. The name of the game is liquidity.

The guy having a coffee withe Gershy Tress in Jan 2020 wasn't thinking of being a sales rep for Norwegian Crusie though.

My response was mainly to his article.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2020, 02:02:16 PM »
Depends how far south.
What if goes below 20k and holds?
I think you would agree that there are many feel this bubble will bust. I have no idea but if it does will that change to proof to false?
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Offline YesThatsMe

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2020, 02:05:17 PM »
What if goes below 20k and holds?
I think you would agree that there are many feel this bubble will bust. I have no idea but if it does will that change to proof to false?

Then yes, because it will ripple into the real economy in a rough way. Banks won't lend and property/products won't trade.

But based on what the Fed and Congress have done so far, this wont happen.

Offline moko

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #13 on: June 19, 2020, 02:39:24 PM »
My 2 cents:

Anyone who had a real business, which had solid fundamentals and was run 100% kosher, will be fine. He got a PPP, got/will get an EIDL, and will get Main Street lending. If he laid off employees, they got basically full income and are ready to come back end of July at the latest.

Interest rates are low, anyone in resi or multifam Real Estate will be fine, his property will only be more valuable now.

Nursing homes were handed very large grants and will have a lot more gov funding after this as well, to make up for higher payroll and less patients. Actually, this crises may have saved the industry.

All medical will do very well.

Retail sucked since early 2010's, don't blame covid. Jewish (specialized) retail is already back to full boom in the tri-state.

Simchas will not change (except only in the very very short term).

Anyone in Amazon, well - thats what happens when you get into someone else business, Bezos calls the shots. It's a risk that is unrelated to Covid. And now online sales will pick up so hang in there, 2021 will be a homer.

And any guys who worked for cash "schwartz" or stam churn here and there: Get a normal job and do things right, because when things go south the gov will now take care.

Proof all the this true - the markets.
your wrong. Depends on the business.
Take a successful caterer. The real money to be made is on big events. Fundraisers, large weddings, corporate events , etc. If a caterers business revolved around such events, those events are over in my locale through mid 2021 at least.
You can't stay afloat that long with reimagining the whole business concept and turning into a takeout store.
Just one example...
Of course you can reinvent your business model but that's hardly called "your business surviving" that's opening a new business.

Offline Kobe Bryant

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #14 on: June 19, 2020, 02:59:03 PM »
https://mishpacha.com/corona-crisis-the-day-after/

Will businesses all need to adapt, or will most snap back in a relatively short time to business as usual?
A very pessimistic prediction for the future of rhe economy.

Offline Lurker

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2020, 03:08:44 PM »
My 2 cents:
....

Entertainment? Concerts and sports will take a long time to get back to normal. Dining? The landscape has already changed and will continue to do so drastically. Travel? Both domestic and international will take a very big hit for a while, and have already. Conventions? After we see the results of the rally tomorrow night, those may be gone for a while.

You're minimizing the impact to business owners, who make up a small portion of Americans. What about employees in industries that are gone? Where are they getting money? Where are they spending less money? What about people who worked for businesses in industries that are more or less ok, but run by older or higher risk people who scale back the businesses to suit their health requirements? Then there are businesses on the periphery of impacted industries. Businesses not tourism related, but reliant on tourists. Businesses reliant on neighboring entertainment venues.

I wouldn't be pinning predictions on Dave "One Bite" Portnoy's stock market.
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Offline Proisrael

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #16 on: June 21, 2020, 03:15:52 AM »
Entertainment? Concerts and sports will take a long time to get back to normal. Dining? The landscape has already changed and will continue to do so drastically. Travel? Both domestic and international will take a very big hit for a while, and have already. Conventions? After we see the results of the rally tomorrow night, those may be gone for a while.

You're minimizing the impact to business owners, who make up a small portion of Americans. What about employees in industries that are gone? Where are they getting money? Where are they spending less money? What about people who worked for businesses in industries that are more or less ok, but run by older or higher risk people who scale back the businesses to suit their health requirements? Then there are businesses on the periphery of impacted industries. Businesses not tourism related, but reliant on tourists. Businesses reliant on neighboring entertainment venues.

I wouldn't be pinning predictions on Dave "One Bite" Portnoy's stock market.

Dining is completely back to normal in Israel and there is no reason to think it wont be in the USA. Simchas are booming now with the same fanciness and 250 people max (even more as they schedule 2 times for different people). Driving around Haifa and the areas around it seems like maybe 5% of business are still shuttered but everyone else is booming. CC spending is already almost back to preCovid transactions and thats without movies and entertainment options open.

Offline CountValentine

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Offline CountValentine

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #18 on: June 21, 2020, 07:45:14 AM »
CC spending is already almost back to preCovid transactions and thats without movies and entertainment options open.
This can be a disaster in the making.
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Offline Lurker

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Re: The Day After
« Reply #19 on: June 21, 2020, 09:06:18 AM »
Dining is completely back to normal in Israel and there is no reason to think it wont be in the USA. Simchas are booming now with the same fanciness and 250 people max (even more as they schedule 2 times for different people). Driving around Haifa and the areas around it seems like maybe 5% of business are still shuttered but everyone else is booming. CC spending is already almost back to preCovid transactions and thats without movies and entertainment options open.

https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-israeli-stores-bounce-back-strongly-from-lockdown-1001331674

I imagine the same will be in the US. I imagine the economic impact for mid to large stores will be a lot less then forecasted.

1) I've seen you use Israel a couple of times to predict how the US economy will fare. Is there any data that suggests that the Israeli economy is an indication for future US performance?

2) Israel has 20k cases and 303 deaths. By comparison, the US announced over 30k new cases on each of the last 2 days, and the lowest announced deaths on any day in the past 3 month was 295. We're not talking apples to apples with Covid impact...

3) For your insistence that the economy is virtually back to normal in Israel, I don't see how that"s possible without the tourists and with a sizable chunk of students and temporary residents not back in the country yet. Additionally, I can't see how Israel would be the only country to to be impacted in their imports and exports of products. I also don't see how a packed restaurant means the business can survive another government shutdown, which is a constant imminent threat.

My point is, there's no data to show that everything is great, other than people on the street seeing activities they associate with pre-Covid times, definitely no confidence that things will even stay the way they are, and most certainly no indication that you can extrapolate Israel's economy onto the US.
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