Author Topic: Dropping Antibody Levels  (Read 29161 times)

Offline chevron

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #160 on: May 20, 2020, 01:27:57 AM »
Thanks, Dan!  Likewise!

Yes, those possibilities, and more (no immunity after the first infection, or the first infection was a false positive, etc.)

My point was only that when studying this experimentally, you can take 1000 people today, selected for having a particular prior experience, infect them in a controlled setting, and get a pretty clear-cut answer in a few weeks.

When you wait for people to become infected naturally, the new cases dribble in, one by one, each one with different prior experiences.  And each one has to be analyzed to figure out exactly what had been going on with them in the first and second infections, and so this will take much longer to get an answer.

Right but as a friend told me, it's possible to have the virus multiple times in mild form, this would likely mean that the person didn't develop immunity to it ?

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #161 on: May 20, 2020, 04:02:37 AM »
Thanks, Dan!  Likewise!

Yes, those possibilities, and more (no immunity after the first infection, or the first infection was a false positive, etc.)

My point was only that when studying this experimentally, you can take 1000 people today, selected for having a particular prior experience, infect them in a controlled setting, and get a pretty clear-cut answer in a few weeks.

When you wait for people to become infected naturally, the new cases dribble in, one by one, each one with different prior experiences.  And each one has to be analyzed to figure out exactly what had been going on with them in the first and second infections, and so this will take much longer to get an answer.
To the best of my knowledge there is no such thing as a false positive PCR test. There may be an error in processing, but the test sees the physical virus so it cannot be false. It may have already been overcome by the immune system and no longer transmissible, and this can only be determined by plaque assay (to quantify plaque forming units) which is how the Korean study reached the conclusion the reinfected patients were not contagious.


Darpa funded research:

https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/risk-coronavirus-reinfection-remains-after-recovery


(If my understanding is correct, over 90% of the general population already has these antibodies, and the specific COVID tests are only detecting an elevated number, so there is less indication B cells have newly developed antibody production capabilities they can memorize)
« Last Edit: May 20, 2020, 04:28:19 AM by PlatinumGuy »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline biobook

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #162 on: May 20, 2020, 01:28:37 PM »
Thanks for this very interesting article! 

It does say that 90% of people have antibodies to coronavirus, but they mean the general class of coronavirus, not  the novel coronavirus that causes covid-19.   

The body fights infections by making antibodies that can neutralize a particular infectious agent, so each antibody is made to neutralize a very specific bacteria or virus. (In rare cases, an antibody may "cross-react" with something else, but we'll ignore that for now.)  So for the 4 different types of coronaviruses they studied, there were 4 different types of antibodies, each with a somewhat different structure.  These coronaviruses have been going around for years and cause typical cold symptoms, especially in children.  They did this study in 2016-2018, and apparently published it now because it might give us an indirect clue about what to expect for the novel coronavirus. 

Of 86 people who had a positive nasal swab test for one of those 4 coronaviruses, 12 had a second positive test for that same  coronavirus within the next year or so, indicating that they were re-infected.  One second positive test occurred just 4 weeks after the first, but most were 9-12 months later. 

So the bad news: This suggests that immunity to a coronavirus may last less than a year, so it's worrying that this might be true for the novel coronavirus, too. 

The more hopeful news:  Only 12 of the 86 (14%) people who got sick were reinfected, so perhaps immunity lasts longer for most people.  And re-infections occurred for only 3 of the 4 coronaviruses they looked at, so perhaps some coronaviruses produce a longer-lasting immune response.  Remember they only looked for about a year, so we don't know how long immunity lasts for that 4th coronavirus they studied.  But it at least raises hope that the novel coronavirus might produce longer-lasting immunity.

The somewhat-good news:  In their records of the cold-symptoms people reported over this time, they found that people who got sick twice had similar symptoms both times.  If they had a mild cold the first time, they had a mild cold the second time.  If they had a severe cold the first time, they had a severe cold the second time.  Interestingly, those who were asymptomatic with the first infection, were asymptomatic with the second infection.  So it's reassuring to hear that the re-infection did not cause worse symptoms the second time around.  And if we extrapolate to the novel coronavirus, it makes us hopeful that those who have a positive virus test but had no symptoms, may really be unlikely to get infected in the future.

Interesting news:  Some families (children and parents) reported mild symptoms, others families had more severe symptoms.  The researchers think severity of disease depends on some unknown genetic factors.

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #163 on: May 20, 2020, 01:44:41 PM »
Hit it out of the ballpark again!

@biobook What is your educational/work background?

Offline Iz

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #164 on: May 20, 2020, 02:33:39 PM »
And the great news: nobody will die twice.

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #165 on: May 20, 2020, 02:36:46 PM »
And the great news: nobody will die twice.
Unless cats can get it again
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Offline Mootkim

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #166 on: May 20, 2020, 02:41:34 PM »
Not to bring any proof from the New York Department of Health, however, in the Nursing Home industry, Cuomo has mandated all employees in New York to be tested twice a week. At first the FAQ stated that an employee who had previously had a positive test and/or has a positive antibody test would be exempt from continuing to take the twice weekly test. However, yesterday they completely reversed this stating that even with positive antibody test they are still required to take twice weekly tests "until more is learned about immunity following Covid-19". Don't know if this is still part of their covering up the mistakes they made with regards to the nursing homes since March or if they are seeing some data in regards to the antibodies.

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #167 on: May 20, 2020, 02:42:43 PM »
Not to bring any proof from the New York Department of Health, however, in the Nursing Home industry, Cuomo has mandated all employees in New York to be tested twice a week. At first the FAQ stated that an employee who had previously had a positive test and/or has a positive antibody test would be exempt from continuing to take the twice weekly test. However, yesterday they completely reversed this stating that even with positive antibody test they are still required to take twice weekly tests "until more is learned about immunity following Covid-19". Don't know if this is still part of their covering up the mistakes they made with regards to the nursing homes since March or if they are seeing some data in regards to the antibodies.
Interesting, could be for 'just in case' or for research though.
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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #168 on: May 20, 2020, 02:45:22 PM »
Thanks @biobook!! Like everyone else here, I find your posts very clear and very informative. I'm curious as to how some of this translates to the novel coronavirus, with respect to the observed differences between our virus and most coronaviruses.

Only 12 of the 86 (14%) people who got sick were reinfected, so perhaps immunity lasts longer for most people.

The working theory, IINM, has been that Covid is more contagious than the average coronavirus. Are the 12 recurrences due to immunity of the other 85%, or lack of repeated exposure? Additionally, the study says that reinfection was most common in children. I'm curious to know if that would hold true here, and what the ramifications would be for schools, especially since, at least at one point, children were (or are?) viewed as dangerous silent spreaders. (I'm not sure if this still holds true.)

In their records of the cold-symptoms people reported over this time, they found that people who got sick twice had similar symptoms both times. 

The images of lungs with Covid have shown extensive damage, even for those with very mild symptoms. There have also been reports of the virus attacking other organs, on an individual basis. With the average coronavirus, is there documented damage to any internal organs? If yes, how does a second attack on those same organs not cause cumulative damage? If not, is it possible that our virus may prove to hit harder during a second infection due to the attacked organ being weakened by the first infection?
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Offline biobook

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #170 on: May 20, 2020, 11:19:37 PM »

@biobook What is your educational/work background?
I have been educated, and I have worked!  But not in immunology or epidemiology or medicine.  I just read a lot, including here at DD, and am learning all this together with everyone else.

Not to bring any proof from the New York Department of Health, however, in the Nursing Home industry, Cuomo has mandated all employees in New York to be tested twice a week. At first the FAQ stated that an employee who had previously had a positive test and/or has a positive antibody test would be exempt from continuing to take the twice weekly test. However, yesterday they completely reversed this stating that even with positive antibody test they are still required to take twice weekly tests "until more is learned about immunity following Covid-19". Don't know if this is still part of their covering up the mistakes they made with regards to the nursing homes since March or if they are seeing some data in regards to the antibodies.
If they're trying to "cover up", they're not doing a terribly good job, because you've found out about it!  No, it seems more likely that they originally thought that a positive antibody test meant the employee would have long-term immunity, and now they're not so sure, so want to test more frequently to make sure that the antibody levels remain high.  Or maybe they're concerned about false positive tests.


The working theory, IINM, has been that Covid is more contagious than the average coronavirus. Are the 12 recurrences due to immunity of the other 85%, or lack of repeated exposure? Additionally, the study says that reinfection was most common in children. I'm curious to know if that would hold true here, and what the ramifications would be for schools, especially since, at least at one point, children were (or are?) viewed as dangerous silent spreaders. (I'm not sure if this still holds true.)
First, I should mention that they started studying 191 people, and only 86 of those had any positive test at all during the year.  So more than half of the people were never infected at all during the year.  Not surprising, since we all know that when "some cold is going around" not every single person catches it.  But we can't tell if it was because nobody in their vicinity had the virus, or if they were just better at washing hands and keeping hands away from their nose.  And the same applies to the question of why the 85% had virus in their nose the first time, but never tested positive again during the year.  Maybe they weren't re-exposed to the virus, or maybe they managed to wash hands and keep it out of their nose.   

We wouldn't say that 85% were immune, because that would imply that they were infected with the virus but didn't get sick, while these 85% weren't shown to be infected a second time, so we don't know if they were immune or not. This study wasn't trying to figure out how long immunity might last, but rather how short it might be.  So all they can really conclude is that in some people, immunity to these coronaviruses may last just a few months.

Re: children, yes, 9 of the 12 who were re-infected were children.  Again, not surprising, since children are so much more likely to stick their fingers in their nose and to develop colds.  The novel coronavirus affects adults and children differently, so I don't think we can conclude anything at this point.   


The images of lungs with Covid have shown extensive damage, even for those with very mild symptoms. There have also been reports of the virus attacking other organs, on an individual basis. With the average coronavirus, is there documented damage to any internal organs? If yes, how does a second attack on those same organs not cause cumulative damage? If not, is it possible that our virus may prove to hit harder during a second infection due to the attacked organ being weakened by the first infection?
From this article, it sounds like these 4 coronaviruses generally just cause respiratory symptoms, not other internal damage.

If the novel coronavirus acts like these 4, we would expect a second infection to be as bad as the first, but not worse.  But the novel coronavirus is different in so many ways, so this expectation is very iffy. 

If we draw any conclusions relevant to our current situation, it would be that those who've recovered from a bout of covid-19 should not think that they're immune for life, but should be taking the same precautions as those who've never been infected, to try to avoid a second infection.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #171 on: May 21, 2020, 03:24:04 AM »
Interesting news:  Some families (children and parents) reported mild symptoms, others families had more severe symptoms.  The researchers think severity of disease depends on some unknown genetic factors.
We should make a poll about this. I have a similar feeling from friends that had it.
If they're trying to "cover up", they're not doing a terribly good job, because you've found out about it!  No, it seems more likely that they originally thought that a positive antibody test meant the employee would have long-term immunity, and now they're not so sure, so want to test more frequently to make sure that the antibody levels remain high.  Or maybe they're concerned about false positive tests.
I doubt anybody really gave it so much thought, it's just better safe than sorry. But there is a public health policy concern with exempting people with positive antibody test, as it provides a perverse incentive for people to dangerously infect themselves.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Mootkim

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #172 on: May 21, 2020, 04:39:30 PM »

If they're trying to "cover up", they're not doing a terribly good job, because you've found out about it!  No, it seems more likely that they originally thought that a positive antibody test meant the employee would have long-term immunity, and now they're not so sure, so want to test more frequently to make sure that the antibody levels remain high.  Or maybe they're concerned about false positive tests.

They're not doing frequent AB tests though. They are mandating that every employee take a nasal swab twice a week to test for active Covid. Even someone who had it in the past and has had numerous negatives after they had it and has AB is still required to do the nasal swab.

And by cover up I meant that they are trying to fix the issues that they caused with possibly being responsible for hundreds of nursing home deaths. In March they required all NH's to accept patients from the hospitals even if they had active Covid. NH's were liable to fines and disciplinary action if they did not comply. This most definitely caused hundreds of deaths and outbreaks in NH's. The reason they mandated this was so that hospitals do not get overwhelmed. About 2 months later in one of his press conferences, Cuomo was asked about this and said that he was unaware of the rule. since then he has been trying to fix the mistakes by mandating many other measures (including not allowing NH's to accept Covid patients until they test negative).

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #173 on: May 24, 2020, 09:49:36 AM »
They're not doing frequent AB tests though. They are mandating that every employee take a nasal swab twice a week to test for active Covid. Even someone who had it in the past and has had numerous negatives after they had it and has AB is still required to do the nasal swab.

And by cover up I meant that they are trying to fix the issues that they caused with possibly being responsible for hundreds of nursing home deaths. In March they required all NH's to accept patients from the hospitals even if they had active Covid. NH's were liable to fines and disciplinary action if they did not comply. This most definitely caused hundreds of deaths and outbreaks in NH's. The reason they mandated this was so that hospitals do not get overwhelmed. About 2 months later in one of his press conferences, Cuomo was asked about this and said that he was unaware of the rule. since then he has been trying to fix the mistakes by mandating many other measures (including not allowing NH's to accept Covid patients until they test negative).
he clearly was aware. He had defended it in earlier press conferences. He wasnít counting nursing home deaths until April 17.
Once he started to count nursing home deaths he conveniently forgot about his directive. But He still defended it for a few weeks until reversing it.
Personally I donít give much weight to his decisions regarding antibody testing. I donít think his decision is based on anything. After all itís not his fault that 26k people died. Its the Wall Street journal fault for not warning him in time


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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #174 on: May 25, 2020, 01:28:33 AM »
The fearmongering on this thread is unfreakinbelivable.
You are all going to die. Hopefully after 120 or more years.
A lot of lives would have been saved if not for the fearmongering.
Yes, Dr. D..... and others, you have Yiddish blood on your hands.

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #175 on: May 25, 2020, 01:35:45 AM »
The fearmongering on this thread is unfreakinbelivable.
You are all going to die. Hopefully after 120 or more years.
A lot of lives would have been saved if not for the fearmongering.
Yes, Dr. D..... and others, you have Yiddish blood on your hands.
Yup, ignorance is bliss. We shouldn't bother teaching people how to read either.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #176 on: May 25, 2020, 02:10:02 AM »
The fearmongering on this thread is unfreakinbelivable.
You are all going to die. Hopefully after 120 or more years.
A lot of lives would have been saved if not for the fearmongering.
Yes, Dr. D..... and others, you have Yiddish blood on your hands.
You got it. Heís the one.
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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #177 on: May 25, 2020, 07:40:34 AM »
The fearmongering on this thread is unfreakinbelivable.
You are all going to die. Hopefully after 120 or more years.
A lot of lives would have been saved if not for the fearmongering.
Yes, Dr. D..... and others, you have Yiddish blood on your hands.
And I thought I've seen everything...
Just wow.

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #178 on: May 25, 2020, 08:22:47 AM »
The fearmongering on this thread is unfreakinbelivable.
You are all going to die. Hopefully after 120 or more years.
A lot of lives would have been saved if not for the fearmongering.

Definitely is some truth to this, but Blood on their hands is a bit much.
On the other hand, People would not have listened if not for fear.
Just another reason why Daas Torah should be making the call and not Doctors. Itís not a simple decision how strict restrictions should be and what should and shouldnít be said

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Re: Dropping Antibody Levels
« Reply #179 on: May 25, 2020, 11:44:54 AM »
Definitely is some truth to this, but Blood on their hands is a bit much.
On the other hand, People would not have listened if not for fear.
Just another reason why Daas Torah should be making the call and not Doctors. Itís not a simple decision how strict restrictions should be and what should and shouldnít be said
Is it a bit much to say there is blood on the hands of people who acted recklessly in defiance of doctors and Rabbanim and directly caused some deaths?
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