Author Topic: "The darkest winter in modern history"  (Read 1095 times)

Offline Ergel

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"The darkest winter in modern history"
« on: May 15, 2020, 08:13:32 AM »
Is WW2 included in modern history?

I just hate the hyperbole. It makes people ignore the risk. Just be honest with people. People are smart enough to listen to real data
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Offline Ergel

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Re: "The darkest winter in modern history"
« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2020, 03:29:41 PM »
Having said the above, I think we need to look back at 1918 for a historical basis. There were basically 3 waves, Spring 1918, Fall 1918 and Spring 1919 (though it reverberated through 1920, that was the major waves). The second wave was by far the most deadly (in comparison to the second wave, the first wave was child's play). I have major fear that this will play out here as well. I guess the reason to believe why it won't, is there isn't any indication that this virus is seasonal. Not sure what to think.

Secondly, I heard on a podcast that a study was done of 120 army bases during 1918, 99 of them had rules around social distancing and 21 didn't. No marked difference in outcome was observed between the 2 groups. However, upon further research, it was found that most of the 99 bases had poor enforcement of distancing. Only the bases which had strict enforcement actually had better outcomes, but they were so few that they were diluted by the overwhelming majority that had lax (or no enforcement). Has anyone seen such a study?
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Offline aygart

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Re: "The darkest winter in modern history"
« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2020, 03:52:01 PM »
there isn't any indication that this virus is seasonal.
How would we possibly have any indication one way or the other about this?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Ergel

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Re: "The darkest winter in modern history"
« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2020, 04:04:29 PM »
How would we possibly have any indication one way or the other about this?
You do know that there are two hemispheres, right?
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Offline aygart

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Re: "The darkest winter in modern history"
« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2020, 04:09:06 PM »
You do know that there are two hemispheres, right?
Which one went through a seasonal cycle since Jan?
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Offline Lurker

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Re: "The darkest winter in modern history"
« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2020, 04:09:16 PM »
You do know that there are two hemispheres, right?

Hasn't been a full year yet. You'd have to wait until October/November to find that out.
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Offline Ergel

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Re: "The darkest winter in modern history"
« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2020, 04:10:13 PM »
Which one went through a seasonal cycle since Jan?
So the Southern Hemisphere is susceptible during summer and the Nothern during winter?
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Offline aygart

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Re: "The darkest winter in modern history"
« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2020, 04:12:11 PM »
So the Southern Hemisphere is susceptible during summer and the Nothern during winter?
What happened there during the winter?
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Offline Proisrael

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Re: "The darkest winter in modern history"
« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2020, 01:53:16 AM »
What happened there during the winter?

Winter is starting there now...and they are opening up again (Australia/New Zealand) which would contradict the theory, though South Africa is having a spike now as are some South America countries.

Offline aygart

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Re: "The darkest winter in modern history"
« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2020, 07:37:12 AM »
Winter is starting there now...and they are opening up again (Australia/New Zealand) which would contradict the theory, though South Africa is having a spike now as are some South America countries.
What were the results of their opening up?
Feelings don't care about your facts