Having said the above, I think we need to look back at 1918 for a historical basis. There were basically 3 waves, Spring 1918, Fall 1918 and Spring 1919 (though it reverberated through 1920, that was the major waves). The second wave was by far the most deadly (in comparison to the second wave, the first wave was child's play). I have major fear that this will play out here as well. I guess the reason to believe why it won't, is there isn't any indication that this virus is seasonal. Not sure what to think.
Secondly, I heard on a podcast that a study was done of 120 army bases during 1918, 99 of them had rules around social distancing and 21 didn't. No marked difference in outcome was observed between the 2 groups. However, upon further research, it was found that most of the 99 bases had poor enforcement of distancing. Only the bases which had strict enforcement actually had better outcomes, but they were so few that they were diluted by the overwhelming majority that had lax (or no enforcement). Has anyone seen such a study?
