The current state of COVID-19 in Israel

[Dan]

Israel was very close to being NZ. They may have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by reopening a bit too early, C"V.

[yaakov35]

I love your agenda. At least you don't try hiding it.


News flash: The world is NOT out to get the chareidim.

Agenda? I love how everyone in israel said Israel is the only one who knows what they are doing. Now that cases are popping up its an agenda. Fact is, whatever they were trying to do is not working.

[B.D.Da'ehu]

!!!!


https://mobile.kikar.co.il/abroad/article/364952

Did you read that article? It says after receiving 5 fines for not adhering to MoH directives they will shut down that shul (or hall) for 48 hours.

[yaakov35]

Did you read that article? It says after receiving 5 fines for not adhering to MoH directives they will shut down that shul (or hall) for 48 hours.

Its a warning in order for them not to get shut down. Otherwise they will be

[PlatinumGuy]

Guys, don't forget the forums have the option to block members.

Israel was very close to being NZ. They may have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by reopening a bit too early, C"V.

I don't think they ever really stood a chance. The government institution incompetence is deep rooted. Israel evolved from a myriad of Zionistic organizations that became part of quickly formed government (KKL, Jewish Agency, etc). There is a lot of human talent (& hashgacha) that shows itself in spits and sprouts (the Air Force being a notable example), but for the entire government beaurcarcy to consistently enforce a strict policy is hopeless.

That's before you even get to the dynamics of a large families in unbearably small dwellings and a historically oppressed society that takes pride in disobedience.

The good news in Israel is that they stopped it early enough and they do have tools to slow it down dramatically, so it's unlikely to balloon out of control, we will just see a constant lockdown quenching and reopening.

Israel is like a broken comb. You can weed out 90% of the lice, but you'll never get to 100%.

[yaakov35]

Israel was very close to being NZ. They may have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by reopening a bit too early, C"V.

Israel has so many citizens that live all over the world, so even after they shut down there were planes full of Israelis coming in every few days... once nz shut down they barely had anyone going in. Also the countless meshulachim that fly back and forth to israel... gonna be very hard to get to 0 there.

[Baglach]

Israel was very close to being NZ. They may have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by reopening a bit too early, C"V.

Time will tell if NZ won't get a 2nd vawe unless they just plan on borders shut till a vaccine comes. The feeling in Israel now is that Netanyahu has no end game. So he will overcome this wave (hopefully) and what then?

[Dan]

Israel has so many citizens that live all over the world, so even after they shut down there were planes full of Israelis coming in every few days... once nz shut down they barely had anyone going in. Also the countless meshulachim that fly back and forth to israel... gonna be very hard to get to 0 there.

That's why they had quarantine hotels. What's the problem?

[Lurker]

Time will tell if NZ won't get a 2nd vawe unless they just plan on borders shut till a vaccine comes. The feeling in Israel now is that Netanyahu has no end game. So he will overcome this wave (hopefully) and what then?

People everywhere feel that their elected officials have no endgame. Why does that make it ok to get exasperated and abandon all rational thought?

[Afrages6]

Time will tell if NZ won't get a 2nd vawe unless they just plan on borders shut till a vaccine comes. The feeling in Israel now is that Netanyahu has no end game. So he will overcome this wave (hopefully) and what then?

They will stay locked down until there’s a vaccine. Much better then having to stop and start the economy every 6 weeks.

[PlatinumGuy]

Most countries can survive for a very long time without tourists. The NZ economy is one of the best performing in the world. 5-10% hit from lack of tourism is much better than pandemonium created by a pandemic.

As much as we don't want to believe it, NZ & Israel are likely to stay close for a very long time.   

They will stay locked down until there’s a vaccine. Much better then having to stop and start the economy every 6 weeks.

You're right in concept, but technically NZ is not locked down. It's completely open with zero restrictions. Only the borders are closed to outsiders.

[ExGingi]

Even just to compare to NY, there are still more daily new cases in NY (200-300 daily) vs. new cases in Israel. To think that NY is in better shape than Israel at this point is laughable.

Not sure what you were thinking when you wrote that. How are you comparing absolute numbers rather than on a per 100,000 residents basis?

NY new cases have been trending down for weeks (and then we had that magical trick Cuomo pulled on June 6th or 7th with the hospital beds), and COVID-19 deaths have been non-existent for a couple of weeks (as per Cuomo, medical experts are telling him that the numbers reported are in the range of a statistical error, and could be people that died from other causes and were just recorded as having died from COVID-19).

I don't know what the solution for Israel is, nor for the rest of the world. I am quite confident that places that were hit hard like the Jewish neighborhoods of Brooklyn are in a much better position now to fully reopen.

Look at this (click on tweet for more info)

A useful way to think about transmission is that stabilizing spread requires a ~ 63% reduction (1-1/R0) in "susceptible" contacts. Until we have a vaccine or therapeutics, that requires either 63% immunity, or reduction of contacts and shared infective airspace w/the same effect. https://t.co/j8xB10kwPc

— John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (@hussmanjp) June 23, 2020

Certain Jewish neighborhoods are there now!!!!  And those neighborhoods are arguably in better shape now than NZ is, as they have a lower likelihood of a spread with a new introduction (not counting population density, which is a huge differentiator in favor of NZ over Israel) than NZ is.

[PlatinumGuy]

I actually think the number of cases proportional to total population has very little value.
If a terrorist shoots 100 people, does it matter what their percentage of the population is? Israel never had widespread infection. The critical number there is the absolute count. It’s spread (or lack thereof) from 200/day last week to 500/day today has the same significance if the population is 10m or 100m. 

[Afrages6]

You're right in concept, but technically NZ is not locked down. It's completely open with zero restrictions. Only the borders are closed to outsiders.

That’s what I meant.

[Ergel]

Not sure what you were thinking when you wrote that. How are you comparing absolute numbers rather than on a per 100,000 residents basis?

Israel's population is similar in size to NYC, is it not?

[Ergel]

Israel was very close to being NZ. They may have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by reopening a bit too early, C"V.

NZ had 17 days of 0(!) infections before they opened up. Israel was AT LEAST a month a way from that (if they would ever have gotten there)

[Proisrael]

Israels new cases are almost all asymptomatic or extremely light. There was a slight uptick in ventilators and severe cases but they have come down over the past few days. 

Regardless the country is running like normal with even trains and theaters reopening again. If people are smart enough to keep their masks on the numbers will slow. Most of the spread has been from the reopening of schools. They are closing next week for summer vacation. I would expect the numbers to peak mid next week and then fall fast back to under 200.

[moish]

Israel was very close to being NZ. They may have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by reopening a bit too early, C"V.

No, it was a mirage. When the new cases were in the teens it was merely a result of very restrictive testing criteria.

[ExGingi]

I actually think the number of cases proportional to total population has very little value.
If a terrorist shoots 100 people, does it matter what their percentage of the population is? Israel never had widespread infection. The critical number there is the absolute count. It’s spread (or lack thereof) from 200/day last week to 500/day today has the same significance if the population is 10m or 100m.

Israeli ministry of health doesn't seem to think so. When publishing the numbers for אלעד and טבריה they also put the ratio per 100k there.

[S209]

Israels new cases are almost all asymptomatic or extremely light or presymptomatic. There was a slight uptick in ventilators and severe cases but they have come down over the past few days. 

Regardless the country is running like normal with even trains and theaters reopening again. If people are smart enough to keep their masks on the numbers will slow. Most of the spread has been from the reopening of schools. They are closing next week for summer vacation. I would expect the numbers to peak mid next week and then fall fast back to under 200.

FTFY

I hope you’re right, and I hope people stay smart, wear masks, and follow rules. I also hope everyone especially more vulnerable people are encouraged to take extra precautions. If they do then there is some risk that will have to be accepted.