Author Topic: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel  (Read 141275 times)

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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2360 on: July 12, 2021, 07:37:27 PM »
Any reason why Israel isn't first testing people for antibodies before determining whether to give a third shot
(I understand lack of antibodies doesn't indicate waning immunity, but presence of antibodies should indicate continued immunity, shouldn't it?)

Any reason you asking questions about political decisions in regards to the most politicized virus in the history of mankind? And about Israel of all places?
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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2361 on: July 12, 2021, 07:42:09 PM »
Any reason why Israel isn't first testing people for antibodies before determining whether to give a third shot
(I understand lack of antibodies doesn't indicate waning immunity, but presence of antibodies should indicate continued immunity, shouldn't it?)
Cheaper/faster to give another shot?
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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2362 on: July 12, 2021, 07:59:23 PM »
Any reason why Israel isn't first testing people for antibodies before determining whether to give a third shot
(I understand lack of antibodies doesn't indicate waning immunity, but presence of antibodies should indicate continued immunity, shouldn't it?)

IIUC, you have antibodies after the first shot. The second shot is to increase the amount of antibodies and for longevity. If this is correct, then antibodies tests before a third booster would be pointless, because the third shot is for the same reasons as the second shot.
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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2363 on: July 12, 2021, 07:59:39 PM »
Another question I had was that I understood that the people who didn't have immunity after 2 shots is because their body doesn't produce antibodies, so why would a 3rd shot help? Unless it produces very little and the 3rd is enough to get it over the hump?

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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2364 on: July 12, 2021, 08:05:04 PM »
Another question I had was that I understood that the people who didn't have immunity after 2 shots is because their body doesn't produce antibodies, so why would a 3rd shot help? Unless it produces very little and the 3rd is enough to get it over the hump?

I don't know the answer, but in theory, it may be more to try to lessen the severity of a potential infection, rather than to prevent it completely.
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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2365 on: July 12, 2021, 08:11:33 PM »
Another question I had was that I understood that the people who didn't have immunity after 2 shots is because their body doesn't produce antibodies, so why would a 3rd shot help? Unless it produces very little and the 3rd is enough to get it over the hump?
More likely to get them a little higher up the hill.
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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2366 on: July 12, 2021, 08:46:50 PM »
Another question I had was that I understood that the people who didn't have immunity after 2 shots is because their body doesn't produce antibodies, so why would a 3rd shot help? Unless it produces very little and the 3rd is enough to get it over the hump?
Could be they have a weaker immune response, produce fewer antibodies with each shot, so a 3rd, as avromie7 says gets them "higher up the hill". 
Also could be that they make the same amount of antibodies initially, but that the antibodies or the cells producing them degenerate more quickly than in most people, so they lose that immunity sooner. 
Or could be a combination of these.

"interim data from the company’s trial of its booster shot showing a third dose stimulates a much stronger antibody response that is five to 10 times the level seen after the second dose of its vaccine."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/israel-vaccine-pfizer-booster/2021/07/12/ce5ceed4-e30e-11eb-88c5-4fd6382c47cb_story.html

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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2367 on: July 12, 2021, 08:54:59 PM »
Could be they have a weaker immune response, produce fewer antibodies with each shot, so a 3rd, as avromie7 says gets them "higher up the hill". 
Also could be that they make the same amount of antibodies initially, but that the antibodies or the cells producing them degenerate more quickly than in most people, so they lose that immunity sooner. 
Or could be a combination of these.

"interim data from the company’s trial of its booster shot showing a third dose stimulates a much stronger antibody response that is five to 10 times the level seen after the second dose of its vaccine."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/israel-vaccine-pfizer-booster/2021/07/12/ce5ceed4-e30e-11eb-88c5-4fd6382c47cb_story.html
I wonder how much of the higher response is simply from waiting. We saw evidence that waiting significantly longer than 3-4 weeks leads to a much higher antibody count.
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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2368 on: July 12, 2021, 09:17:15 PM »
I wonder how much of the higher response is simply from waiting. We saw evidence that waiting significantly longer than 3-4 weeks leads to a much higher antibody count.
You're suggesting that the third dose stimulates such a strong response because it's given 6 months after the first, and perhaps the immune system has matured or become more sensitive in the interim?  Could be.  But if they had skipped that second dose at 3-4 weeks then people would have had low immunity during that 6 month interval, so wasn't logical to wait then.

Ideally, they would have taken 10 years to work out the perfect combination of dose and timing to give the vaccine to get the optimal response.  But with the loss of 500,000 people per year, a good-enough vaccine was preferable to a perfect one.

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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2369 on: July 12, 2021, 09:29:06 PM »
You're suggesting that the third dose stimulates such a strong response because it's given 6 months after the first, and perhaps the immune system has matured or become more sensitive in the interim?  Could be.  But if they had skipped that second dose at 3-4 weeks then people would have had low immunity during that 6 month interval, so wasn't logical to wait then.

Ideally, they would have taken 10 years to work out the perfect combination of dose and timing to give the vaccine to get the optimal response.  But with the loss of 500,000 people per year, a good-enough vaccine was preferable to a perfect one.

I don't think that's what he meant. I think he's suggesting that it takes time for the antibodies count to rise, as evidenced by higher counts 3-4 weeks post injection than immediately after the shot, and that the elevated counts after the 3rd shot are really from giving the first 2 shots time to reach their full potential.
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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2370 on: July 12, 2021, 09:30:53 PM »
Just wondering: Are any of you (active participants) a scientist or a medical doctor by training?

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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2371 on: July 12, 2021, 09:31:57 PM »
You're suggesting that the third dose stimulates such a strong response because it's given 6 months after the first, and perhaps the immune system has matured or become more sensitive in the interim?  Could be.  But if they had skipped that second dose at 3-4 weeks then people would have had low immunity during that 6 month interval, so wasn't logical to wait then.
Yes. I agree that especially these people who are higher risk should not wait 6 months for a second dose.
I don't think that's what he meant. I think he's suggesting that it takes time for the antibodies count to rise, as evidenced by higher counts 3-4 weeks post injection than immediately after the shot, and that the elevated counts after the 3rd shot are really from giving the first 2 shots time to reach their full potential.
This is not what I was saying.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2372 on: July 12, 2021, 09:33:47 PM »
This is not what I was saying.

My bad.

Just wondering: Are any of you (active participants) a scientist or a medical doctor by training?

Can't speak for anyone else, but I'm not.
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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2373 on: July 12, 2021, 09:36:10 PM »
I don't think that's what he meant. I think he's suggesting that it takes time for the antibodies count to rise, as evidenced by higher counts 3-4 weeks post injection than immediately after the shot, and that the elevated counts after the 3rd shot are really from giving the first 2 shots time to reach their full potential.
Okay, that could be too.  :)  But the concern now is with the elderly and immunocompromised, who seem to have more breakthrough cases a few months after the shots, which suggests that their immune response wasn't at "full potential".

That WaPo article (above) refers to "interim data from the company’s trial of its booster shot", which sounds like unpublished data, so it's not clear whether they were testing this booster on random people, or specifically on those groups with higher risk of breakthrough infections.

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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2374 on: July 12, 2021, 09:36:54 PM »
Yes. I agree that especially these people who are higher risk should not wait 6 months for a second dose.

You're theorizing that the initial 2 shots are too close together? If you're right, Canada is going to come out of this looking like geniuses.
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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2375 on: July 12, 2021, 09:39:48 PM »
Okay, that could be too.  :)  But the concern now is with the elderly and immunocompromised, who seem to have more breakthrough cases a few months after the shots, which suggests that their immune response wasn't at "full potential".

That WaPo article (above) refers to "interim data from the company’s trial of its booster shot", which sounds like unpublished data, so it's not clear whether they were testing this booster on random people, or specifically on those groups with higher risk of breakthrough infections.

Are the elderly at higher risk for breakthrough infections, or just more severe illness from those breakthrough infections?
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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2376 on: July 12, 2021, 09:43:29 PM »
Are the elderly at higher risk for breakthrough infections, or just more severe illness from those breakthrough infections?
Good question.  The CDC initially required reports of breakthrough infections, but they stopped that in April, I think.  IIRC, those WERE mostly among the elderly, but I'll look it up again.  They are still recording severe illness (ie, hospitalizations and deaths), and those were higher among elderly.  I'll go find the latest numbers.

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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2377 on: July 12, 2021, 09:46:16 PM »
Good question.  The CDC initially required reports of breakthrough infections, but they stopped that in April, I think.  IIRC, those WERE mostly among the elderly, but I'll look it up again.  They are still recording severe illness (ie, hospitalizations and deaths), and those were higher among elderly.  I'll go find the latest numbers.

I wonder how accurate those numbers are. If breakthrough cases are more likely to be asymptomatic among younger demographics, it's possible that those infections were never caught or recorded, skewing the data towards those who are more likely to see symptoms and get tested.
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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2378 on: July 12, 2021, 09:59:14 PM »
I wonder how accurate those numbers are. If breakthrough cases are more likely to be asymptomatic among younger demographics, it's possible that those infections were never caught or recorded, skewing the data towards those who are more likely to see symptoms and get tested.
Yes, that's an important point, and they're aware of that.  They do mention somewhere that they know that these numbers underestimate the true infection rate, and that may be why they stopped recording infections and concentrated on the more accurate measurements of hospitalizations and deaths.  Many of these were not actually hospitalized FOR covid, but for something else, and they got tested in hospital, so this did catch some asymptomatic infections. 

Here's their latest data
Hospitalized or fatal vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC as of July 6, 2021:
5186 cases, 75% are >65 years old.
988 deaths, though 255 were not considered deaths due to covid.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

All breakthrough infections reported Jan 1- April 30:
10,262 cases, median age was 58 years.
At that earlier time, 160 patients had died, and their median age was 82.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm

I had started recording the early breakthrough cases, but the CDC seemed to be doing a better job, so I stopped.
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Re: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #2379 on: July 12, 2021, 10:06:40 PM »
Just wondering: Are any of you (active participants) a scientist or a medical doctor by training?
I have some training in biology, but not this area.  All the immunology I know comes from a single introductory biology course, and not only have I forgotten much of what I learned at that time, but so much more has been discovered since then. So I'd say I'm an amateur scientist.