The current state of COVID-19 in Israel

[Kobe Bryant]

The government is reportedly preparing itself to be able to handle 2,400 serious coronavirus cases within a month.

According to Ynet, ministers discussed a plan yesterday to hire more doctors, nurses and other hospital personnel in order to prepare for a sharp rise in serious hospitalized COVID cases. Currently, 694 people in Israel with COVID are hospitalized and 400 are in serious condition.

The report indicates that the government believes that by the end of August, there could be 2,400 people hospitalized and 1,200 in serious condition, and by the 10th of September, those figures could jump to 4,800 in hospital and 2,400 serious.

[Lurker]

The government is reportedly preparing itself to be able to handle 2,400 serious coronavirus cases within a month.

According to Ynet, ministers discussed a plan yesterday to hire more doctors, nurses and other hospital personnel in order to prepare for a sharp rise in serious hospitalized COVID cases. Currently, 694 people in Israel with COVID are hospitalized and 400 are in serious condition.

The report indicates that the government believes that by the end of August, there could be 2,400 people hospitalized and 1,200 in serious condition, and by the 10th of September, those figures could jump to 4,800 in hospital and 2,400 serious.

Why do they always assume that the waves will continue indefinitely? I don't understand why they keep putting out these numbers.

[yzj]

The government is reportedly preparing itself to be able to handle 2,400 serious coronavirus cases within a month.

According to Ynet, ministers discussed a plan yesterday to hire more doctors, nurses and other hospital personnel in order to prepare for a sharp rise in serious hospitalized COVID cases. Currently, 694 people in Israel with COVID are hospitalized and 400 are in serious condition.

The report indicates that the government believes that by the end of August, there could be 2,400 people hospitalized and 1,200 in serious condition, and by the 10th of September, those figures could jump to 4,800 in hospital and 2,400 serious.

Looks like in around three years at the current pace every single citizen of Israel will be hospitalized....

[AsherO]

Why do they always assume that the waves will continue indefinitely? I don't understand why they keep putting out these numbers.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best?

If it does go this way, they prefer to be prepared. Having adequate beds, staff, equipment, and supplies could mean the difference between life and death for some patients, and the reason why avoiding overrun hospitals is so important.

[Lurker]

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best?

If it does go this way, they prefer to be prepared. Having adequate beds, staff, equipment, and supplies could mean the difference between life and death for some patients, and the reason why avoiding overrun hospitals is so important.

I have no problem with that. But why publicize the worst case scenarios and cause panic? Some things should stay internal.

[biobook]

I have no problem with that. But why publicize the worst case scenarios and cause panic? Some things should stay internal.

What kind of panic would you expect it to cause?  Wouldn't it be more likely that the knowledge would cause people to take extra care?

[Euclid]

Wouldn't it be more likely that the knowledge would cause people to take extra care?

I dont think so because of:

1. Boy who cried wolf
2. Erosion of trust in public health officials, cc @Yehuda57
3. Fatalism

[biobook]

I dont think so because of:

1. Boy who cried wolf
2. Erosion of trust in public health officials, cc @Yehuda57
3. Fatalism

1. When there really are wolves in the vicinity, we post lookouts who are ready to ride and spread the alarm
2. Erosion of trust happens when the situation is bad and leaders are asked Why were you unable to foresee this?  Showing foresight is good.
3. That's a problem of some individuals.  Should everyone be kept in the dark to protect those few people? 
Perhaps the message needs to be clarified, but I don't see why you'd want to suppress it.

[AsherO]

I have no problem with that. But why publicize the worst case scenarios and cause panic? Some things should stay internal.

Worst case scenario is overrun hospitals. This means we’re taking precautions, nobody is sure it’ll be needed, everyone hopes it won’t.

[Lurker]

What kind of panic would you expect it to cause?  Wouldn't it be more likely that the knowledge would cause people to take extra care?

Pretty much what @Euclid said. We can project every scenario and try to prepare for all of them, but when the worst case scenario gets publicized and it doesn't come to be (it rarely does), people stop listening. It also causes them to downplay the severity, because, "look, it didn't happen."

In addition to the 3 reasons he listed, there's also the issue of causing panic and despondency among those who take Covid too seriously (yes, there is such a thing). Public officials need to protect the public, and inform them of what could happen, but it needs to be done responsibly and in the most effective way possible. IMO, publicizing worst case scenarios aren't responsible or effective.

[biobook]

Pretty much what @Euclid said. We can project every scenario and try to prepare for all of them, but when the worst case scenario gets publicized and it doesn't come to be (it rarely does), people stop listening. It also causes them to downplay the severity, because, "look, it didn't happen."

In addition to the 3 reasons he listed, there's also the issue of causing panic and despondency among those who take Covid too seriously (yes, there is such a thing). Public officials need to protect the public, and inform them of what could happen, but it needs to be done responsibly and in the most effective way possible. IMO, publicizing worst case scenarios aren't responsible or effective.

I'm not convinced.  I want to know the worst case scenario, so that I can plan.   And it reassures me to know that those in charge are considering those possibilities. 

I get that it causes some to disregard further warnings when the worst case doesn't materialize.  We see that all the time with hurricane warnings, where some say They always try to scare us, this time we're not leaving.  Most of us wouldn't want the weather forecasters to stop the hurricane warnings just because some people will stop paying attention. 

If some people have trouble dealing with the message, we need to help them cope, but not at the cost of cancelling the message for everyone else.

[Lurker]

I'm not convinced.  I want to know the worst case scenario, so that I can plan.   And it reassures me to know that those in charge are considering those possibilities. 

I get that it causes some to disregard further warnings when the worst case doesn't materialize.  We see that all the time with hurricane warnings, where some say They always try to scare us, this time we're not leaving.  Most of us wouldn't want the weather forecasters to stop the hurricane warnings just because some people will stop paying attention. 

If some people have trouble dealing with the message, we need to help them cope, but not at the cost of cancelling the message for everyone else.

With hurricanes, we have a projected path, and we tell everyone within a certain distance of the cone to be prepared. Here, we're ignoring the length of previous waves (the cone) and put out projections as if it will continue unabated at it's current growth rate. There's a huge difference between saying, "we're setting up systems to cover our worst case scenario," and, "we believe there will be 2400 people in serious condition in a month."

[TimT]

They’re not saying it will happen, they’re preparing for the possibility. Was this a public press release or the media decided to publicize a meeting that was held ? Hard to keep such a thing a secret if they’re looking to do mass hiring.

[Lurker]

They’re not saying it will happen, they’re preparing for the possibility. Was this a public press release or the media decided to publicize a meeting that was held ? Hard to keep such a thing a secret if they’re looking to do mass hiring.

With Israel, it's hard to know what was meant to be public and what leaked. Regarding the mass hiring, that can be done without the projections and publicizing of extreme numbers. "We're coming up with a contingency plan in case this wave lasts longer than anticipated. Preparations include having extra staff in place to deal with a possible influx of hospitalizations."

[Moshe123]

5,802 cases is the final number for yesterday.

4,766 cases so far today. Not final.

405 in serious condition.

713k with the third dose.

4.57% positive rate.

14 deaths yesterday.

[PlatinumGuy]

I have no problem with that. But why publicize the worst case scenarios and cause panic? Some things should stay internal.

Still only mentioning the 4800 seriously ill point, albeit a week later it would be 9600 followed by 20k and 40k R"L - taking for granted that at some point people will stay at home and cases will start going down.

[PlatinumGuy]

Numbers continue to worsen. But one perspective that we shouldn't forget. Israel's positive rate is still less than a THIRD of that in the US.

The share of daily COVID-19 tests that are positive in the United States has risen from 1.8% in mid-June, to 15.2% at the end of last week. https://t.co/DWve1DBp7Y

Way worse than in Israel.

https://twitter.com/seldo/status/1424746420448288771

[aygart]

https://twitter.com/seldo/status/1424746420448288771

Why not? Aren't the more urban places more likely to have greater spread?

[PlatinumGuy]

Why not? Aren't the more urban places more likely to have greater spread?

Look at the rest of the country. Nebraska is reporting zero in many counties. They’re lying.

[Lurker]

Look at the rest of the country. Nebraska is reporting zero in many counties. They’re lying.

They're probably not the only ones.