The current state of COVID-19 in Israel

[Moshe123]

https://twitter.com/LittleMoiz/status/1426122341625565184?s=19

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/LittleMoiz/status/1426101077292748802?s=19

The quoted tweet is more concerning to me. The wave started with non-frum people flying in, and is only gaining steam in the frum community now.

There's a good chance the wave will end in the general population at the same time it reaches high numbers in the frum community, which won't look good at all.

The rate of transmission is the key, not the absolute numbers.

[yzj]

If the current thinking that vaccines aren’t very effective against the spread of Delta but are highly effective at preventing serious illness is true, why are we seeing numbers such as these?

“Of the 6,083 new cases reported Thursday, 44.4% were unvaccinated, compared to 54.3% who were fully vaccinated, and 1.3% who had received one dose of the vaccine.”

“Among seriously ill patients, 37.6% are not vaccinated, compared to 59.5% who are fully vaccinated and 2.2% who received one dose of the vaccine. Less than one percent of seriously ill patients did not have a listed vaccination status.“

Wouldn’t we see a far smaller percent of the seriously ill from among the vaccinated relative to percent infected?

[aygart]

If the current thinking that vaccines aren’t very effective against the spread of Delta but are highly effective at preventing serious illness is true, why are we seeing numbers such as these?

“Of the 6,083 new cases reported Thursday, 44.4% were unvaccinated, compared to 54.3% who were fully vaccinated, and 1.3% who had received one dose of the vaccine.”

“Among seriously ill patients, 37.6% are not vaccinated, compared to 59.5% who are fully vaccinated and 2.2% who received one dose of the vaccine. Less than one percent of seriously ill patients did not have a listed vaccination status.“

Wouldn’t we see a far smaller percent of the seriously ill from among the vaccinated relative to percent infected?

The fully vaccinated probably skew to higher risk.

[Ergel]

If the current thinking that vaccines aren’t very effective against the spread of Delta but are highly effective at preventing serious illness is true, why are we seeing numbers such as these?

“Of the 6,083 new cases reported Thursday, 44.4% were unvaccinated, compared to 54.3% who were fully vaccinated, and 1.3% who had received one dose of the vaccine.”

“Among seriously ill patients, 37.6% are not vaccinated, compared to 59.5% who are fully vaccinated and 2.2% who received one dose of the vaccine. Less than one percent of seriously ill patients did not have a listed vaccination status.“

Wouldn’t we see a far smaller percent of the seriously ill from among the vaccinated relative to percent infected?

Active cases per 100K

Serious hospitalizations per 100K

[yzj]

I see. Virtually all 60 and up.

[S209]

If the current thinking that vaccines aren’t very effective against the spread of Delta but are highly effective at preventing serious illness is true, why are we seeing numbers such as these?

“Of the 6,083 new cases reported Thursday, 44.4% were unvaccinated, compared to 54.3% who were fully vaccinated, and 1.3% who had received one dose of the vaccine.”

“Among seriously ill patients, 37.6% are not vaccinated, compared to 59.5% who are fully vaccinated and 2.2% who received one dose of the vaccine. Less than one percent of seriously ill patients did not have a listed vaccination status.“

Wouldn’t we see a far smaller percent of the seriously ill from among the vaccinated relative to percent infected?

1) What aygart said (to measure efficacy cases were being compared against each other by vaccination status stratified by age, here it’s all ages lumped together)

2) The vaccine, even Pfizer in Israel, is still effective against spread, just not as effective as against hospitalization. In Israel it’s probably something like 50%/85%. So you won’t see as large a cliff as you think, even in straight up comparisons by age.

[Ergel]

I see. Virtually all 60 and up.

Yup, and if you compare the par of cases vs. serious illness - it's like 2 to 1 vs. 10 to 1. Hence somewhat effective against transmission. VERY effective against serious illness

[S209]

I see. Virtually all 60 and up.

As is wont with COVID

[Moshe123]

3,659 cases so far today in Israel.
453 in serious condition.
813k with the third dose.
4.76% positive.

[Moshe123]

By the way, the rate of increase in net number in serious condition this week really slowed, even as cases are skyrocketing.

[PlatinumGuy]

By the way, the rate of increase in net number in serious condition this week really slowed, even as cases are skyrocketing.

Because 100 of them died…

[avromie7]

Because 100 of them died…

Is that a higher percentage than previously?

[Moshe123]

Because 100 of them died…

But you'd still expect the numbers to go higher yet.

[Moshe123]

https://twitter.com/betzalel_kahn/status/1426203374568067079?s=19

[AsherO]

https://twitter.com/LittleMoiz/status/1425891309219467268?s=08

Shouldn't it be deaths divided by cases for each group (vaccinated/unvaccinated), not vaccinated deaths divided by unvaccinated deaths?

[Moshe123]

Shouldn't it be deaths divided by cases for each group (vaccinated/unvaccinated), not vaccinated deaths divided by unvaccinated deaths?

I mean, it could be another metric. But this is comparing with the scariest part of covid.

[Ver hut gazugt]

https://www.israelhayom.com/2021/08/13/government-approves-3rd-vaccine-dose-for-israelis-over-50/

Over half of Thursday's confirmed cases, 53%, were identified in individuals who had been vaccinated for the disease, the Health Ministry said, while 43% of those who tested positive were unvaccinated. Two percent were in the process of inoculation, while 1% had already recovered from the virus. None of the new cases were identified among individuals who had recovered from the virus and received at least one dose of the vaccine.

[Ergel]

Taking bets on the Monday surge total number - I say 9250

[PlatinumGuy]

Taking bets on the Monday surge total number - I say 9250

7500 IMHO