Author Topic: The current state of COVID-19 in Israel  (Read 12382 times)

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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #30 on: June 23, 2020, 05:17:53 PM »
Most countries can survive for a very long time without tourists. The NZ economy is one of the best performing in the world. 5-10% hit from lack of tourism is much better than pandemonium created by a pandemic.

As much as we don't want to believe it, NZ & Israel are likely to stay close for a very long time.   

They will stay locked down until thereís a vaccine. Much better then having to stop and start the economy every 6 weeks.
You're right in concept, but technically NZ is not locked down. It's completely open with zero restrictions. Only the borders are closed to outsiders.
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #31 on: June 23, 2020, 06:18:00 PM »
Even just to compare to NY, there are still more daily new cases in NY (200-300 daily) vs. new cases in Israel. To think that NY is in better shape than Israel at this point is laughable.

Not sure what you were thinking when you wrote that. How are you comparing absolute numbers rather than on a per 100,000 residents basis?

NY new cases have been trending down for weeks (and then we had that magical trick Cuomo pulled on June 6th or 7th with the hospital beds), and COVID-19 deaths have been non-existent for a couple of weeks (as per Cuomo, medical experts are telling him that the numbers reported are in the range of a statistical error, and could be people that died from other causes and were just recorded as having died from COVID-19).

I don't know what the solution for Israel is, nor for the rest of the world. I am quite confident that places that were hit hard like the Jewish neighborhoods of Brooklyn are in a much better position now to fully reopen.

Look at this (click on tweet for more info)


Certain Jewish neighborhoods are there now!!!!  And those neighborhoods are arguably in better shape now than NZ is, as they have a lower likelihood of a spread with a new introduction (not counting population density, which is a huge differentiator in favor of NZ over Israel) than NZ is.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2020, 06:33:12 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #32 on: June 23, 2020, 06:36:49 PM »
I actually think the number of cases proportional to total population has very little value.
If a terrorist shoots 100 people, does it matter what their percentage of the population is? Israel never had widespread infection. The critical number there is the absolute count. Itís spread (or lack thereof) from 200/day last week to 500/day today has the same significance if the population is 10m or 100m. 
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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #33 on: June 23, 2020, 06:38:27 PM »

You're right in concept, but technically NZ is not locked down. It's completely open with zero restrictions. Only the borders are closed to outsiders.

Thatís what I meant.

Offline Ergel

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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #34 on: June 24, 2020, 08:06:11 AM »
Not sure what you were thinking when you wrote that. How are you comparing absolute numbers rather than on a per 100,000 residents basis?
Israel's population is similar in size to NYC, is it not?
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Offline Ergel

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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #35 on: June 24, 2020, 08:07:06 AM »
Israel was very close to being NZ. They may have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by reopening a bit too early, C"V.
NZ had 17 days of 0(!) infections before they opened up. Israel was AT LEAST a month a way from that (if they would ever have gotten there)
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Offline Proisrael

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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #36 on: June 24, 2020, 08:28:44 AM »
Israels new cases are almost all asymptomatic or extremely light. There was a slight uptick in ventilators and severe cases but they have come down over the past few days. 

Regardless the country is running like normal with even trains and theaters reopening again. If people are smart enough to keep their masks on the numbers will slow. Most of the spread has been from the reopening of schools. They are closing next week for summer vacation. I would expect the numbers to peak mid next week and then fall fast back to under 200.

Offline moish

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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #37 on: June 24, 2020, 10:39:28 AM »
Israel was very close to being NZ. They may have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by reopening a bit too early, C"V.
No, it was a mirage. When the new cases were in the teens it was merely a result of very restrictive testing criteria.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #38 on: June 24, 2020, 10:54:32 AM »
I actually think the number of cases proportional to total population has very little value.
If a terrorist shoots 100 people, does it matter what their percentage of the population is? Israel never had widespread infection. The critical number there is the absolute count. Itís spread (or lack thereof) from 200/day last week to 500/day today has the same significance if the population is 10m or 100m.

Israeli ministry of health doesn't seem to think so. When publishing the numbers for אלעד and טבריה they also put the ratio per 100k there.

I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #39 on: June 24, 2020, 02:23:37 PM »
Israels new cases are almost all asymptomatic or extremely light or presymptomatic. There was a slight uptick in ventilators and severe cases but they have come down over the past few days. 

Regardless the country is running like normal with even trains and theaters reopening again. If people are smart enough to keep their masks on the numbers will slow. Most of the spread has been from the reopening of schools. They are closing next week for summer vacation. I would expect the numbers to peak mid next week and then fall fast back to under 200.
FTFY

I hope youíre right, and I hope people stay smart, wear masks, and follow rules. I also hope everyone especially more vulnerable people are encouraged to take extra precautions. If they do then there is some risk that will have to be accepted.
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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #41 on: June 24, 2020, 07:28:59 PM »
Israeli ministry of health doesn't seem to think so. When publishing the numbers for אלעד and טבריה they also put the ratio per 100k there.
It makes sense in terms of the collective punishment effect of a lockdown - the higher the ratio the higher the odds that any given resident is a carrier
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Offline Moshe123

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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #42 on: June 24, 2020, 07:34:30 PM »
Israel added 532 cases today. ZERO new hospitalizations.

Hashem should help.

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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #43 on: June 24, 2020, 07:56:39 PM »
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Re: The myth of the current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« Reply #44 on: June 24, 2020, 07:59:45 PM »
On June 24 at 10:50am MoH reported 188 hospitalized
On June 24 at 19:00 Moh reported 189 hospitalized

N12/Mako is reporting 6 additional patients in serious condition, unclear if itís above 189 or inside the 189.
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