The current state of COVID-19 in Israel

[Ergel]

Just curious - was it a prediction, or was it a model if everything stated the same (and then things changed).

https://menafn.com/1100874260/Prepare-for-1500-seriously-ill-patients-by-Oct-1-Netanyahu
This was earlier this week! After the lockdown had already gone into effect

[yuneeq]

https://menafn.com/1100874260/Prepare-for-1500-seriously-ill-patients-by-Oct-1-Netanyahu
This was earlier this week! After the lockdown had already gone into effect

In unprecedented times it might not be so bad to prepare for the worst, after RH/YK was it not possible to reach 1500? Bh the preparations were for naught.

[ExGingi]

In unprecedented times it might not be so bad to prepare for the worst, after RH/YK was it not possible to reach 1500? Bh the preparations were for naught.

And is spreading unnecessary panic healthy? Do you consider mental health naught?

[yuneeq]

And is spreading unnecessary panic healthy? Do you consider mental health naught?

Saying to "prepare for 1500" would actually put me more at ease if it was even a remote possibility. If he said "there will be 1500 patients" that's another story.

[ExGingi]

Saying to "prepare for 1500" would actually put me more at ease if it was even a remote possibility. If he said "there will be 1500 patients" that's another story.

You're not an Israeli. That's not how they interpret things there.

[Lurker]

I'm fed up with the stupid overexaggerations around Covid predictions. I knew on Sunday when Netanyahu said to prepare for 1500 ICU patients by the end of the week that it was baloney. We get it, it's serious. What do you gain by making stuff up? 850 is bad, why make up 1500?

He said prepare for 1500, and BH it ended up being about 55% of that (so far). I can see where you might get frustrated a prediction of deaths, or a prediction of many multiples the actual ICU numbers, but to prepare for less than double the actual number? I wouldn't get too bent out of shape about that.

[yuneeq]

You're not an Israeli. That's not how they interpret things there.

Fair enough

[Ergel]

He said prepare for 1500, and BH it ended up being about 55% of that (so far). I can see where you might get frustrated a prediction of deaths, or a prediction of many multiples the actual ICU numbers, but to prepare for less than double the actual number? I wouldn't get too bent out of shape about that.

It was already at 775 when he said that, so more accurately it was 75/825 - or less than 10%

[PlatinumGuy]

I'm fed up with the stupid overexaggerations around Covid predictions. I knew on Sunday when Netanyahu said to prepare for 1500 ICU patients by the end of the week that it was baloney. We get it, it's serious. What do you gain by making stuff up? 850 is bad, why make up 1500?

You simply misunderstood. He set a target date for preparation, he didn't anticipate 1500 cases.

[Ergel]

Serology reports indicate a 5.5% seroprevelance. https://www.timesofisrael.com/antibodies-survey-finds-5-of-israelis-exposed-to-covid-far-from-herd-immunity/ This indicates around 500K infections
Not clear when that number is from. Let's assume it includes until the beginning of September? Middle of September? So let's say 140K infections were recorded at that time, meaning there were 2 unreported cases for every reported case. and would mean we are likely at around nearly a million infections now? Which would mean the mortality rate is under .2%

[ExGingi]

Serology reports indicate a 5.5% seroprevelance. https://www.timesofisrael.com/antibodies-survey-finds-5-of-israelis-exposed-to-covid-far-from-herd-immunity/ This indicates around 500K infections
Not clear when that number is from. Let's assume it includes until the beginning of September? Middle of September? So let's say 140K infections were recorded at that time, meaning there were 2 unreported cases for every reported case. and would mean we are likely at around nearly a million infections now? Which would mean the mortality rate is under .2%

The ultimate senseless double standard!

Making anything out of the serology reports while refusing to recognize them as proof of prior infection and recovery with a current negative PCR test for purposes of shortened quarantine.

#MostPoliticizedVirusEver

[aygart]

shortened quarantine.

Is this what everything comes down to?

[Afrages6]

The ultimate senseless double standard!

Making anything out of the serology reports while refusing to recognize them as proof of prior infection and recovery with a current negative PCR test for purposes of shortened quarantine.

#MostPoliticizedVirusEver

Serology reports can take into account the specificity of the test when you have a large sample size. A single serology result has a much larger room for error

[ExGingi]

Is this what everything comes down to?

That's just a sample issue.

https://www.themarker.com/amp/news/health/.premium-1.9220198

[Moshe123]

Serology reports indicate a 5.5% seroprevelance. https://www.timesofisrael.com/antibodies-survey-finds-5-of-israelis-exposed-to-covid-far-from-herd-immunity/ This indicates around 500K infections
Not clear when that number is from. Let's assume it includes until the beginning of September? Middle of September? So let's say 140K infections were recorded at that time, meaning there were 2 unreported cases for every reported case. and would mean we are likely at around nearly a million infections now? Which would mean the mortality rate is under .2%

There is no way it's accurate. I remember there was a lot of criticism of the previous serological "poll."

[Moshe123]

The positive percentage somehow dropped every day this week.

[Lurker]

The positive percentage somehow dropped every day this week.

Somehow?

[Moshe123]

Somehow?

Yeah. It's Yom Tov. Shuls are open illegally everywhere. People are mingling everywhere. Unless much less frum are testing now due to Yom Tov, but I don't think that's true. I think I saw the positive percentage in Yerushalayim plummeted this week. Much less tests now, but that should have caused it to go up.

[Lurker]

Yeah. It's Yom Tov. Shuls are open illegally everywhere. People are mingling everywhere. Unless much less frum are testing now due to Yom Tov, but I don't think that's true. I think I saw the positive percentage in Yerushalayim plummeted this week. Much less tests now, but that should have caused it to go up.

I know little about what's going on in Israel, but from the little I've read, here and on a couple of other sites, people seem to be taking it a bit more seriously since YK. Granted, some more than others There's probably also a faction of people who aren't testing. It doesn't come as a shock that numbers are going down.

[S209]

The positive percentage somehow dropped every day this week.

Call me crazy, but isn’t there a lockdown?