The current state of COVID-19 in Israel

[biobook]

It isn’t, but in a society with herd immunity R number will remain below 1 so even if there’s active infection it will soon die out. Compared to thousands of daily deaths a day in the US, in the hypothetical reality that everyone was suddenly vaccinated, after a relatively short while (say 2 weeks) COVID would be as much a concern as (gasp) the flu.

Agreed.  If everyone could be vaccinated all at once, then there would be little virus circulating, and a vaccine with 95% efficacy would be close to 100% effective and we could forget about masks and distancing. 

But of course we can't all get vaccinated at once, so for the immediate future, it's important that people understand that masks and distancing are still recommended.

[AsherO]

Agreed.  If everyone could be vaccinated all at once, then there would be little virus circulating, and a vaccine with 95% efficacy would be close to 100% effective and we could forget about masks and distancing. 

But of course we can't all get vaccinated at once, so for the immediate future, it's important that people understand that masks and distancing are still recommended.

Even in the real world 95% efficacy means someone vaccinated is ~20x less likely to spread COVID (two weeks after their second dose) than someone not vaccinated. Maybe even less likely if the 5% who aren’t immune have lower viral loads than someone not vaccinated.

[biobook]

Even in the real world 95% efficacy means someone vaccinated is ~20x less likely to spread COVID (two weeks after their second dose) than someone not vaccinated. Maybe even less likely if the 5% who aren’t immune have lower viral loads than someone not vaccinated.

Do they have data to show that?  When I was reading about this a couple weeks ago, scientists/doctors were saying that they can't be sure about how much vaccination would decrease the spread.  That is, they thought it was possible that there would be sufficient virus in the respiratory passages, such that a vaccinated person could emit them while speaking, singing, coughing, etc, and thereby transmit the infection, even though they themselves are able to fight it off.  I agree with you that I think it unlikely, but not impossible. 

The question is what we do with that information. 
If your goal is to reassure anxious people that the end of the pandemic is near,  then, yes, I agree, emphasize that it'll probably turn out that vaccinated people don't get sick and don't transmit infection. 
If your goal is to prevent illness, then I would take the opposite tack, emphasizing that we just don't know yet whether vaccinated people can transmit disease, and what factors play a role in their getting covid anyway, and therefore they should continue to mask/distance until a much larger fraction of the population has been vaccinated.

[ExGingi]

Do they have data to show that?  When I was reading about this a couple weeks ago, scientists/doctors were saying that they can't be sure about how much vaccination would decrease the spread.  That is, they thought it was possible that there would be sufficient virus in the respiratory passages, such that a vaccinated person could emit them while speaking, singing, coughing, etc, and thereby transmit the infection, even though they themselves are able to fight it off.  I agree with you that I think it unlikely, but not impossible. 

The question is what we do with that information. 
If your goal is to reassure anxious people that the end of the pandemic is near,  then, yes, I agree, emphasize that it'll probably turn out that vaccinated people don't get sick and don't transmit infection. 
If your goal is to prevent illness, then I would take the opposite tack, emphasizing that we just don't know yet whether vaccinated people can transmit disease, and what factors play a role in their getting covid anyway, and therefore they should continue to mask/distance until a much larger fraction of the population has been vaccinated.

And what if your goal is to gain credibility so that you can more effectively reach any other intended goal?

[AsherO]

Do they have data to show that?  When I was reading about this a couple weeks ago, scientists/doctors were saying that they can't be sure about how much vaccination would decrease the spread.  That is, they thought it was possible that there would be sufficient virus in the respiratory passages, such that a vaccinated person could emit them while speaking, singing, coughing, etc, and thereby transmit the infection, even though they themselves are able to fight it off.  I agree with you that I think it unlikely, but not impossible.

If this was true then ceiling fans are more likely to spread COVID than infected people, and house pets as likely to spread it as immune people, and there’s no evidence about either of these. It might be theoretically possible but is less of a risk IMHO than immune people spreading COVID by touch.

[Afrages6]

And what if your goal is to gain credibility so that you can more effectively reach any other intended goal?

Exactly. Public health experts are doing harm to the public health when they mislead the public over and over again.

[yelped]

What do you think that reason is?

@ExGingi's Immunity passports.

[biobook]

If this was true then ceiling fans are more likely to spread COVID than infected people, and house pets as likely to spread it as immune people, and there’s no evidence about either of these. It might be theoretically possible but is less of a risk IMHO than immune people spreading COVID by touch.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.  That we don't know whether immunized people spreading covid is just a theoretical possibility, or if it will occur in reality?  I agree with that.  Or are you suggesting that we should assume the risk will be so low that we should ignore it, and dispense with social distancing?

[biobook]

And what if your goal is to gain credibility so that you can more effectively reach any other intended goal?

Public health experts have to create messages that will be quickly understood by the diverse 300 million people in the country, and they haven't always succeeded at that, leading some to misunderstand what they say.  Although their messages have changed, as scientific knowledge of the pandemic has advanced, I have always found them to be quite credible.  What exactly have you found difficult to believe?   

Exactly. Public health experts are doing harm to the public health when they mislead the public over and over again.

I don't feel that I've been repeatedly misled by public health experts. What do you feel was misleading?

[Afrages6]

I don't feel that I've been repeatedly misled by public health experts. What do you feel was misleading?

1. Flattening the curve
2. Masks
3. Vaccines allowing us to get back to normal

[biobook]

1. Flattening the curve
2. Masks
3. Vaccines allowing us to get back to normal

Could you use full sentences?  What were you told about these that was misleading, and who said it?

[AsherO]

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.  That we don't know whether immunized people spreading covid is just a theoretical possibility, or if it will occur in reality?  I agree with that.  Or are you suggesting that we should assume the risk will be so low that we should ignore it, and dispense with social distancing?

We could dispense with social distancing for people who’ve received their second dose once x% of the population is vaccinated.

[biobook]

We could dispense with social distancing for people who’ve received their second dose once x% of the population is vaccinated.

But the value of x needs to be decided empirically, and it will likely be months before we get there.

[Afrages6]

Could you use full sentences?  What were you told about these that was misleading, and who said it?

In March when dr fauci and dr birx said we should social distance for 15 days to stop the spread. Long 15 days no?

When fauci said at the beginning that masks don’t help and then said that he was lying to protect health care workers.

When fauci admitted that he lied about how many Americans needed to be vaccinated before we can get back to normal because he didn’t think Americans could handle the truth.

[S209]

In March when dr fauci and dr birx said we should social distance for 15 days to stop the spread. Long 15 days no?

That wasn't a lie. He said we should basically lock down for a couple of weeks to mitigate the spread. There was no way for them to know in advance how long it would take or how widespread infection would be, and indeed many restrictions were rolled back at a federal level after several weeks. Dr. Birx didn't say it, considering she wasn't part of the task force at that stage.

When fauci said at the beginning that masks don’t help and then said that he was lying to protect health care workers.

That's not what happened. Fauci said he didn't recommend masks for the public at the time because he didn't believe infection was widespread enough to warrant public mask-wearing and where it was certainly needed was for health care workers. Later, the equation changed as the extent of infection grew and mask production caught up. He also recommended cloth masks and the like which are less proven and less efficacious because the extent of infection warranted at least that.

When fauci admitted that he lied about how many Americans needed to be vaccinated before we can get back to normal because he didn’t think Americans could handle the truth.

This recent admission of his does look quite icky, although anyone who has been following should have realized by now that the number for herd immunity is probably at the 90%+ number, not the 60%-70% being trumpeted around for the last few months. I've posted here extensively on this. It's likely that with time he has come to the same realization as well although I'll grant you that it was quite distasteful of him to make those comments.

[AsherO]

But the value of x needs to be decided empirically, and it will likely be months before we get there.

I’m not sure it does. Hopefully by the time 70-80% of the country is vaccinated the spread will be slowed to a point that it might not matter as much. Keep in mind it’ll likely be Spring/summer and the spread will naturally decrease as it is due to things moving outdoors.

[biobook]

Quote from: Afrages6 on Today at 10:36:31 PM
In March when dr fauci and dr birx said we should social distance for 15 days to stop the spread. Long 15 days no?

That wasn't a lie. He said we should basically lock down for a couple of weeks to mitigate the spread. There was no way for them to know in advance how long it would take or how widespread infection would be, and indeed many restrictions were rolled back at a federal level after several weeks. Dr. Birx didn't say it, considering she wasn't part of the task force at that stage.

My memory is that the 15 day slogan was a Trump plan, with Trump saying it'll be just till Easter.  Trump announced his "15 days" on March 16, and the next day in an op-ed some public health experts made clear that 15 days was too short:  "No one knows for sure how long social distancing will have to last to reduce the spread to near zero. But if South Korea and China are appropriate exemplars, we’ll need to stay apart now for at least eight weeks, and maybe more... Plan for social distancing at least until mid- or late May, and be thankful if it eases off earlier." 

I found the public health experts to be more credible than Trump.  He later suggested that he had made light of the pandemic early so as to keep peoples' spirits up, but I wasn't taken in by his optimistic scenario.

[Jellybelly]

I’m not sure it does. Hopefully by the time 70-80% of the country is vaccinated the spread will be slowed to a point that it might not matter as much. Keep in mind it’ll likely be Spring/summer and the spread will naturally decrease as it is due to things moving outdoors.

Keep in mind millions of us are already immune without the vaccine

[Jack out of the box]

I’m not sure it does. Hopefully by the time 70-80% of the country is vaccinated the spread will be slowed to a point that it might not matter as much. Keep in mind it’ll likely be Spring/summer and the spread will naturally decrease as it is due to things moving outdoors.

Here in Israel we are in for a week of 70 degrees and sunny. Not exactly the weather that makes most people afraid of the outdoors.

[Ergel]

I think what people aren't understanding is that there are two types of immunity that can be achieved via vaccine, effective immunity and sterilizing immunity. Effective immunity means that you can still become a host of the virus, but are protected from it having a detrimental effect on your health. Sterilizing immunity means you can't be a host.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5011745/
All that we know so far is that the Covid vaccine provides effective immunity. We don't yet know whether the vaccine provides sterilizing immunity. That DOESN'T mean that the vaccine does not provide sterilizing immunity. It just means we don't yet know if it provides sterilizing immunity.
I don't get why it's so hard for people to understand that absence of proof is not proof the other way.