The current state of COVID-19 in Israel

[yelped]

https://twitter.com/yuvharpaz/status/1367074214981828609?s=19

Why would we assume only some were infected before? Since most deaths seem to occur on average 30 days after being infected, that would mean all were infected prior to getting the second dose.

[Lurker]

Why would we assume only some were infected before? Since most deaths seem to occur on average 30 days after being infected, that would mean all were infected prior to getting the second dose.

I'd assume they aren't giving vaccines to people they know are currently infected, which would narrow things down a bit.

[avromie7]

I'd assume they aren't giving vaccines to people they know are currently infected, which would narrow things down a bit.

IIRC someone posted about people who were symptomatic going to get vaccinated. Even without this, it's very likely that these people were infected between the 2 doses and weren't symptomatic yet by the time they got the second dose.

[Moshe123]

Edelstein has stopped posting his daily updates with daily vaccination numbers. Anyone know where else to get those numbers?

It slowed down, because what's left is mostly not the low-hanging fruit.

https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/

[Moshe123]

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1367149866418376706?s=19

[S209]

Why would we assume only some were infected before? Since most deaths seem to occur on average 30 days after being infected, that would mean all were infected prior to getting the second dose.

IIRC someone posted about people who were symptomatic going to get vaccinated. Even without this, it's very likely that these people were infected between the 2 doses and weren't symptomatic yet by the time they got the second dose.

Definitely need to wait on this for another couple of weeks. The ratios are fluctuating too much and it’s highly likely that *all* patients who have had their first dose and *most* who’ve had their second were infected prior to their first/second dose. IIRC the average time from exposure to death is around 3 weeks, and I don’t know how much longer after that it takes to access and publish the death/vaccination data, but considering there is a 3 week interval between doses and second doses have only been administered for 6-7 weeks or so at this point it’s impossible to really decipher.

[S209]

Just realized another possible reason why the vaccine effect isn’t nearly as obvious in those numbers as they should be- the comparison is terrible. 75% of deaths have come from unvaccinated people despite them representing a cohort that includes only 12% of people over 50(!)

[avromie7]

Just realized another possible reason why the vaccine effect isn’t nearly as obvious in those numbers as they should be- the comparison is terrible. 75% of deaths have come from unvaccinated people despite them representing a cohort that includes only 12% of people over 50(!)

If there is a 30 day lag from infection to death, you need to see what percentage were vaccinated 30+ days ago.

[Ergel]

It slowed down, because what's left is mostly not the low-hanging fruit.

https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/

Still doing 40-45K/day which is probably around 5% of eligible non-vax/non-recovered.
I'm sure number will go up now that they are vaccinating machlimim, but to me the important number is # of remaining non machlim/non-vax. Which is hard to come by

[Ergel]

If there is a 30 day lag from infection to death, you need to see what percentage were vaccinated 30+ days ago.

I think 30 days is an overestimate. Seeing online it's like 17 days from onset of symptoms, meaning it's around 22-23 days from infection
Plus there seems to be theories that vaccination post infection can be effective as well

[avromie7]

Still doing 40-45K/day which is probably around 5% of eligible non-vax/non-recovered.
I'm sure number will go up now that they are vaccinating machlimim, but to me the important number is # of remaining non machlim/non-vax. Which is hard to come by

Now 2 weeks later 52.4% of the population received at least 1 dose. I assume a decent number of those who who tested positive are among the vaccinated. 8.5% of the population tested positive, if we assume half of them got the vaccine, that gives us 56.65% of the population either tested positive or got the vaccine. That leaves only around 13.5% of the population (1.25 million people) eligible for the vaccine but still not immune or vaccinated. This also means Israel was able to vaccinate between 1/4 and 1/3 of the remaining eligible population in the past 2 weeks.

Your 5% estimate is probably on target. While an exact number is hard to come by, we can get a pretty good idea. At the time I posted this I didn't realize they still weren't allowing people who previously tested positive to be vaccinated. Based on that I would update this to assume 61-62% of the population is vaccinated or otherwise immune, close to 30% of the population is too young, leaving approximately 10% of the population (900k-1m people) still eligible for the vaccine.

[S209]

I think 30 days is an overestimate. Seeing online it's like 17 days from onset of symptoms, meaning it's around 22-23 days from infection
Plus there seems to be theories that vaccination post infection can be effective as well

How long does each death take to be reflected in data?

If there is a 30 day lag from infection to death, you need to see what percentage were vaccinated 30+ days ago.

Fair. But it’s definitely not 50/50- there were definitely more (partially) vaccinated than not by end of January.

[PlatinumGuy]

How long does each death take to be reflected in data?

Israel is a small place, the vast majority of deaths are reported within a day or two.

[avromie7]

IINM 40-45k/day is all age groups, 5% would be only if they were all 50+

Unless I'm the one who misunderstood, he's saying every day 5% of people who are still eligible to be vaccinated are vaccinated. Based on my calculation above there are roughly 900k-1m people who didn't have COVID and weren't vaccinated, 5% of that would be 45-50k.

[Lurker]

Unless I'm the one who misunderstood, he's saying every day 5% of people who are still eligible to be vaccinated are vaccinated. Based on my calculation above there are roughly 900k-1m people who didn't have COVID and weren't vaccinated, 5% of that would be 45-50k.

Seems low... How'd you come to that number?

[PlatinumGuy]

Unless I'm the one who misunderstood, he's saying every day 5% of people who are still eligible to be vaccinated are vaccinated. Based on my calculation above there are roughly 900k-1m people who didn't have COVID and weren't vaccinated, 5% of that would be 45-50k.

You're right, my bad.

[PlatinumGuy]

Seems low... How'd you come to that number?

Israel vaccinated ~5m people and there are ~6m adults.

[Lurker]

Israel vaccinated ~5m people and there are ~6m adults.

3.5m. 1.3m are still waiting on second doses.

[PlatinumGuy]

3.5m. 1.3m are still waiting on second doses.

@Ergel was discussing people getting first dose. 40-45k/day is around 5% of the remaining eligible population. Overall daily vaccinations including second doses are around 100k.

Netanyahu is predicting the vaccine drive will end at the end of March/beginning of April which is remarkably astute as the rule of diminishing marginal returns makes the daily percentage drop.

[Lurker]

@Ergel was discussing people getting first dose. 40-45k/day is around 5% of the remaining eligible population.

Missed that. That's why I asked for the calculation.