I was bringing grumpiness to the Good News thread, so will start a new one.
Several comments over the past week suggest that we should reopen already, and let those who are fearful or vulnerable just stay home or take the risks. I'm not picking on anyone in particular, but here are a couple I see:
“I still believe there is some balance where we can mitigate the effects of a second wave (limit big events and protect the vulnerable) as well as open up everything else…”
“It's time to open completely and let the vulnerable population decide their own risk tolerance.”
As if there's an Us and a Them; a young, healthy, risk-taking Us and a small, sickly (though much-loved) Them.
This reminds me of a quote from Isaac Harby, a lawyer in the large Jewish community of Charleston SC. It was 1816, and Mordechai Manuel Noah had just been removed from his diplomatic post in North Africa. In firing him, the Secretary of State said that he never would have appointed Noah to work in a Muslim country, had he known that Noah was Jewish. Harby protested that Jews are not some separate group of Them, protected by a benevolent majority of Us Americans, but rather they
are Americans. There is no “them” and “us”. Or, as he put it,
"[Jews] are by no means to be considered as a religious sect, tolerated by the government; They constitute a portion of the People. They are, in every respect, woven in and compacted with the citizens of the Republic. Quakers and Catholics; Episcopalians and Presbyterians, Baptists and Jews, all constitute one great political family."
I would paraphrase his argument for our situation today: The vulnerables are not some miniscule group of unfortunates, to be tolerated and protected by the healthy. Rather, the vulnerables are closely linked to the healthy, dispersed among them, an integral part of the community.
The vulnerables
are Us.
Just what “portion of the People” are the vulnerables?
The
Kaiser Foundation tried to calculate the number of Americans who are vulnerable, because they’re either over 65, or because they’re in the younger 18-64 year old age group with “heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), uncontrolled asthma, diabetes, or a BMI greater than 40”.
They concluded that 38% of Americans are vulnerable to serious illness if they get covid. Let’s add 12% to include the immunocompromised, those who live with or care for a vulnerable person, and those who’ve had a severe case of covid and are especially motivated to avoid re-infection. That brings us to a round 50% who may consider that they must take extreme steps to avoid getting covid. I would guess the real number is higher.
The vulnerables include the former customers of the businesses who'd like to reopen. Will those businesses have to close if they invest in reopening and only half of their customers feel it's safe to return? Is that the "normal" we want?
The vulnerables include Rebbeim and Roshei Yeshiva, teachers and principals, storekeepers and restaurant owners. How will it change their lives and the future of their mosdos and businesses if we re-open too quickly, before the community accepts the need for safe behaviors? How many will decide that this might be a good time to withdraw from the public sphere, and close their businesses or retire early, to avoid the danger? Is that the "normal" we want?
You claim that you’re not seeing these numbers on the streets of Lakewood, where 98% of people are comfortable walking around with no masks and no SD. This estimate reminds me of the man from Chelm (l’havdil, not calling you a fool) who lost his wallet midblock, but searched for it under the corner streetlamp because the light was better there. How many people are
not on the streets, missing from your calculation, because they're out-of-sight at home, away from the unsafe environment that has been created in the community?
We need a more accurate estimate of just how many vulnerable people we have in the community, before we cavalierly call for a return to our former normal life.
I’m not advocating for a “forever” quarantine, just that we should stop asking “When can we reopen already?” Rather, the question should be “How can we reopen in such a way that we – the healthy
and the vulnerable – can once again become a well-integrated community?”
Part of the answer to that, I think, includes SD and mask-wearing, even by the half of the community who are certain that their own health makes this unnecessary for themselves.
