Is Florida less honest than China?

[S209]

Are death rates up significantly too?

Why would they be?

I think he means are deaths up, not death rate

[Lurker]

I think he means are deaths up, not death rate

Same answers mostly apply.

[S209]

Same answers mostly apply.

Correct, except

2) More testing means the rate will go down, not up. Total deaths may go up, but the rate will decrease.

[PlatinumGuy]

https://miami.cbslocal.com/2020/06/23/homestead-hospital-at-capacity-baptist-health-confirms/

[PlatinumGuy]

Florida had 6500 pneumonia deaths that weren’t reported as Covid related in 2020, compared with 3-3500 for the same six months of 2016-2019

[Lurker]

Florida had 6500 pneumonia deaths that weren’t reported as Covid related in 2020, compared with 3-3500 for the same six months of 2016-2019

You read that a little wrong, I believe. Total pneumonia deaths per year for 2016-19 were between 3344-3982. The total Covid/pneumonia/flu Deaths in the first 6 months of 2020 (not even full 6 months, til June 13) was 8391. That's a lot of excess deaths. And those are just the ones buried in the pneumonia stats.

[cgr]

https://www.foxnews.com/us/florida-coronavirus-cases-record-levels
The newspaper reported that it takes as long as two weeks to get confirmations of coronavirus-related deaths in Florida.

Huh? So the death toll reported today is two weeks old, and for all we care to know it could be in the triple digits right now?

[PlatinumGuy]

https://www.foxnews.com/us/florida-coronavirus-cases-record-levels
The newspaper reported that it takes as long as two weeks to get confirmations of coronavirus-related deaths in Florida.

Huh? So the death toll reported today is two weeks old, and for all we care to know it could be in the triple digits right now?

Ah, the bliss of ignorance

[Lurker]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243775237.html

TESTING DEBATE
Though public health experts said testing had flat-lined or even slowed in Florida, state officials rejected that premise, pointing instead to two-week averages to claim that testing continues to increase.

“The state is continuing to increase COVID-19 testing daily,” said Jason Mahon, a spokesman for the Department of Emergency Management, in a statement.

Mahon added that the state has opened six new testing locations since May 29 and has expanded capacity at many state-supported testing sites, including in Orange County, where he said that testing capacity doubled from 1,000 tests per day to 2,000.

But demand for testing has waned as many people appeared to lose interest in COVID-19 and the state moved forward with reopening, perhaps leading some to let down their guard and ignore social distancing and other prevention measures.

“We all agree that people were getting more lax, and it’s why we are where we are now,” said Miami-Dade Deputy Mayor Jennifer Moon.

Testing in the county has trended downward over the last two weeks despite ample capacity to provide tests, though Moon said she expects more people will want to be tested in the coming weeks as the disease continues to spread in the community at a high rate.

The two-week average of positive cases out of total tests in Miami-Dade was nearly 14% on Wednesday, well above the county’s goal of maintaining a positive test rate of 10% or less — a development that led county officials to crack down on enforcement of social distancing and mandatory face masks at indoor businesses, such as restaurants and barber shops.

So much for the narrative about the increase in cases coming from increased testing...

[Lurker]

Here's the thing people miss about Florida. The locals have all stayed home. All those people coming from hotspots? When someone gets sick in FL, but they are a resident of another state, it doesn't count towards our numbers. They count the infection on the home state's numbers. Florida's numbers look great, but the truth is a lot murkier.

Turns out I was right about this, as a big point of contention right now is that not a single death from someone who uses an out-of-state address as their primary residence is counted in FL's tally. In most states, that's not a big deal. Considering how empty our streets and stores get when the snowbirds and tourists leave each year, that's a huge deal here. Add in that most of them are over 50, where the vast majority of serious cases and deaths occur, and it completely changes the reality that was being portrayed by DeSantis and championed by NYers suffering from "greener grass syndrome."

[avromie7]

Turns out I was right about this, as a big point of contention right now is that not a single death from someone who uses an out-of-state address as their primary residence is counted in FL's tally. In most states, that's not a big deal. Considering how empty our streets and stores get when the snowbirds and tourists leave each year, that's a huge deal here. Add in that most of them are over 50, where the vast majority of serious cases and deaths occur, and it completely changes the reality that was being portrayed by DeSantis and championed by NYers suffering from "greener grass syndrome."

That's an issue.

I can think of 3 reasons you're less likely to see deaths from out of state residents
1) The biggest source of deaths in most states (I'd assume the same for FL) is LTC facilities, their residents are all FL residents. People who live in their own homes are able to protect themselves better.
2) Anyone who can make FL their primary residence will, so presumably most snowbirds are FL residents.
3) Snowbirds (especially those who aren't FL residents) are generally people who are (relatively) younger / semi-retired.

[Lurker]

That's an issue.

I can think of 3 reasons you're less likely to see deaths from out of state residents
1) The biggest source of deaths in most states (I'd assume the same for FL) is LTC facilities, their residents are all FL residents. People who live in their own homes are able to protect themselves better.

Total FL deaths reported by DOH: 3327
From LTCF: 1625

Regarding which people would be better protected, I'd argue a facility is easier to isolate. Many, many condos and developments here are restricted to people 55+. They still have to source their supplies from the same places as the rest of us, but then bring those germs back with them into their high-risk communities. Elevators, handrails, mail distribution, and other common areas are all ripe for spreading. 

2) Anyone who can make FL their primary residence will, so presumably most snowbirds are FL residents.

This isn't true. Most of them keep their primary residences elsewhere for many reasons, including medical, legal, and financial. The average snowbird lives in FL for approximately 4-5 months, so technically they shouldn't be claiming FL residence, either.

3) Snowbirds (especially those who aren't FL residents) are generally people who are (relatively) younger / semi-retired.

This just isn't the reality. IME, the average snowbird is fully retired, and is between 50 and 80 years old.

[avromie7]

Total FL deaths reported by DOH: 3327
From LTCF: 1625

Regarding which people would be better protected, I'd argue a facility is easier to isolate. Many, many condos and developments here are restricted to people 55+. They still have to source their supplies from the same places as the rest of us, but then bring those germs back with them into their high-risk communities. Elevators, handrails, mail distribution, and other common areas are all ripe for spreading. 

This isn't true. Most of them keep their primary residences elsewhere for many reasons, including medical, legal, and financial. The average snowbird lives in FL for approximately 4-5 months, so technically they shouldn't be claiming FL residence, either.

This just isn't the reality. IME, the average snowbird is fully retired, and is between 50 and 80 years old.

As I suspected, LTCF comprise nearly 50%.

1) It's much more difficult to keep a facility isolated. All it takes is 1 staff member who isn't careful and you have an outbreak.

2&3) You're probably a lot more familiar than I am. I was under the impression most snowbirds start at in their 50's semi retired and as time goes on they stay longer and longer. The financial incentive is usually to have FL residence to save income tax.

[Lurker]

As I suspected, LTCF comprise nearly 50% of reported deaths.

FTFY. See @PlatinumGuy's post above regarding the magical pneumonia deaths.

1) It's much more difficult to keep a facility isolated. All it takes is 1 staff member who isn't careful and you have an outbreak.

Possibly, but the patients are all in one place, with all their needs provided on site. Out of a facility, all shopping is done by individuals, and medical care is given at public facilities.

2&3) You're probably a lot more familiar than I am. I was under the impression most snowbirds start at in their 50's semi retired and as time goes on they stay longer and longer. The financial incentive is usually to have FL residence to save income tax.

No income, no tax. And tax is generally paid to the state in which it is earned. There are most definitely a large number of semi-retirees, as well, but IINM they are in the minority.

[biobook]

Turns out I was right about this, as a big point of contention right now is that not a single death from someone who uses an out-of-state address as their primary residence is counted in FL's tally.

They've been doing this from the beginning, providing separate numbers for FL and non-FL residents.  I first found it annoying, because I really don't care what the permanent residence is of the neighbor who infects me - I just want to know how many cases are in my area.  But now I'm thinking maybe this is required by the CDC.  Covid is a reportable disease, and using the permanent residence of cases might be a requirement to prevent double counting.

[Lurker]

They've been doing this from the beginning, providing separate numbers for FL and non-FL residents.  I first found it annoying, because I really don't care what the permanent residence is of the neighbor who infects me - I just want to know how many cases are in my area.  But now I'm thinking maybe this is required by the CDC.  Covid is a reportable disease, and using the permanent residence of cases might be a requirement to prevent double counting.

The CDC definitely asks you for your primary residence for their records. They do not ask you where you were when you contracted the virus, which is understandable because it may be hard to pinpoint that answer. There is a value in reporting by primary residence, but it inhibits the ability to get real numbers in a place like FL, with so many people from out of town.

DOH says they report non-resident cases, but not deaths. I've heard theories about only transients and foreigners being counted in the positive case numbers. Given the posted number of 2294 non-resident cases, it would make some sense. There were also questions about whether illegal immigrants were being counted. Being Florida, that number wouldn't be unsubstantial.

[Jellybelly]

Atleast Florida’s number  haven’t  been as off as Biden’s numbers.
He claims that 120 million died so far.
Would be funny if it wasn’t sad

[B.D.Da'ehu]

Atleast Florida’s number  haven’t  been as off as Biden’s numbers.
He claims that 120 million died so far.
Would be funny if it wasn’t sad

Wrong thread.


Try here you may get some takers
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=116735.0;topicseen

[Jellybelly]

Wrong thread.


Try here you may get some takers
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=116735.0;topicseen

Why’s it the wrong thread?
Is it cuz Biden isn’t playing with the numbers? He’s just losing it?

[Lurker]

Just under 9k new cases announced today. Contrast the case count and reactions between TX and FL.