Is Florida less honest than China?

[S209]

Just another case of misleading numbers since the age 18-34 group, the group with the smallest percent increase actually has the largest number of cases by far, while the group with the largest percent increase, the 65-79 age group,  has one of the smallest number of infections of all the age groups. So in actually numbers more than five times as many 18-39 year old have recently contracted the virus as 65-79 year olds.

So while it definitely is spreading to the older population as well, it’s not nearly as dramatic as the percentage numbers would make it look. Kind of like saying Lakewood had an 800% increase this week because they went from 1 case to 8.

Umm, have you been following the conversations? All we’ve heard was that only younger people are getting it. That is a total lie, as every single category is increasing exponentially, and the category increasing the *least* is the younger crowd.

[Yard sale]

Umm, have you been following the conversations? All we’ve heard was that only younger people are getting it. That is a total lie, as every single category is increasing exponentially, and the category increasing the *least* is the younger crowd.

The point is that the charts are misleading. When you have 60,000 cases in the under 64 age group and 5,000 cases in the over 64, showing higher percentage growth in the older population presents a misleading picture. Older people are indeed contracting the virus but when younger people have it at a 10-1 ratio that is a good thing for now. Time will tell if it remains focused on the young or spreads as widely to the relatively unaffected older population as well.

[S209]

The point is that the charts are misleading. When you have 60,000 cases in the under 64 age group and 5,000 cases in the over 64, showing higher percentage growth in the older population presents a misleading picture. Older people are indeed contracting the virus but when younger people have it at a 10-1 ratio that is a good thing for now. Time will tell if it remains focused on the young or spreads as widely to the relatively unaffected older population as well.

No again. That chart was put there to *counter* the lie being spread that all of the new cases are young people. Not only *isn’t* that true at all, and older people are still catching it as much as and *more than* they have previously, older people are getting it at *increasingly higher rates* than young people are! That’s terrible news, especially for those who think it’s only dangerous for older people and blows a hole in the side of the argument that all of the new cases are young people.

The chart wasn’t misleading in the slightest. It literally posted the total numbers and statistical increases of all of the age groups very clearly. Try again?

[Lurker]

The point is that the charts are misleading. When you have 60,000 cases in the under 64 age group and 5,000 cases in the over 64, showing higher percentage growth in the older population presents a misleading picture. Older people are indeed contracting the virus but when younger people have it at a 10-1 ratio that is a good thing for now. Time will tell if it remains focused on the young or spreads as widely to the relatively unaffected older population as well.

You want to talk about misleading? Let's start at where you're drawing the line. 50+ is high risk, not 65. Let's move on to percentages. The graphics show 54,848 new infections. 30% are from the high risk 50+ age group. Now, when the governor says there's nothing to worry about because the average age of the newly infected people is 30 and most of the infections are people in their 20's and 30's, that's misleading.

[CountValentine]

They have a record amount of new cases and the spin is that this a good thing because it is younger people?
People have lost their mind. 

[Yard sale]

You want to talk about misleading? Let's start at where you're drawing the line. 50+ is high risk, not 65. Let's move on to percentages. The graphics show 54,848 new infections. 30% are from the high risk 50+ age group. Now, when the governor says there's nothing to worry about because the average age of the newly infected people is 30 and most of the infections are people in their 20's and 30's, that's misleading.

The governor is talking baloney. Of course there’s something to worry about. So far the younger tilt relative to what we saw in April is good news. A chart showing steeper curves when you are starting from a far lower base number is confusing to many and therefore misleading. Show it to your average guy  on the street and ask him to interpret it. He will tell you it means that it’s affecting older people more than the young. See if he gets the little “n” number on the bottom. Then get back to me.

[Lurker]

The governor is talking baloney. Of course there’s something to worry about. So far the younger tilt relative to what we saw in April is good news. A chart showing steeper curves when you are starting from a far lower base number is confusing to many and therefore misleading. Show it to your average guy  on the street and ask him to interpret it. He will tell you it means that it’s affecting older people more than the young. See if he gets the little “n” number on the bottom. Then get back to me.

First of all, you can't dismiss the point of the conversation. The whole point is that the officials in FL are full of it, starting with DeSantis. Second, you want to know what people don't look at at all? Charts, especially when the governor told them not to worry.

[Yard sale]

First of all, you can't dismiss the point of the conversation. The whole point is that the officials in FL are full of it, starting with DeSantis. Second, you want to know what people don't look at at all? Charts, especially when the governor told them not to worry.

Not going to argue with that one. DeSantis, Cuomo, Murphy, Trump, politicians of all stripes are full of it.

[Yard sale]

Nah, let's just put our head in the sand what is happening elsewhere. 8 is 8. When it becomes 16, 16 is 16. When it becomes 32, it's just 32. 64, eh. Wait, it's now 200? Time to worry. Well, it's too late, whatever

8 infected people coming back to Lakewood from Florida with no evidence of significant community spread is putting our head in the sand? Let’s be guided by facts and logic, not hysteria.

[Lurker]

So far the younger tilt relative to what we saw in April is good news.

The counterargument to this is that the tilt is only by percentage, not actual infections. Additionally, younger people spread it quicker, increasing the chance of infection for every high-risk category, not just older people, so it may actually be worse.

The only way you can argue that younger people getting it is a good thing is if you believe there is long-term immunity once you get it. From what I've been reading, it seems the scientific community doesn't believe immunity would last longer than 2 years at most, and could run out in as soon as 3 months. Even if 900,00 people were infected every single day in the US, there would still be millions of infected people with the virus by the time the average person's immunity runs out in a year. That's where vaccines come into play, which is a different conversation. In any event, I find it hard to understand a position where any spread is good, let alone spread in a demographic which speeds up the spreading process.

[Lurker]

8 infected people coming back to Lakewood from Florida with no evidence of significant community spread is putting our head in the sand? Let’s be guided by facts and logic, not hysteria.

The point is, if there are 8 that you know about today, there's a good chance there are more that you don't know of, and there are definitely more coming, considering the amount of OOTs here in FL. Sticking your head in the sand is in reference to the lack of any precautions when you know there are going to be infected people moving around the community. Waiting for confirmed community spread may very well be too late.

[Yard sale]

The point is, if there are 8 that you know about today, there's a good chance there are more that you don't know of, and there are definitely more coming, considering the amount of OOTs here in FL. Sticking your head in the sand is in reference to the lack of any precautions when you know there are going to be infected people moving around the community. Waiting for confirmed community spread may very well be too late.

For a while I was posting the daily number of positives in Lakewood. I stopped them a while ago because they were insignificant. Here are the last week of daily numbers of positives in Lakewood:
 0, 1, 6, 6, 10, 9 , 5.
When I stopped posting a while back the average was in the teens. Let data and logic be the guide rather than unsubstantiated guesswork.

[Ergel]

8 infected people coming back to Lakewood from Florida with no evidence of significant community spread is putting our head in the sand? Let’s be guided by facts and logic, not hysteria.

My understanding was that half (4) of the infected never traveled to FL, is that not true?

[Lurker]

For a while I was posting the daily number of positives in Lakewood. I stopped them a while ago because they were insignificant. Here are the last week of daily numbers of positives in Lakewood:
 0, 1, 6, 6, 10, 9 , 5.
When I stopped posting a while back the average was in the teens. Let data and logic be the guide rather than unsubstantiated guesswork.

When you stopped posting a while back, the rest of the country wasn't surging and the risk of infected people coming from other places was marginal compared to now.

[biobook]

For a while I was posting the daily number of positives in Lakewood. I stopped them a while ago because they were insignificant. Here are the last week of daily numbers of positives in Lakewood:
 0, 1, 6, 6, 10, 9 , 5.
When I stopped posting a while back the average was in the teens. Let data and logic be the guide rather than unsubstantiated guesswork.

Do you have the data from the first surge?  That is, one day it was 0, the next day one case appeared, and then....  How soon after that was the obvious surge?

[Yard sale]

Do you have the data from the first surge?  That is, one day it was 0, the next day one case appeared, and then....  How soon after that was the obvious surge?

IIRC there actually was no data. There were few to no tests available (I think CHEMED Was able to get their hands on 7 tests at that time). There were some, but very few suspected cases in Lakewood  as well as some known exposures over purim which rapidly turned into hundreds of calls and transports in a few days time. There was no doubling time or rapid growth that anyone was able to quantify, just an explosion of cases and people in crisis. It doesn’t even compare to what is going on in the South now with numbers that start to ramp up over a few weeks and eventually grow exponentially. I would guess that purim and Jewish community lifestyle led to an immediate widespread exposure that exploded into an uncontrolled epidemic.

The situation on the ground is very different now. There is widespread testing availability, and doctors are in close communication with each other. There is widespread awareness and different protocol for dealing with hypoxia. A replica of post purim  is almost certainly not the pattern that we would be looking at even if there were to be a second wave.

[Lurker]

Also interesting to note that FL's reported numbers generally drop on Monday, and then work their way back up over the rest of the week. Considering we're starting the week at over 5k, this week's numbers probably won't make anyone feel good.

7 day total from Mon - Sun: 59,039 new cases (8,434/day). That includes 3 days with over 10k, and a new US record for new cases in a day in any state of 11,463 on Sat.

For some context, on June 5, FL had reported 61,487 total cases since March 1. They've added 138,624 in the last 30 days, with 42.5% of those in the last 7 days.

[aygart]

IIRC there actually was no data. There were few to no tests available (I think CHEMED Was able to get their hands on 7 tests at that time). There were some, but very few suspected cases in Lakewood  as well as some known exposures over purim which rapidly turned into hundreds of calls and transports in a few days time. There was no doubling time or rapid growth that anyone was able to quantify, just an explosion of cases and people in crisis. It doesn’t even compare to what is going on in the South now with numbers that start to ramp up over a few weeks and eventually grow exponentially. I would guess that purim and Jewish community lifestyle led to an immediate widespread exposure that exploded into an uncontrolled epidemic.

The situation on the ground is very different now. There is widespread testing availability, and doctors are in close communication with each other. There is widespread awareness and different protocol for dealing with hypoxia. A replica of post purim  is almost certainly not the pattern that we would be looking at even if there were to be a second wave.

I guarantee you that by the time Purim came there were well over 1000 cases in Lakewood, probably a few multiples of that.

[avromie7]

I guarantee you that by the time Purim came there were well over 1000 cases in Lakewood, probably a few multiples of that.

This is exactly why we can't compare what happened then to now.

[boro boy]

Wow Florida is going bad!
Hashem should help everyone