What is FL hiding?

[Lurker]

So what's the source of 140K tests and 11% positive?

I don't believe there is one. I think someone did faulty math and others ran with it.

[Dan]

IINM, FL doesn't actually tell anyone how many tests were administered.  I believe you need to do some math to figure it out, and even then it's tests, not people tested.

Crazy.
Nothing like these pages for FL?
https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/testing

[Dan]

I don't believe there is one. I think someone did faulty math and others ran with it.

No crow for me then

[Lurker]

Crazy.
Nothing like these pages for FL?
https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/testing

You have: https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/ and

FL DOH Dashboard gives total hospitalizations, and after a ton of pressure recently, they said they would start publishing daily info:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

Rebekah Jones has her own dashboard with a bit more info:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/

If they look almost identical, it's because she built both of them.

Of note, the numbers are very much reliant on hospitals self-reporting. Some hospitals have been more forthcoming than others.

[yaakov35]

So what's the source of 140K tests and 11% positive?

That's what media was reporting.... I didn't pull it out of a hat.
https://apnews.com/798f9aab3bb2e5fbf733413a99476d7c
I saw it but I'm sure others are reporting the same.

[Dan]

That's what media was reporting.... I didn't pull it out of a hat.
https://apnews.com/798f9aab3bb2e5fbf733413a99476d7c
I saw it but I'm sure others are reporting the same.

But surely you know the MSM is full of fake news?

[Lurker]

https://apnews.com/798f9aab3bb2e5fbf733413a99476d7c

This is the source for

 

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/12/florida-reports-more-than-15000-new-coronavirus-cases-shattering-record.html

I'm not seeing AP's source, haven't seen anyone else report that number, and I'm not seeing the number corroborated by the FL tracking sites. Could be some bad math by the AP reporters.

[yaakov35]

But surely you know the MSM is full of fake news?

So they're all making it up?
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/07/12/florida-reports-15k-new-cases-smashing-national-record-1299981

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-idUSKCN24D0HE

[yaakov35]

This is the source for

 
I'm not seeing AP's source, haven't seen anyone else report that number, and I'm not seeing the number corroborated by the FL tracking sites. Could be some bad math by the AP reporters.

Its based on this.
Helen Aguirre Ferré (@helenaguirrefer) Tweeted:
Florida COVID positive cases decline for a 3rd day in a row to 11.25% despite a record 142,981 tests results returned in a single day. Average age of those testing positive also decreased: 38 years old. https://twitter.com/helenaguirrefer/status/1282342180829495299?s=20

[yaakov35]

It's fake.
It's not the first time nor the second time he has used fake statistics here.

Wow. Really uncalled for, to just bash me like that when I can be backed up by a simple Google search? Not cool.

[Dan]

Wow. Really uncalled for, to just bash me like that when I can be backed up by a simple Google search? Not cool.

I apologize for this.
But I have been burned in the past relying on things you have posted that weren't accurate. And I'm still not sure what exactly the story is here and why the numbers don't align.

[Lurker]

Its based on this.
Helen Aguirre Ferré (@helenaguirrefer) Tweeted:
Florida COVID positive cases decline for a 3rd day in a row to 11.25% despite a record 142,981 tests results returned in a single day. Average age of those testing positive also decreased: 38 years old. https://twitter.com/helenaguirrefer/status/1282342180829495299?s=20

I love her spin ("positive cases decline" with 15,300 new cases). Also interesting that she's posting those numbers from her personal account. I'm not finding anything from official sources or the tracking sites.

[Lurker]

All of this brings an interesting thought to mind. While going through DeSantis' Communications Director's tweets, I came across language that raised a flag:

despite the largest increase in testing returns to date

and

despite a record 142,981 tests results returned in a single day

and

despite a whopping 95,300 test results reported as of midnight

Notice how she doesn't say tests administered, like the news stories, but tests returned. Now Google anything about Covid testing, and you'll find article after article bemoaning the delay in labs returning Covid tests. My belief (conspiracy theory disclaimer) is that the Governor and his staff are using funny numbers to change the narrative on the positive percentage rates. I have to look into the local numbers, but I believe on a county level, they may be reporting rates based on the day they were given.

This would explain why none of the tracking sites, or even the DoH themselves, have any reference to these 143k tests.

[YankyDoodle]

Assuming his number are correct, 140k means nothing. It's been well documented that FL inflates the number of tests to keep their positivity rate low. They test health care workers multiple times a week, regardless of exposure. They test people multiple times a week to either confirm a positive, check for a false negative, or to confirm recovery. They also do 2 types of test and include both in their count. PCR is what everyone uses. FL also includes antigen tests, which are more likely to give a false negative, and almost always require an additional PCR test for confirmation. I believe FL's 140k test numbers are just that; individual tests, not individual people tested. (I have to find a source for that, although it may have already been posted.)

ETA: the 140k is absolute BS. And the rest of what I wrote still applies to the lower test numbers.

Disclaimer: Again, I can only speak for my hospital system as well as the few others that I am affiliated with and have friends at. We do not test health care workers with any regularity (although it might be a good idea if we did). In fact despite being a frontline MD with significant COVID exposure I cannot get tested unless: 1. I have had exposure to a known COVID+ pt, 2) without appropriate PPE, 3) within the past 2 weeks and 4) I now have symptoms of COVID infection. I cannot get a test without all of these criteria. Even with them it needs to be cleared by the NP manning the tests.

The only time a patient who tested negative in the hospital gets another retest is if they begin showing COVID symptoms. The patients who get retested are those that are + and they are more likely than not to show up + again. All the testing done in my facility are done to best treat and care for patients. None of it is done to improve how the numbers look. I cannot speak for any other testing sites in Florida. We also only use PCR testing exclusively.

[avromie7]

Here ya go:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida

53,672 tests, 19.6% positive.

You're looking at the wrong day, it's 98,708 tests, 18.6% positive. Still not 140k, but a lot closer.

All of this brings an interesting thought to mind. While going through DeSantis' Communications Director's tweets, I came across language that raised a flag:  and  and
Notice how she doesn't say tests administered, like the news stories, but tests returned. Now Google anything about Covid testing, and you'll find article after article bemoaning the delay in labs returning Covid tests. My belief (conspiracy theory disclaimer) is that the Governor and his staff are using funny numbers to change the narrative on the positive percentage rates. I have to look into the local numbers, but I believe on a county level, they may be reporting rates based on the day they were given.

This would explain why none of the tracking sites, or even the DoH themselves, have any reference to these 143k tests.

The number to look at is the number of tests returned, we won't know the positivity rate of the tests administered today until all the results come back.

[Dan]

You're looking at the wrong day, it's 98,708 tests, 18.6% positive. Still not 140k, but a lot closer.

That was added today.
And it means the 140K/11% number was indeed fake news.

[CountValentine]

You're looking at the wrong day, it's 98,708 tests, 18.6% positive. Still not 140k, but a lot closer.

Look at it anyway you want. The fact is they are doing terrible and getting worse.
No longer can saying we didn't know be used as an excuse.

[avromie7]

Look at it anyway you want. The fact is they are doing terrible and getting worse.
No longer can saying we didn't know be used as an excuse.

Why are you screaming at me?

[CountValentine]

Why are you screaming at me?

THIS IS SCREAMING!!! 

[Lurker]

Disclaimer: Again, I can only speak for my hospital system as well as the few others that I am affiliated with and have friends at. We do not test health care workers with any regularity (although it might be a good idea if we did). In fact despite being a frontline MD with significant COVID exposure I cannot get tested unless: 1. I have had exposure to a known COVID+ pt, 2) without appropriate PPE, 3) within the past 2 weeks and 4) I now have symptoms of COVID infection. I cannot get a test without all of these criteria. Even with them it needs to be cleared by the NP manning the tests.

The only time a patient who tested negative in the hospital gets another retest is if they begin showing COVID symptoms. The patients who get retested are those that are + and they are more likely than not to show up + again. All the testing done in my facility are done to best treat and care for patients. None of it is done to improve how the numbers look. I cannot speak for any other testing sites in Florida. We also only use PCR testing exclusively.

I don't think the hospitals are playing any games, and your experience seems to make that pretty clear. The issue with the testing as I understood it was at the pop-up testing sites spread out over the state now. FWIU, they are doing rapid antigen tests, and then follow up PCR tests for negatives, causing many negatives to be counted twice. While the tests themselves have been administered since the end of May, the count confusion seems to only apply since the state decided to combine the tests counts starting July 2.

"We started incorporating the antigen test on May 21. It’s been FDA approved since we first purchased the antigen testing,” said PanCare of Florida Marketing Coordinator Ashley Kelley.

“It’s a rapid test that PanCare is using,” said Florida Department of Health in Bay County’s Public Information Officer Heather Kretzer, “We also have Doc Smiley’s in South Walton County that is testing some of our residents.”

Kretzer said they collected 118 probable cases from from antigen tests between June 4 through June 30 but counted them separately from confirmed cases.

“If you’re positive you’re positive for this test,” said Kelley. “If it shows up negative there’s still that slight chance that it could be a positive. That’s why we do the PCR and send it off to the lab for that additional confirmation of that.”

Now, the state has to decide to count the two types of cases together.