Author Topic: Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)  (Read 1849 times)

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)
« on: July 26, 2020, 12:45:02 PM »
Is there any reason to assume NY won't be hit again?

Here is a growing list of areas where Covid cases resurged after all but dying down. NY still has ~1000 cases/day. We know the timeline from case 1 to rapid spread can be 3 months or longer.

Iran
Louisiana
Israel
Spain
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)
« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2020, 12:57:56 PM »
Is there any reason to assume NY won't be hit again?

Here is a growing list of areas where Covid cases resurged after all but dying down. NY still has ~1000 cases/day. We know the timeline from case 1 to rapid spread can be 3 months or longer.

Iran
Louisiana
Israel
Spain
I could think of a couple.

There are still very strict restrictions in place which make it unlikely for exponential spread.

Contact tracing which supposedly has been very effective.

Some sort of built up immunity, over 20 percent in NYC which will definitely help keep the numbers low.

Offline moish

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Re: Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)
« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2020, 05:10:31 PM »
Is there any reason to assume NY won't be hit again?

Here is a growing list of areas where Covid cases resurged after all but dying down. NY still has ~1000 cases/day. We know the timeline from case 1 to rapid spread can be 3 months or longer.

Iran
Louisiana
Israel
Spain
I can only speak for Israel, that the numbers went up as they relaxed regulations. We saw an immediate impact.
For all intents and purposes, NY is pretty much open, certainly in the Jewish communities, with hardly mask wearing or social distancing. Yet we haven't seen a major surge in cases.

Offline Moishebatchy

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Re: Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)
« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2020, 06:23:48 PM »
I can only speak for Israel, that the numbers went up as they relaxed regulations. We saw an immediate impact.
For all intents and purposes, NY is pretty much open, certainly in the Jewish communities, with hardly mask wearing or social distancing. Yet we haven't seen a major surge in cases.

Huge difference between Israel and NY: NY had people dying by the thousands, while Israel had hardly any infection the first time around. So once things “open,” Israel has plenty of vulnerable cannon fodder, while NY has already been “pruned,” so to speak.

Or, as I said to someone who was bragging how amazing NY is now, that everything is open and nobody is getting affected: “Saying that you’re immune to forest fires simply because anything flammable that you own has already been burned isn’t really much to brag about.” NY isn’t seeing a major surge because almost everyone who could be the victim of such a surge is already dead, unfortunately.

Offline moish

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Re: Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)
« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2020, 05:59:03 AM »
Huge difference between Israel and NY: NY had people dying by the thousands, while Israel had hardly any infection the first time around. So once things “open,” Israel has plenty of vulnerable cannon fodder, while NY has already been “pruned,” so to speak.

Or, as I said to someone who was bragging how amazing NY is now, that everything is open and nobody is getting affected: “Saying that you’re immune to forest fires simply because anything flammable that you own has already been burned isn’t really much to brag about.” NY isn’t seeing a major surge because almost everyone who could be the victim of such a surge is already dead, unfortunately.
I completely agree with that. I wasn't addressing the underlying reasons, but rather the OP's question as to if there was any reason to assume NY wouldn't be hit again based on what he saw from other locations including Israel. I don't know whether NY will be hit again, but pointing out the difference between it and Israel

Offline Happyguy

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Re: Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2020, 07:19:50 AM »
Iran
Louisiana
Israel
Spain

Australia

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Re: Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)
« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2020, 07:24:11 AM »
Australia

Not the entire country. And they seem to have crazy lockdown and quarantine rules for interstate travel. And no one is allowed to leave the country without permission. Crazy.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Happyguy

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Re: Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)
« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2020, 07:43:10 AM »
They seem to have crazy lockdown and quarantine rules for interstate travel. And no one is allowed to leave the country without permission. Crazy.

Well they just want to avoid being like the US

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Re: Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)
« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2020, 08:22:30 AM »
Well they just want to avoid being like the US

Yet in certain areas they are having flare ups.

רבות מחשבות....
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)
« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2020, 11:19:56 AM »
NY isn’t seeing a major surge because almost everyone who could be the victim of such a surge is already dead, unfortunately.
That's what people said about Iran & Spain
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)
« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2020, 11:21:39 AM »
That's what people said about Iran & Spain

IINM Spain is having it now in a different, previously mostly unaffected region.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: Covid Resurgences Around The World (Second Waves)
« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2020, 11:25:55 AM »
IINM Spain is having it now in a different, previously mostly unaffected region.
Nope it's widespread throughout the country
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים