Author Topic: Will Schools be Opening in September?  (Read 16759 times)

Offline haltkup

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Will Schools be Opening in September?
« on: July 12, 2020, 06:35:02 PM »
Just listened to Gov.Cuomo on schools and have the feeling that they will not be allowing schools to open in September.

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« Last Edit: July 12, 2020, 06:46:24 PM by Dan »

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2020, 06:55:14 PM »
We're nowhere close to having this under control. I don't see how schools can safely reopen at large.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2020, 06:58:36 PM »
It appears likely FL & TX will suffer an Italy style catastrophe and most schools in the country won't reopen.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2020, 07:00:22 PM »
It appears likely FL & TX will suffer an Italy style catastrophe and most schools in the country won't reopen.
You could call it an NYC style catastrophe at this point...

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2020, 07:01:35 PM »
You could call it an NYC style catastrophe at this point...
Except I think it will be worse.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Dan

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2020, 07:08:24 PM »
Was Italy worse than NYC?
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2020, 07:09:35 PM »
Was Italy worse than NYC?
Sure seemed that way.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #7 on: July 12, 2020, 07:10:46 PM »
Was Italy worse than NYC?
I believe on a per capita basis, parts of Italy were worse than NYC. I don't believe there are documented cases in NYC of people who needed a ventilator being denied one, for example.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #8 on: July 12, 2020, 07:12:25 PM »
Was Italy worse than NYC?
I thought so. A lot of people in nursing homes dying isn't the same as widespread failure of hospitals resulting in many unnecessary deaths of 50 year olds
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Dan

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2020, 07:13:41 PM »
Sure seemed that way.
Italy population: 60.36MM
NY population: 19.45MM

Italy COVID deaths: 34.9K
NY COVID deaths: 32K
----------------------------------------------
Epicenters:

Lombardy population: 10.06MM
NYC population: 8.39MM

Lombardy COVID deaths: 16.7K
NYC COVID deaths: 22.8K
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #10 on: July 12, 2020, 07:17:40 PM »
Italy population: 60.36MM
NY population: 19.45MM

Italy COVID deaths: 34.9K
NY COVID deaths: 32K
----------------------------------------------
Epicenters:

Lombardy population: 10.06MM
NYC population: 8.39MM

Lombardy COVID deaths: 16.7K
NYC COVID deaths: 22.8K
Would you happen to have how many cases?
All I was going on was the reports about hospitals and lockdowns.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2020, 07:17:58 PM »
Italy population: 60.36MM
NY population: 19.45MM

Italy COVID deaths: 34.9K
NY COVID deaths: 32K
----------------------------------------------
Epicenters:

Lombardy population: 10.06MM
NYC population: 8.39MM

Lombardy COVID deaths: 16.7K
NYC COVID deaths: 22.8K
Crazy. Didn't realize. And the NYC deaths are almost certainly under counted.

Offline Dan

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2020, 07:19:30 PM »
Would you happen to have how many cases?
All I was going on was the reports about hospitals and lockdowns.
Cases are fairly irreverent, especially back then when getting a test was basically impossible.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline Dan

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2020, 07:20:00 PM »
Crazy. Didn't realize. And the NYC deaths are almost certainly under counted.
COVID deaths in most places are undercounted.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2020, 07:21:06 PM »
Cases are fairly irreverent, especially back then when getting a test was basically impossible.
It does matter if the hospitals were overwhelmed and that cost lives.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2020, 07:22:27 PM »
One of the best ways to estimate total cases is to count the deaths and multiply that according to the IFR
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Dan

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2020, 07:22:47 PM »
It does matter if the hospitals were overwhelmed and that cost lives.
So you want to know hospitalization/ICU numbers, not COVID positive case numbers.
And how full hospitals and ICUs were.

That's tougher data to dig up, where's @TimT anyway?
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline Dan

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2020, 07:23:33 PM »
One of the best ways to estimate total cases is to count the deaths and multiply that according to the IFR
Right, but that assumes each location has the same undercounting of COVID deaths when in reality it varies greatly.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #18 on: July 12, 2020, 07:25:16 PM »
So you want to know hospitalization/ICU numbers, not COVID positive case numbers.
And how full hospitals and ICUs were.

That's tougher data to dig up, where's @TimT anyway?
That would work better but thought it was asking to much.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Will Schools be Opening in September?
« Reply #19 on: July 12, 2020, 07:28:33 PM »
Right, but that assumes each location has the same undercounting of COVID deaths when in reality it varies greatly.
Also, it's pretty likely that NYC had a greater death rate than most places.