Author Topic: Lakewood covid cases  (Read 522519 times)

Offline avromie7

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #160 on: August 26, 2020, 03:52:13 PM »
This is highest number recorded in Lakewood since at least 6/1. (That's when I began tracking.)
Do you have the numbers for every day so we can see the 7 day average?
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Euclid

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Lakewood cases
« Reply #161 on: August 26, 2020, 03:57:48 PM »
Do you have the numbers for every day so we can see the 7 day average?
Not sure what a 7 day average is going to tell you. There's a clear spike in official numbers. But even more worrisome are the numbers coming out of the Chemed tracker (don't have the numbers, but multiple doctors are sounding the alarm.)

Offline aygart

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #162 on: August 26, 2020, 04:02:01 PM »
This is highest number recorded in Lakewood since at least 6/1. (That's when I began tracking.)
There were other days with such numbers that were later revised down.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline dasmo801

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #163 on: August 26, 2020, 04:06:36 PM »
Do you have the numbers for every day so we can see the 7 day average?

7 day average is 8.7. Highest since 6/16.

Offline dasmo801

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #164 on: August 26, 2020, 04:10:29 PM »
There were other days with such numbers that were later revised down.
There was a day with 25 (8/8) which was revised down over the next three days.

Offline dasmo801

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #165 on: August 26, 2020, 04:20:54 PM »
Do you have the numbers for every day so we can see the 7 day average?


Offline Lurker

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #166 on: August 26, 2020, 04:28:59 PM »


OCHD numbers confuse me. They routinely remove cases from their count. Is it because they weren't really positive, or because they belonged in a different county?
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Offline flyingace

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #167 on: August 26, 2020, 05:12:01 PM »
Not sure what a 7 day average is going to tell you. There's a clear spike in official numbers. But even more worrisome are the numbers coming out of the Chemed tracker (don't have the numbers, but multiple doctors are sounding the alarm.)
This!!!

Offline Yard sale

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #168 on: August 26, 2020, 05:17:59 PM »
Not sure what a 7 day average is going to tell you. There's a clear spike in official numbers. But even more worrisome are the numbers coming out of the Chemed tracker (don't have the numbers, but multiple doctors are sounding the alarm.)
Agree. I’d like to see if there is significant community or tertiary spread being reported because as long as the infections are primary or secondary (family member etc.) herd immunity can still be assumed. If there is significant tertiary spread we have a big problem on our hands. I’m still a believer in herd immunity but we should be keeping our eyes open. Now is not the time for immunocompromised or elderly people who do not have recent antibody results to be attending indoor weddings or large public gatherings until there is more clarity.

« Last Edit: August 26, 2020, 08:12:10 PM by Yard sale »

Offline Euclid

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Lakewood cases
« Reply #169 on: August 26, 2020, 11:55:31 PM »
Agree. I’d like to see if there is significant community or tertiary spread being reported because as long as the infections are primary or secondary (family member etc.) herd immunity can still be assumed. If there is significant tertiary spread we have a big problem on our hands. I’m still a believer in herd immunity but we should be keeping our eyes open. Now is not the time for immunocompromised or elderly people who do not have recent antibody results to be attending indoor weddings or large public gatherings until there is more clarity.

I know someone who got it from her friend who got it from her boss (who got it from?).

(That's tertiary for those keeping "score" at home )

Offline incendia

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #170 on: August 27, 2020, 07:03:26 AM »
I know there's a sentiment in town that people shouldn't test even when feeling ill lest it lead to another shutdown. This sentiment will only become stronger once schools open and testing could lead to a school being shut.

A perverse and dangerous case of Godhart's law

Offline aygart

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #171 on: August 27, 2020, 08:33:23 AM »
I know someone who got it from her friend who got it from her boss (who got it from?).

(That's tertiary for those keeping "score" at home )
It is in an email from a local pediatrician to patients and others who signed up for the newsletter. Someone changed the first word of the paragraph from CHEMED to Doctors but the rest is verbatim.

This is the prior paragraph.
Quote
We recently brought to your attention that, after several months of extraordinary quietness in Lakewood, there was an uptick in new cases of COVID-19 illness in the Lakewood Kehilla. At this point, there has been a significant number of new cases reported
(20+ cases last week and 35+ cases so far this week).

I think if there was 20+ new cases on a weekly basis after a bit people would start caring a drop. Less than that definitely not.

If we reached the point that even @yaakov35 is calling for a lockdown and fearmongering then maybe we should open our eyes.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Yard sale

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #172 on: August 27, 2020, 09:09:15 AM »
Just spoke to a Lakewood doctor. There's a huge outbreak going on, with scores of cases being reported daily. And probably not even the full picture because many people are just not testing because they don't want to quarantine.
35+ in a week is a vastly different picture than ‘scores’ each day.

Offline skv

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #173 on: August 27, 2020, 09:15:51 AM »
anyone have the letter from the doctor that everyone is referring to? I'd love to see it.

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #174 on: August 27, 2020, 09:19:12 AM »
anyone have the letter from the doctor that everyone is referring to? I'd love to see it.
PM'd

Offline Lurker

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #175 on: August 27, 2020, 09:22:46 AM »
35+ in a week is a vastly different picture than ‘scores’ each day.

35+ so far this week as of the writing of the letter. And let's not nitpick here. We're well aware of how fast this virus spreads, and over 55 cases in 10 days is enough to start sounding the alarms. The alternative is to "wait and see" and we'll find out for sure after everything gets shut down again...
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Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #176 on: August 27, 2020, 09:23:19 AM »
35+ in a week is a vastly different picture than ‘scores’ each day.
Yeah. I assume he didn't mean the literal Abraham Lincoln definition. Relative to the past few months it's a very significant amount.

Offline aygart

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #177 on: August 27, 2020, 10:33:49 AM »
35+ so far this week as of the writing of the letter. And let's not nitpick here. We're well aware of how fast this virus spreads, and over 55 cases in 10 days is enough to start sounding the alarms. The alternative is to "wait and see" and we'll find out for sure after everything gets shut down again...
That just about double from one week to the next. We all know where this goes if it stays on this trajectory. Will it stay? I hope not, but to discount the possibility is foolhardy.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #178 on: August 27, 2020, 10:35:27 AM »
Visibly Jewish

Offline Yard sale

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #179 on: August 27, 2020, 01:00:43 PM »
That just about double from one week to the next. We all know where this goes if it stays on this trajectory. Will it stay? I hope not, but to discount the possibility is foolhardy.
I agree that vigilance is called for. We have had several of these increases in the past few months only to to have been false alarms. This time anecdotal evidence seems to give more credence to the trend. I just don’t like throwing around numbers. 30 (or 50) a week is simply a caution sign. ‘Scores’ each day is a likely pandemic resurgence . Let’s keep things very specific.