Author Topic: Lakewood covid cases  (Read 522499 times)

Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #200 on: August 27, 2020, 11:20:42 PM »
You may be technically correct, but one thing this pandemic has taught us is that "forcing" people to do something isn't going to accomplish anything.

The best (only?) approach for the current situation is to raise the alarm and remind people who "know" that they should be more careful to be vigilant and more conscious of it I.e. people who've been lax because they were aware that there have been no cases in Lakewood.

@Yard sale is correct, at the current numbers there is no point in trying to "waste bullets" and strong arm people to do something which they won't listen to anyways.
+1000

It seems to be nearly useless to try and convince those who are in denial mode to try and be a little more cautious. For those who would try to be cautious but let down their guard during this period of calm, and to those who aren’t completely set either way, here is some new information.

PSA

My father spoke to one of the more prominent Lakewood doctors tonight (feel free to PM for the name). He informed my father that there is seemingly a large silent outbreak beginning to circulate in Lakewood once more, after months of virtually no spread. He said that 2 weeks ago there were suddenly 12 new cases (a spike after many weeks of far less). Last week, 25. This week, already more than 40 confirmed new cases as of this morning.. he also mentioned that according to his experience of speaking to contacts who were exposed, most people (even with some mild symptoms) are choosing not to test. These numbers also don’t account for the incubation period in people who may not have developed symptoms, asymptomatic carriers, and people who are still awaiting results. He believes that we are a lot closer to March than most currently believe, but doctors are worried about sounding the alarm because of the possible damage to their credibility.

One more point- he doesn’t believe there is ANY evidence that new cases are milder. Most of those tested are somewhat younger and there haven’t been that many new confirmed cases yet, but this is how it started originally as well... there were hundreds or thousands infected before the first hospitalization.

Again, if you want to bury your head in the sand, go ahead. This is a PSA for those who want to hear legitimate updates.
Quote from: YitzyS
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Offline Yard sale

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #201 on: August 28, 2020, 01:49:50 AM »
It really shouldn’t have to be a choice between sounding the alarm and risking their reputation. Communicating the numbers to the public and how those infected contracted covid (chasuna, etc.) without recommending a specific course of action would probably be an effective method of alerting the public without risking their reputation.

As far as his assumption that there is a wave of infections as in March, jumping to those kind of conclusions without clear evidence is the kind of thing that  will damage his credibility. I really don’t think that this is how it started in March. Take a look back at the early threads and you will see that there was actually a very short lag time between the first reports of symptomatic people in Lakewood  a couple days after purim, to the first positives the week after, to multiple deaths and transports a few days later. So I wouldn’t think we are in any way in a situation comparable to March.

We still do not have any indication that Lakewood is still at risk of widespread community spread. It’s true that it wouldn’t shock me if there were quite a few positives that aren’t coming in for testing but until we see evidence of community secondary spread, or massive numbers of infections that would indicate such, there really is no basis to panic and call it March all over again....

« Last Edit: August 28, 2020, 01:54:19 AM by Yard sale »

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #202 on: August 28, 2020, 10:10:06 AM »

Offline Euclid

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Lakewood cases
« Reply #203 on: August 28, 2020, 10:13:35 AM »
https://hamodia.com/2020/08/27/lakewood-sees-uptick-covid-cases/

Quote
Dr. Dovid Friedman, CEO of the CHEMED health center, urged vigilance in light of the recent trend.

“It is a concern that numbers have gone up,” he told Hamodia. “Fortunately we are seeing minimal to moderate disease, but as cases increase so does concern that we will end up with patients who present more severe cases. We also do not want to see the community negatively impacted in any way.”

Wow, a doctor finally going on record.

(I do not envy the position of the doctors. They're damned if they do, damned if they don't. If they sound the alarm and people are careful and the impact of this outbreak is contained, then they look like they overreacted. It's paradoxical.)
« Last Edit: August 28, 2020, 10:32:04 AM by Euclid »

Offline aygart

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #204 on: August 28, 2020, 11:10:56 AM »
From http://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2020/08/thursday-august-27-news-updates-lakewood.html
Sites like hefkervelt are from the primary causes for the issues he is complaining about. If you dismantle the establishment then don't be surprised that it is not there for you when you want it.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #205 on: August 28, 2020, 11:12:51 AM »
Sites like hefkervelt are from the primary causes for the issues he is complaining about. If you dismantle the establishment then don't be surprised that it is not there for you when you want it.
I agree with this in general, although HV hasn't been very much anti establishment for a while already. I think when TakebackLakewood stopped posting HV also stopped.

Offline aygart

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #206 on: August 28, 2020, 11:14:47 AM »
I agree with this in general, although HV hasn't been very much anti establishment for a while already. I think when TakebackLakewood stopped posting HV also stopped.
HH?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #207 on: August 28, 2020, 11:16:04 AM »

Offline aygart

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #208 on: August 28, 2020, 11:19:08 AM »
HefkerVelt.
I wasn't trying to correct you. I was giving an example. Yes they have calmed down.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #209 on: August 28, 2020, 11:20:49 AM »
I wasn't trying to correct you. I was giving an example. Yes they have calmed down.
Ah yeah. Can't mistake them as shilling for the establishment (cough TLS cough) now, but they're not as virulent anymore.

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #210 on: August 28, 2020, 01:49:45 PM »
7 new cases via OCHD.

Offline aygart

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #211 on: August 28, 2020, 01:50:41 PM »
Ah yeah. Can't mistake them as shilling for the establishment (cough TLS cough) now, but they're not as virulent anymore.
But the damage has already been done.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #212 on: August 28, 2020, 04:07:05 PM »
50 new cases this week via CHEMED tracker.

Offline Yard sale

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #213 on: August 28, 2020, 06:33:59 PM »
50 new cases this week via CHEMED tracker.
Significant but not alarming. Even if 50% of the population of Lakewood has already contracted Covid (which is way too generous a number) it is all but assured that there are dozens if not hundreds of people who never had Covid who are going to be in settings with someone who is positive on any given day and some will become infected.

That being said, not everyone should be putting themselves or their relatives in these settings. Someone elderly or vulnerable may want to reconsider attending large Chasunas, or davening in a 800 person minyan in yeshiva for yomim noraim given what we are currently seeing....
« Last Edit: August 28, 2020, 06:43:33 PM by Yard sale »

Offline shulemw

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #214 on: August 28, 2020, 06:42:57 PM »
Need to know details if lets say there was 3 families with 6-7 cases each then its not so alarming.

if its 50 cases each in a seperate family then its much more alarming

Offline Lurker

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #215 on: August 29, 2020, 08:47:52 PM »
Significant but not alarming. Even if 50% of the population of Lakewood has already contracted Covid (which is way too generous a number) it is all but assured that there are dozens if not hundreds of people who never had Covid who are going to be in settings with someone who is positive on any given day and some will become infected.

That being said, not everyone should be putting themselves or their relatives in these settings. Someone elderly or vulnerable may want to reconsider attending large Chasunas, or davening in a 800 person minyan in yeshiva for yomim noraim given what we are currently seeing....

The problem with your attitude is that by the time the numbers become "alarming," great damage has already been done to too many people. Just wear a damn mask!
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #216 on: August 29, 2020, 08:59:02 PM »
3 new cases via OCHD.

Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #217 on: August 29, 2020, 09:02:57 PM »
A guy who sits right next to my brother first Seder tested positive after having shortness of breath and missed his sister’s wedding.

A friend I met on Shabbos told me his brother caught it from his wife, who caught it at a wedding. Took her a week to develop symptoms, him a couple more days. Both sick in bed, low 20s.

A wedding another brother attended this past week had half of chasunah and guests outdoors, because the father of the Kallah tested positive right before. Officially he didn’t attend, but his family, who was obviously exposed to him, all stayed outdoors with social distancing.

R’ Malkiel’s gabbai (Lemberger) told a friend of mine on Thursday he was at a wedding this past week where a Hatzalah member approached an attendee and yelled at him to leave immediately. The member told the gabbai that this man had called Hatzalah less than 48 hours earlier with trouble breathing, and subsequently tested positive for COVID.

There is a theme here, and it’s not shuls. What is the heter/chiyuv to be irresponsible at weddings?
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Offline SayWhat

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #218 on: August 29, 2020, 09:09:43 PM »
That being said, not everyone should be putting themselves or their relatives in these settings. Someone elderly or vulnerable may want to reconsider attending large Chasunas, or davening in a 800 person minyan in yeshiva for yomim noraim given what we are currently seeing....
The Nazi's plan for a master race included letting the sick and infirm die to strengthen the gene pool. It seems some in our community have taken the same approach, "I'm in good health why should I worry about Corona"   

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #219 on: August 29, 2020, 09:52:40 PM »
The Nazi's plan for a master race included letting the sick and infirm die to strengthen the gene pool. It seems some in our community have taken the same approach, "I'm in good health why should I worry about Corona"
Say what?