Lakewood covid cases

[Euclid]

https://twitter.com/OneJerseySchorr/status/1321868350633484295

[Lurker]

Hakaras hatov goes a long way. People generally like to complain, so positive feedback stands out and is much appreciated. Tell your friends to write in, tell your kids, tell your kids' friends, even tell the people from the shul you won't go to. There is an opportunity here to build on positivity. Take it.

[S209]

There are 50 people now and people are going in and out daily so from your number of 10% there should be every day a few Covid deaths.....
A few months ago you are correct.
As of now the number of deaths is not near 10% at all

Just to recap with some real numbers:
According to Bikur Cholim 10 days ago

Second wave stats per Bikur Cholim of Lakewood:

130 hospitalizations
112 discharged
5 niftar R"L
15 currently hospitalized
6 in serious/critical condition

Source: https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/10/a-gizinte-vinter.html

So as of October 21, there were 130 patients hospitalized since September 12. 5 had passed away. 15 more were still in the hospital.

Since then, *at least* 4 more have r”l passed away (Hirsch, Waldman, Brecher, Waxman).

130 hospitalizations.
*At least* 9 deaths so far r”l.

Tell me again how the rate isn’t closer to 10% than 1%?

(Hint: 1% death rate would mean one death)

[S209]

@shulemw pinging you because you aren’t so active here

[Euclid]

69 new cases via OCHD.

After many days (weeks?) of hovering in the teens or less. Hopefully this is just a blip; possibly related to the general uptick in NJ?

[PlatinumGuy]

69 new cases via OCHD.

After many days (weeks?) of hovering in the teens or less. Hopefully this is just a blip; possibly related to the general uptick in NJ?

Probably people were only doing the rapid tests for the few weeks the spotlight was on Lakewood.

[YitzyS]

I'm not sure which is the correct thread to post this in, so I'll post this here.

Rav Yisroel Reisman spoke this week about mass testing, and I thought people might find what he said interesting, so I'm posting it. (I bolded one line that I thought was aimed at Smith.) h/t @Yehudaa

I want to end with a pitch, a request, with a desire. I am talking to all of you in NY especially in Brooklyn. We, Klal Yisrael find ourselves in a very difficult time. The boys and girls who are out of Yeshivos can’t do it, they can’t handle it. It is just not doable. For the Ruchnios it is terrible. Their Yeridos in Davening is awful. Really really terrible. We need a Yeshua. We have to help ourselves.

The government in its infinite wisdom is working with positivity rates. Positivity rates means that if 50 people take Covid tests and 5 are positive then 10% are positive. Ai there are 100,000 people in this area? It doesn’t matter. It goes by those who take a test. If we can convince 1,000 people to take tests and 5 are positive then that is .5% (a half of a percent). Then everything is suddenly good. Then things are better. This is the way the government works.

What has happened over this last period of time is that in Williamsburg they increased testing dramatically. The Rebbes says and the Chassidim do. Williamsburg in now a white zone. In Kiryas Yoel they increased testing dramatically and they went from 12% down to under 2%. Boro Park has decided to increase their testing and they have done it. There are vans and trailers all over testing people and their positivity rate has gone down dramatically. The highest positivity rate in the red cluster is in Flatbush in 11230, is in our area. It is a Davar Pele. The bigger Pele is that in one day this week there were 15 positives in 11230. But that represented a high % because well under 100 people had tested. We need to increase testing. The Rebbe says and the Chassidim do.

The Bnei Torah need to understand that we need to get the boys back to Yeshiva. People are afraid to test. They hear about all kinds of Meshugaim on the internet saying all kinds of things. We need to test. We need to test often. We need to test properly. Certainly those who know that they have antibodies. The government is saying you should test even if you have antibodies. We are not playing tricks. They are saying that. We need to be able to do it. I beg all of you. There will be testing sites by Rabbi Landau’s Shul, by the Agudah of Avenue L, by the Navi Shiur on Motzoei Shabbos. Be tested. Don’t be afraid. Be tested.

[Euclid]

Probably people were only doing the rapid tests for the few weeks the spotlight was on Lakewood.

-1
People were definitely getting PCR (nasal or spit) tests done.

[PlatinumGuy]

-1
People were definitely getting PCR (nasal or spit) tests done.

People who were likely to have it or people who were trying to spew the positivity rates? P.s. I don't think saliva is PCR, or at least isn't counted in the state statistics. I could be wrong.

[Euclid]

People who were likely to have it or people who were trying to spew the positivity rates? P.s. I don't think saliva is PCR, or at least isn't counted in the state statistics. I could be wrong.

Saliva tests are PCR tests. AFAIK, there are only two types of tests, PCR and antigen; rapids are antigen and the rest are PCR.

Also, they'd better be counted in official statistics, the saliva tests are coming direct from the government.

[PlatinumGuy]

Saliva tests are PCR tests. AFAIK, there are only two types of tests, PCR and antigen; rapids are antigen and the rest are PCR.

Also, they'd better be counted in official statistics, the saliva tests are coming direct from the government.

Saliva test use loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP)

[Euclid]

Saliva test use loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP)

TIL, thanks!

To your point though, the saliva tests had better be included in official stats because those are the tests that the govt dispatched to Lakewood.

[PlatinumGuy]

TIL, thanks!

To your point though, the saliva tests had better be included in official stats because those are the tests that the govt dispatched to Lakewood.

That's the idea... they specifically used tests that don't show up... the government is just as happy for the stats to stay low

[flyingace]

That's the idea... they specifically used tests that don't show up... the government is just as happy for the stats to stay low

How would that lower the positivity rate, then?

[avromie7]

69 new cases via OCHD.

After many days (weeks?) of hovering in the teens or less. Hopefully this is just a blip; possibly related to the general uptick in NJ?

Most likely a data dump, we'll know for sure in a few days. Anecdotally, I don't know of anyone getting COVID since yom tov, the number of cases definitely dropped back down to near zero.

[Euclid]

Most likely a data dump, we'll know for sure in a few days. Anecdotally, I don't know of anyone getting COVID since yom tov, the number of cases definitely dropped back down to near zero.

Same.

[PlatinumGuy]

How would that lower the positivity rate, then?

If the positivity rates are only counting PCR, and people with symptoms and/or exposure take saliva/rapid yet people in surveys like schools and nursing homes take PCR, it's bound to go down. I don't know exactly what happened, but that theory was mentioned here earlier.

[flyingace]

If the positivity rates are only counting PCR, and people with symptoms and/or exposure take saliva/rapid yet people in surveys like schools and nursing homes take PCR, it's bound to go down. I don't know exactly what happened, but that theory was mentioned here earlier.

The schools are doing saliva. The State was running saliva testing since Chol Hamoed. I can't imagine they are not counting the results.

[avromie7]

If the positivity rates are only counting PCR, and people with symptoms and/or exposure take saliva/rapid yet people in surveys like schools and nursing homes take PCR, it's bound to go down. I don't know exactly what happened, but that theory was mentioned here earlier.

That is definitely not what happened. They were trying to get anyone off the street to take the saliva test.

[PlatinumGuy]

That is definitely not what happened. They were trying to get anyone off the street to take the saliva test.

That helps identify and isolate positive cases, doesn't mean it was counted in state stats.