Lakewood covid cases

[iluv2travel]

If the prevalence of cases go up, the prevalence of reinfection will go up...

Is that really so? I'm sure there is data being collected on reinfection as it has been a point of contention almost from the start.

What people are saying is because they're misinformed.

Old story. (Unfortunately.)

[PlatinumGuy]

Is that really so? I'm sure there is data being collected on reinfection as it has been a point of contention almost from the start.

I'm not aware of any data that shows reinfection is more likely now than it was before (other than the Novavax vague self-serving PR).

If there are 100 cases, there will be 1 reinfection, 1000 cases, 10 reinfections. (The numbers aren't exact but obviously the more cases the more of them will be reinfection even if the proportion stays the same)

[iluv2travel]

I'm not aware of any data yet that shows reinfection is more likely now than it was before (other than the Novavax vague self-serving PR).

FTFY

If there are 100 cases, there will be 1 reinfection, 1000 cases, 10 reinfections. (The numbers aren't exact but obviously the more cases the more of them will be reinfection even if the proportion stays the same)

OK, understood - percentage remains the same but actual number is higher.

[iluv2travel]

"Current infections are reinfections, and they're very sporadic" is another way of saying "COVID is over, leave me alone and let me go on with life".

 

AKA COVID Fatigue

[dasmo801]

Urgent community alert from CHEMED:
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2021/01/urgent-community-alert-from-chemed.html

[AsherO]

AKA COVID Fatigue

More like resignation. I'm fatigued too, but I'm not giving up.

[Jellybelly]

There is zero evidence that has to do with anything. The whole majority immune theory was simply a fiction.

Any other theory why it comes and goes In lkwd?

[aygart]

Any other theory why it comes and goes In lkwd?

As waves hit people become more careful.

[Jellybelly]

As waves hit people become more careful.

So according to the experts on this thread, where are we currently holding?

[Dan]

Any other theory why it comes and goes In lkwd?

That's how pandemics work.

[iluv2travel]

More like resignation. I'm fatigued too, but I'm not giving up.

👍🏻.  But some people do resign if they are fatigued . So however you call it we arrive to the same place.

[PlatinumGuy]

Any other theory why it comes and goes In lkwd?

The human mind isn't capable of understanding exponential growth intuitively. As the Danish PM succinctly put it:

imagine sitting in the top row of Copenhagen’s Parken Stadium, a soccer arena with a capacity of 38,000 people. A dripping tap is filling it up, one drop the first minute, two drops the second, four drops the third. At that rate, Frederiksen said, the park will be filled in 44 minutes. But it will seem almost empty for the first 42 minutes.

Covid was seeded around Dec/Jan. It grows exponentially but doesn't become obvious until March, peaks in April, behavior changes and it subsidizes, only to start the process again and become obvious now in Jan.

The first wave took 3 months to gather and even minimal safety precautions are enough to make the second wave take longer to gather.

[AsherO]

So according to the experts on this thread, where are we currently holding?

That's like saying "stocks go up and down, please predict for me where where holding".

👍🏻.  But some people do resign if they are fatigued . So however you call it we arrive to the same place.

But they feel it on their conscience to acknowledge that their own resignation can endanger other people, so they either make claims:

• Implying the pandemic is over
• Downplaying the pandemic
• Blame it on the community and that they aren't the only ones

[AsherO]

The first wave took 3 months to gather and even minimal safety precautions are enough to make the second wave take longer to gather.

Gather?

[PlatinumGuy]

So according to the experts on this thread, where are we currently holding?

Now it depends on human behavior. Will Lakewood look like Ireland or like Italy in March? There is more imperative than ever to shut down schools and everything, but it's difficult to predict how long exactly it will take for that to happen.

כִּי קָרוֹב אֵלֶיךָ הַדָּבָר מְאֹד בְּפִיךָ וּבִלְבָבְךָ לַעֲשֹׂתוֹ.

99% of our Covid problems are entirely manmade. We did it to ourselves.

Gather?

Grow? Assemble? I can't think of the right word.

[Jellybelly]

Gather?

They sit around and chill and when they get the prearranged signal,
 they go ahead and wreak havoc everywhere

[Jellybelly]

Now it depends on human behavior. Will Lakewood look like Ireland or like Italy in March? There is more imperative than ever to shut down schools and everything, but it's difficult to predict how long exactly it will take for that to happen.

כִּי קָרוֹב אֵלֶיךָ הַדָּבָר מְאֹד בְּפִיךָ וּבִלְבָבְךָ לַעֲשֹׂתוֹ.

99% of our Covid problems are entirely manmade. We did it to ourselves.
Grow? Assemble? I can't think of the right word.

Very nice to bring in a passuk,
 let’s go a step further and say that obviously there is some type of message that we’re supposed to be getting and we’re not getting it

[yelped]

Very nice to bring in a passuk,
 let’s go a step further and say that obviously there is some type of message that we’re supposed to be getting and we’re not getting it

You don't have to look too far to see the message. 

Think about how your every action affects others, have consideration for the other, and live with Emunah and Chochma.

[PlatinumGuy]

Very nice to bring in a passuk,
 let’s go a step further and say that obviously there is some type of message that we’re supposed to be getting and we’re not getting it

We may as well set up a separate thread for this conversation which is coming  up all the time, but even though we don't come close to understanding the genetic process of babies, we don't consider every puppy being born as a supernatural Yad Hashem. Covid and the waves are understood more than most illnesses, not less. It's just more tempting to throw out all scientific knowledge instead of scrutinizing the true from the false and doing our protective hishtadlus accordingly.

The message we do see is how elaborately Hashem created nature originally, and how fallible humans are comparatively.

 ,כִּי אֶרְאֶה שָׁמֶיךָ מַעֲשֵׂי אֶצְבְּעֹתֶיךָ יָרֵחַ וְכוֹכָבִים אֲשֶׁר כּוֹנָנְתָּה מָה אֱנוֹשׁ כִּי תִזְכְּרֶנּוּ וּבֶן אָדָם כִּי תִפְקְדֶנּוּ.

You don't have to look too far to see the message 

Yeah. Be careful!!!

[iluv2travel]

99% of our Covid problems are entirely manmade. We did it to ourselves.

99%? Of course, human behavior bears responsibility (perhaps a large part) but I wouldn't put it as high as 99%. And I will not purport to have an accurate percentage. The virus behavior bears more than just 1% responsibility.