Lakewood covid cases

[AsherO]

Without the spread from chasunas we probably would’ve had immunity or atleast close enough to it

How does less spread = more immunity? Doesn’t add up...

(I know what you’re trying to say, but you’re using the wrong terminology)

[yungermanchik]

How does less spread = more immunity? Doesn’t add up...

(I know what you’re trying to say, but you’re using the wrong terminology)

Just in case someone else doesn't:

Does anyone really think that herd-immunity is some sort of magic, that you get immunity bestowed on you if you were at 1 point part of a certain "herd". Obviously, if you don't have personal immunity and you are now part of a non-immune herd, you are susceptible.

I fully get that. What does herd immunity do?

That when one infected person has contact with a few locals (shopping in a local store) they likely came in contact with immune individuals or even if one of them was susceptible, their contacts were likely immune and therefore the spread chain comes to a dead end. However, if the infected person comes in contact with many people, like meshulachim going from door to door, "herd immunity" is useless. Similarly, in a camp that is not limited to "in-towners", or those that have personal immunity, herd-immunity, is useless.   

[aygart]

Just in case someone else doesn't:

It would mean having allowing it to spread and then stopping at the perfect time. lol

[yungermanchik]

It would mean having allowing it to spread and then stopping at the perfect time. lol

Now I'm confused. All I meant was that there was possibly enough "herd immunity" for individual contact chains to fizzle out, as it seemed before the wedding season started (a few cases but no widespread wave). But for mass contact webs (like weddings etc.) there needs to be a much greater threshold which clearly hadn't been reached. I think this is what @Jellybelly meant, but he can correct me if I misunderstood.

[Jellybelly]

Now I'm confused. All I meant was that there was possibly enough "herd immunity" for individual contact chains to fizzle out, as it seemed before the wedding season started (a few cases but no widespread wave). But for mass contact webs (like weddings etc.) there needs to be a much greater threshold which clearly hadn't been reached. I think this is what @Jellybelly meant, but he can correct me if I misunderstood.

Yup

[aygart]

Now I'm confused. All I meant was that there was possibly enough "herd immunity" for individual contact chains to fizzle out, as it seemed before the wedding season started (a few cases but no widespread wave). But for mass contact webs (like weddings etc.) there needs to be a much greater threshold which clearly hadn't been reached. I think this is what @Jellybelly meant, but he can correct me if I misunderstood.

Yes but we only reached where we are from weddings so it would have required that there be weddings until we reach a certain point and only then stop the weddings.

[AsherO]

Now I'm confused. All I meant was that there was possibly enough "herd immunity" for individual contact chains to fizzle out, as it seemed before the wedding season started (a few cases but no widespread wave). But for mass contact webs (like weddings etc.) there needs to be a much greater threshold which clearly hadn't been reached. I think this is what @Jellybelly meant, but he can correct me if I misunderstood.

That just means a lower Rt, it doesn’t mean herd immunity at all.

[yungermanchik]

That just means a lower Rt, it doesn’t mean herd immunity at all.

I don't thinks so, the point over here is not just that it's slower spread, but that at each "possible transmission point" it becomes less likely to continue because there are many immune people. But that becomes irrelevant if the infected person comes in contact with many non-immune people at the same time.
As I said before:

That when one infected person has contact with a few locals (shopping in a local store) they likely came in contact with immune individuals or even if one of them was susceptible, their contacts were likely immune and therefore the spread chain comes to a dead end. However, if the infected person comes in contact with many people, like meshulachim going from door to door, "herd immunity" is useless. Similarly, in a camp that is not limited to "in-towners", or those that have personal immunity, herd-immunity, is useless.   

[Lurker]

I don't thinks so, the point over here is not just that it's slower spread, but that at each "possible transmission point" it becomes less likely to continue because there are many immune people. But that becomes irrelevant if the infected person comes in contact with many non-immune people at the same time.
As I said before:

You're missing that, to begin with, there would be fewer immune people if not for weddings.

[yungermanchik]

You're missing that, to begin with, there would be fewer immune people if not for weddings.

I was under the impression that @Jellybelly was talking about enough immunity based on the first wave, if not for the weddings to start the second wave.

[S209]

The k factor of this virus is too low for traditional herd immunity numbers to be calculated correctly using just the R0 number. Too many infections come from too few people.

[AsherO]

I don't thinks so, the point over here is not just that it's slower spread, but that at each "possible transmission point" it becomes less likely to continue because there are many immune people. But that becomes irrelevant if the infected person comes in contact with many non-immune people at the same time.
As I said before:

But herd immunity isn’t a sliding scale, it’s an absolute.

[yungermanchik]

But herd immunity isn’t a sliding scale, it’s an absolute.

I don't see it as a sliding scale or an absolute. To me, it's more like a דין לגבי as in לגבי individual contact, there was possibly herd immunity, but לגבי mass contact, there wasn't.

[AsherO]

I don't see it as a sliding scale or an absolute. To me, it's more like a דין לגבי as in לגבי individual contact, there was possibly herd immunity, but לגבי mass contact, there wasn't.

Not how herd immunity works, sorry.

[S209]

Not how hers immunity works, sorry.

R0 does take behavior patterns into account.

[AsherO]

R0 does take behavior patterns into account.

But that’s not herd immunity. Herd immunity would consider the baseline R for COVID with no restrictions or precautions. Basically if we vaccinate x% of our population and there are no COVID cases, then we don’t have to worry about someone showing up with COVID because R will effectively be below 0.

There is no “herd immunity לגבי פלוני” unless פלוני is an entire herd...

[Yehuda57]

But that’s not herd immunity. Herd immunity would consider the baseline R for COVID with no restrictions or precautions. Basically if we vaccinate x% of our population and there are no COVID cases, then we don’t have to worry about someone showing up with COVID because R will effectively be below 0.

There is no “herd immunity לגבי פלוני” unless פלוני is an entire herd...

You're thinking of cow immunity. Immunity caused by vaccination is sheeple immunity.

[AsherO]

You're thinking of cow immunity. Immunity caused by vaccination is sheeple immunity.

What I really wish for now is troll immunity

[Yehuda57]

What I really wish for now is troll immunity

There's a solution, just not sure if it's kosher

[aygart]

You're thinking of cow immunity. Immunity caused by vaccination is sheeple immunity.