Lakewood covid cases

[Lurker]

In general you can not get a virus twice, so why do you choose to believe that with covid you can? If that's not an agenda idk what is.

The common cold is a coronavirus. People get a cold 2-3 times a year.

[avromie7]

The common cold is a coronavirus. People get a cold 2-3 times a year.

they only account for 15% of colds IIRC

[shaulyaakov]

Um, that's exactly what it means.

Antibodies test for presence of certain proteins. Considering none of us had baselines, it's possible they were from another Corona virus and not SARS-COV-2.

There's also a non zero chance that people got a false positive - could be in the neighborhood of 50% false positive rate depending which test was taken. I'm not going to explain conditional probability to explain how those numbers work, but feel free to look it up.

There are also questions about antibody levels, declines etc.

[dasmo801]

Here is a quote from a local doctor. He will remain nameless unless and until I can confirm that he intended his email to be made public.

COVID-19 disease is spreading like wildfire in Lakewood in the last 1-2 weeks. There is no clear evidence that this virus is weaker, only that the numbers of people who are infected are fewer and the high risk individuals are protecting themselves much better than in the Spring, thus leading to rare hospitalizations and no deaths as yet, B'H.' This could all change very rapidly if the proper precautions are not taken.

[Afrages6]

Antibodies test for presence of certain proteins. Considering none of us had baselines, it's possible they were from another Corona virus and not SARS-COV-2.

There's also a non zero chance that people got a false positive - could be in the neighborhood of 50% false positive rate depending which test was taken. I'm not going to explain conditional probability to explain how those numbers work, but feel free to look it up.

There are also questions about antibody levels, declines etc.

If you wonder why no one listens to you it’s because you are relying on fringe medical possibilities and aren’t willing to accept the facts on the ground.

There hasn’t been a single such case or suggestion of such a case yet you’re so worried about it.

False positive rate could be up to 50 percent in a place with an extremely low infection rate, a lot of these communities have a pretty high infection rate.

[shaulyaakov]

If you wonder why no one listens to you it’s because you are relying on fringe medical possibilities and aren’t willing to accept the facts on the ground.

There hasn’t been a single such case or suggestion of such a case yet you’re so worried about it.

False positive rate could be up to 50 percent in a place with an extremely low infection rate, a lot of these communities have a pretty high infection rate.

These aren't fringe medical opinions. This is the standard stuff you'll see on the cdc website, as well as Harvard, John's Hopkins etc.

Search anything reliable on antibodies anywhere, and you'll see that there's no scientific consensus on how powerful of long lasting antibodies are. Moreover, given that this virus has existed less than 1 year, it's far to early to know the effect of waning antibodies.

What we do know is that Lakewood, BP etc. have among the highest positive test rates in the tri-state area, in spite of the supposed herd immunity achieved back in April. That really only leaves 2 possible explanations -

1. Waning antibodies
2. Lower transmission rates than projected

It's really not that complicated.

[shaulyaakov]

I've heard that the immune system produces different types of antibodies when a person is infected with the COVID-19 coronavirus. How do they differ? Why is this important?
When a person gets a viral or bacterial infection, a healthy immune system makes antibodies against one or more components of the virus or bacterium.

The COVID-19 coronavirus contains ribonucleic acid (RNA) surrounded by a protective layer, which has spike proteins on the outer surface that can latch on to certain human cells. Once inside the cells, the viral RNA starts to replicate and also turns on the production of proteins, both of which allow the virus to infect more cells and spread throughout the body, especially to the lungs.

While the immune system could potentially respond to different parts of the virus, it's the spike proteins that get the most attention. Immune cells recognize the spike proteins as a foreign substance and begin producing antibodies in response.

There are two main categories of antibodies:

Binding antibodies. These antibodies can bind to either the spike protein or a different protein known as the nucleocapsid protein. Binding antibodies can be detected with blood tests starting about one week after the initial infection. If antibodies are found, it's extremely likely that the person has been infected with the COVID-19 coronavirus. The antibody level declines over time after an infection, sometimes to an undetectable level.

Binding antibodies help fight the infection, but they might not offer protection against getting reinfected in the future. It depends on whether they are also neutralizing antibodies....

It's also worth noting that someone who has been re-infected — even someone with no symptoms — has the potential to spread the virus to others. That means that everyone, even those who have recovered from coronavirus infection, should continue to wear masks and practice physical distancing.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/if-youve-been-exposed-to-the-coronavirus

[Afrages6]

These aren't fringe medical opinions. This is the standard stuff you'll see on the cdc website, as well as Harvard, John's Hopkins etc.

Search anything reliable on antibodies anywhere, and you'll see that there's no scientific consensus on how powerful of long lasting antibodies are. Moreover, given that this virus has existed less than 1 year, it's far to early to know the effect of waning antibodies.

What we do know is that Lakewood, BP etc. have among the highest positive test rates in the tri-state area, in spite of the supposed herd immunity achieved back in April. That really only leaves 2 possible explanations -

1. Waning antibodies
2. Lower transmission rates than projected

It's really not that complicated.

I didn’t say fringe medical opinions. I said fringe medical possibilities.. as you suggested that someone with antibodies can still spread the virus.

Positivity rate isn’t really helpful if most people in BP aren’t getting tested and only the ones that are sick or exposed are.. which is likely the case. And what is your source for Lakewood? Some people posting that they heard from a doctor that wants to remain anonymous?

[shaulyaakov]

Assume you can catch — and spread — coronavirus

Since one of the most puzzling things about this new coronavirus is how differently it affects individuals, testing is the best way to determine whether or not you have COVID-19.
Whether or not your antibody test is positive or negative, you should remember that you might still be able to catch COVID-19 or unknowingly spread the disease to someone else if you carry the coronavirus, regardless of whether you have any symptoms.
That is why, regardless of your antibody status, mask wearing in public is essential to preventing spread of COVID-19, along with physical distancing and hand hygiene. If you are newly symptomatic, getting a viral test would be important to determine if new infection has occurred.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-testing-what-is-an-antibody-test%3famp=true

[Afrages6]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-testing-what-is-an-antibody-test%3famp=true

This is exactly my point. Look at the facts on the ground rather then general medical statements

[shaulyaakov]

I didn’t say fringe medical opinions. I said fringe medical possibilities.. as you suggested that someone with antibodies can still spread the virus.

Positivity rate isn’t really helpful if most people in BP aren’t getting tested and only the ones that are sick or exposed are.. which is likely the case. And what is your source for Lakewood? Some people posting that they heard from a doctor that wants to remain anonymous?

My point is the entire public health apparatus is saying the same thing - having antibodies isn't a free pass to not keep restrictions. The bre mimnmum should be keeping those restrictions thst don't prevent people from living "normally" - wear masks, distance during minyanim, and don't have big indoor weddings.

[Afrages6]

My point is the entire public health apparatus is saying the same thing - having antibodies isn't a free pass to not keep restrictions. The bre mimnmum should be keeping those restrictions thst don't prevent people from living "normally" - wear masks, distance during minyanim, and don't have big indoor weddings.

And my point is that general health statements from our public health apparatus (same one that green lighted protests I may add) are very different then what lots of doctors are informing individual communities. And the doctors haven’t been proven wrong yet you’re still screaming about it

[aygart]

This is exactly my point. Look at the facts on the ground rather then general medical statements

I am looking for facts on the ground from 8 months after infection. I couldn't find any. Can you let me to some?

[shaulyaakov]

This is exactly my point. Look at the facts on the ground rather then general medical statements

What do the facts on the ground lead you to think? Because I bet a month ago it would have led you to beleive there's herd immunity.

[Baruch]

The common cold is a coronavirus. People get a cold 2-3 times a year.

Some comon colds are rhinoviruses, IIRC, you don't get the same common cold more than once a year.

[Lurker]

This is exactly my point. Look at the facts on the ground rather then general medical statements

The problem with this approach is that you're always at least one step behind, and even that's assuming you have the ability to gather and analyze data in real time. To dismiss preventative measures because something hasn't happened yet is nonsensical. To say preventative measures aren't necessary in our current situation... that's just living in denial, and that hasn't worked for us so far.

[Lurker]

they only account for 15% of colds IIRC

Some comon colds are rhinoviruses, IIRC, you don't get the same common cold more than once a year.

You're right. Coronaviruses account for around 20% of colds, and immunity is believed to last for between 3-12 months. Most people are only exposed to coronaviruses once a year, as they are generally seasonal. There are also 3-4 different coronaviruses that cause colds. IINM, immunity doesn't last more then 24 months for any of them.

[hllulbh1]

People get H1N1 flu viruses all the time. Same thing with the common cold. You have some amount of protection from some strains, for a finite period of time.

H1N1 viruses come in different strains/mutations. Once you have gotten a specific strain of flu you can not get it again. The most likely theory of the lethal 1918 flu epidemic is that older people already had a related strain earlier in their lives and therefore when it returned in 1918 in its deadliest form the only the healthy younger generation got it. (refer to "Flu" by Gina Kolata)

[Afrages6]

The problem with this approach is that you're always at least one step behind, and even that's assuming you have the ability to gather and analyze data in real time. To dismiss preventative measures because something hasn't happened yet is nonsensical. To say preventative measures aren't necessary in our current situation... that's just living in denial, and that hasn't worked for us so far.

But people won’t listen to you if you tell them that antibodies aren’t protective at all and they could still be spreading the virus. Lots of respected doctors are differentiating between those with antibodies and without. Just because general public health agencies won’t make blanket statements about it doesn’t mean that it isn’t true.

[Lurker]

But people won’t listen to you if you tell them that antibodies aren’t protective at all and they could still be spreading the virus. Lots of respected doctors are differentiating between those with antibodies and without. Just because general public health agencies won’t make blanket statements about it doesn’t mean that it isn’t true.

I could be wrong, and I'm not about to scour his posts, but I don't believe he made a blanket statement that antibodies aren't protective at all. I believe he said that they cannot be relied upon, because a) you may still be able to transmit the disease with antibodies, and b) we have no idea how long they confer immunity yet. To make blanket statements to the contrary, giving people the idea that they absolutely cannot get the virus twice, can prove to be a very deadly assumption.