Author Topic: Lakewood covid cases  (Read 522568 times)

Offline avromie7

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #340 on: September 01, 2020, 06:36:06 PM »
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #341 on: September 01, 2020, 06:41:27 PM »
We’ll be there soon shefela.

All kidding aside the source of these cases is far more important than the actual numbers which themselves are not particularly high....
I think we (DDF) are undercounting since we are only using Lakewood numbers and not including TR/Jackson.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #342 on: September 01, 2020, 06:42:44 PM »
I think we (DDF) are undercounting since we are only using Lakewood numbers and not including TR/Jackson.
Lakewood also includes many who aren't from our community.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #343 on: September 01, 2020, 06:43:49 PM »
I think we (DDF) are undercounting since we are only using Lakewood numbers and not including TR/Jackson.

And also only confirmed cases. There's no way to really know how many people aren't getting tested.
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #344 on: September 01, 2020, 06:44:46 PM »
Lakewood also includes many who aren't from our community.

Chemed's numbers were pretty close to OCHD over the last couple of weeks, IINM.
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Offline Yard sale

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #345 on: September 01, 2020, 07:04:01 PM »
Let's say you're right. Community spread hasn't really happened on a large scale yet. Let's say the numbers double over the next couple of weeks to about 300-400 confirmed cases. Then comes hours of davening for 2 days in a row over Rosh Hashana, along with meals with guests and visitors. How is this different from early March, leading up to our mass spreader events on Purim?

We keep saying it won't happen again, because this time we know what to look for. If we keep on ignoring the red flags, what use are they?
We are running at around 100 cases a week. Positives are infectious  for around 10 days from symptom onset (other than severe illness) so double the number is actually closer to 200. The question is if the events of March are replicable, or if there is enough immunity to preclude that from happening. Either way, putting elderly or immunocompromised individuals in large minyanim for hours at a time is asking for trouble for those individuals. But at this point there is no reason to assume that a hundred cases will explode into thousands as they did in March.
 

Offline Lurker

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #346 on: September 01, 2020, 08:27:30 PM »
We are running at around 100 cases a week. Positives are infectious  for around 10 days from symptom onset (other than severe illness) so double the number is actually closer to 200. The question is if the events of March are replicable, or if there is enough immunity to preclude that from happening. Either way, putting elderly or immunocompromised individuals in large minyanim for hours at a time is asking for trouble for those individuals. But at this point there is no reason to assume that a hundred cases will explode into thousands as they did in March.

We're doubling weekly, and there are 20 days til RH. Even if we double every 10 days, 100 x 2 = 200, 200 x 2 = 400.

We're differing over semantics and math. So let's say there won't be as many cases as March. Let's say we get only half. You're ok with that? The point is, this is how this virus spreads. We've watched happen over and over and over again all around this country and around the world. Sitting back and giving excuses for why it won't be so bad instead of nipping it in the bud is just irresponsible.

ETA: you can tell the higher risk people to stay home all you want, but if they look out their windows, they'll see business as usual. To paraphrase quite a few members here, "the data doesn't matter and neither does the science. God gave me eyes and I can see the reality in front of me. The reality in Lakewood right now is that everything is normal. The virus must not be here." Oh, and keeping high risk people home may help with the death rate, but people will still get infected and be left to deal with all the long-term effects.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2020, 08:31:23 PM by Lurker »
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Offline Kobe Bryant

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #347 on: September 01, 2020, 08:31:14 PM »
It is in an email from a local pediatrician to patients and others who signed up for the newsletter. Someone changed the first word of the paragraph from CHEMED to Doctors but the rest is verbatim.

This is the prior paragraph.
If we reached the point that even @yaakov35 is calling for a lockdown and fearmongering then maybe we should open our eyes.
How is lockdown even part of a rational conversation?

Offline Kobe Bryant

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #348 on: September 01, 2020, 08:55:31 PM »
Literally everywhere in the United States (and probably many other countries), everyone is wearing masks when indoors in public places. The one major exception is Jewish communities in NY/NJ. Must be because of how smart we are....
Absolutely False.

Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #349 on: September 01, 2020, 09:24:01 PM »
We are running at around 100 cases a week. Positives are infectious  for around 10 days from symptom onset (other than severe illness) so double the number is actually closer to 200. The question is if the events of March are replicable, or if there is enough immunity to preclude that from happening. Either way, putting elderly or immunocompromised individuals in large minyanim for hours at a time is asking for trouble for those individuals. But at this point there is no reason to assume that a hundred cases will explode into thousands as they did in March.
When trying to claim that somehow Denmark has it worse than Sweden, all you pointed to was “trend”.
When trying to claim it could never happen to Lakewood, all you said was that you need emunah to believe otherwise. Suggesting otherwise was hysterical and fear-mongering.
When trying to claim the US was overstating the infection growth, you said only percent positive matters.
When trying to claim reopening wouldn’t matter, you said it hasn’t happened yet in Florida, Israel, and Georgia.
When trying to claim Florida wasn’t so bad, you said only deaths matter.
When trying to claim deaths were misrepresented, you said only new hospitalizations matter.


Lakewood has months with 0-3 cases a week.
3 weeks ago there was suddenly a spike: 12 cases.
2 weeks ago, it doubled to 25.
Last week, it doubled to 50.
It’s Monday night, and we’ve already surpassed 35 confirmed cases. I’ll take better than even odds we’re going to break 100 this week. You just suggested as much yourself.

Now you’re claiming it’s not “community spread” (with zero evidence), and maybe there’s enough immunity to stop it from exploding like March (a straw man, as March is not the cut off of it being too bad to tolerate. March was the single worst month for the frum community in a century. Many fewer hospitalizations and deaths warrant a drastic response).

When does your circular logic finally show you that it’s time to act? Many doctors have now come out on the record, as well as Hatzalah, despite the fear of backlash. It seems some shuls have started to spread the message as well, though the silence and complete noncompliance of many is deafening.

If this is not enough, what is? Is it 1000 cases? 40 hospitalizations? 2 deaths? 20 cases of proven “community spread”?

If there’s any lesson we really *should* learn from March, it’s that the speed at which this virus doubles exponentially warrants acting *before* it seems justified, not *after*.
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Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #350 on: September 01, 2020, 09:36:09 PM »
There is no doubt that certain measures that minimally impact quality of life should be started now. Stop the הפקרות by weddings - we know that most cases are traced back to them.

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #351 on: September 01, 2020, 09:40:32 PM »
There is no doubt that certain measures that minimally impact quality of life should be started now. Stop the הפקרות by weddings - we know that most cases are traced back to them.
The Simcha industry is very large (and powerful?).

Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #352 on: September 01, 2020, 09:42:47 PM »
There is no doubt that certain measures that minimally impact quality of life should be started now. Stop the הפקרות by weddings - we know that most cases are traced back to them.
Absolutely, and that is what everyone is calling for!

1) Stop the jammed, indoor, reckless Simchos mixing in and out of town people with no regard for distancing measures
2) Wear masks
3) If you have symptoms, stay home and get tested
4) If positive or exposed to someone positive, STAY HOME and let your close contacts know

It’s not longer embarrassing to have COVID, you don’t need to be ashamed. It’s not hard to obtain a test. Ignorance is no longer an excuse. These are easy measures that don’t destroy our economy and allow maximum utility with minimal pain. No lockdown, shutting everything down, closing schools and babysitters, shuls, stores, etc.

Just. Use. Brains.
The Simcha industry is very large (and powerful?).

You’re right. But I am in the Simcha industry. I agree with him.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #353 on: September 01, 2020, 09:43:33 PM »
There is no doubt that certain measures that minimally impact quality of life should be started now. Stop the הפקרות by weddings - we know that most cases are traced back to them.
The problem is some here will jump to "everyone should wear masks" while claiming there is minimal impact on quality of life and the conversation comes to an abrupt end.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #354 on: September 01, 2020, 09:47:23 PM »
The problem is some here will jump to "everyone should wear masks" while claiming there is minimal impact on quality of life and the conversation comes to an abrupt end.
It should.. wearing masks has no significant impact on individuals and is very effective. Neither of those facts are in dispute. There isn’t a doctor alive who disagrees. There is no pain to the economy, no lack of davening or other ruchniyus pain, no schools closed, nothing. No government tyranny. None of the excuses used to argue against COVID measures hold up against it- we are not discussing the government telling us what to do, we are discussing the community deciding upon this for themselves. There is absolutely zero excuse to not wear a mask. It’s mind-blowing that it’s become politicized and is now even debatable. Taleb’s law of categorization.
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Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #355 on: September 01, 2020, 09:48:04 PM »
The problem is some here will jump to "everyone should wear masks" while claiming there is minimal impact on quality of life and the conversation comes to an abrupt end.

They already have....
However the other steps outlined bove should be followed. Anecdotally there are many more cases in Lakewood amoung Bochurim that are going untested - the time to act is now.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #356 on: September 01, 2020, 09:49:02 PM »
It sounds like the bigger issue is people who have the virus as well as people who know they had significant contact with infected people who would rather make believe nothing happened. I'm hearing about a wedding (I don't think it was in lakewood) where the shaitel macher tested positive the morning of the wedding (presumably passed it on to the kallah a few days before the wedding) and now 10 of the kallahs friends tested positive.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #357 on: September 01, 2020, 09:50:30 PM »
It sounds like the bigger issue is people who have the virus as well as people who know they had significant contact with infected people who would rather make believe nothing happened. I'm hearing about a wedding (I don't think it was in lakewood) where the shaitel macher tested positive the morning of the wedding (presumably passed it on to the kallah a few days before the wedding) and now 10 of the kallahs friends tested positive.

Do you think any of this would be preventable if everyone was wearing masks? You can't ignore the #1 tool we have at our disposal.
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Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #358 on: September 01, 2020, 09:52:28 PM »
It sounds like the bigger issue is people who have the virus as well as people who know they had significant contact with infected people who would rather make believe nothing happened. I'm hearing about a wedding (I don't think it was in lakewood) where the shaitel macher tested positive the morning of the wedding (presumably passed it on to the kallah a few days before the wedding) and now 10 of the kallahs friends tested positive.
+100000000

THIS!! I keep hearing similar stories. This is the number one most basic thing that should not be debated yet so many are acting like it’s normal! Sorry, but it’s the epitome of selfishness.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Lakewood cases
« Reply #359 on: September 01, 2020, 09:55:53 PM »
It should.. wearing masks has no significant impact on individuals and is very effective. Neither of those facts are in dispute. There isn’t a doctor alive who disagrees. There is no pain to the economy, no lack of davening or other ruchniyus pain, no schools closed, nothing. No government tyranny. None of the excuses used to argue against COVID measures hold up against it- we are not discussing the government telling us what to do, we are discussing the community deciding upon this for themselves. There is absolutely zero excuse to not wear a mask. It’s mind-blowing that it’s become politicized and is now even debatable. Taleb’s law of categorization.
Masks have a significant impact on quality of life. Maybe while going to the store (especially while wearing the least effective mask available) it's not too terrible, but try teaching a class full of children while wearing a mask and making sure the children wear masks. I don't know about you, but I can't fathom enjoying a wedding while forced to wear a mask. What about while working out? To say masks have no effect  on quality of life is downright ridiculous.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.