Lakewood covid cases

[avromie7]

I think you are starting to see some movement. Some schools are staggering or canceling orientations. Asifas have been postponed. I think the cheder and Bais faiga are at least trying to implement segregating classes etc. so  there is at least some awareness of the need to exercise some reasonable caution.

The Cheder is having Lunch and Mincha in the classrooms, that means the 6th and most 7th graders aren't davening with a minyan.

[grodnoking]

The Cheder is having Lunch and Mincha in the classrooms, that means the 6th and most 7th graders aren't davening with a minyan.

Why cant they put 10 bar mitzvah age kids 6 feet apart in the hallway and open the classroom doors?

[avromie7]

Why cant they put 10 bar mitzvah age kids 6 feet apart in the hallway and open the classroom doors?

I don't think anyone over bar mitzva is davening without a minyan, but the 11 and 12 y/o who don't have a minyan in their class are davening without a minyan.

[Jerseysteve]

Happy too see that a big Chasunah in Lakewood was done with the Chupah outside - definitely some movement.

[S209]

Happy too see that a big Chasunah in Lakewood was done with the Chupah outside - definitely some movement.

Helps that that’s mehudar also

[Lurker]

Happy too see that a big Chasunah in Lakewood was done with the Chupah outside - definitely some movement.

Lubavitchers reading your post are wondering if it's sarcasm 

[EliJelly]

Lubavitchers reading your post are wondering if it's sarcasm 

Among the rest of all chassidim and all Talmidei Chasam Sofer. That a chupa should be held under the sky is brought down in Rema.

[yuneeq]

Exactly my point. Nobody cares about anybody else, everyone is just nervous about themselves. You want someone to wear a mask not because he might infect other people, but because he might infect you. And that's exactly what covid did. It turned humanity on each other. Nobody really cares covid spreading or anything, they just want to make sure it doesn't affect them.

Maybe I’m unique but I don’t think I’ve ever felt more concerned for others before COVID, and relatively speaking its as if I didn’t care at all about anyone else.

[yesitsme]

https://www.foxnews.com/health/mutated-form-coronavirus-more-contagious-less-deadly-experts

[Lurker]

Maybe I’m unique yuneeq but I don’t think I’ve ever felt more concerned for others before COVID, and relatively speaking its as if I didn’t care at all about anyone else.

FTFY

[Euclid]

Just a reminder about how silently covid spreads, I know someone who became symptomatic 10 days after being exposed to her friend. The entire family has been quarantining for the past 2 weeks, and the mother just became symptomatic 2 days ago (9 days after being exposed to her daughter who was contained to her room.)

[yfr bachur]

Exactly my point. Nobody cares about anybody else, everyone is just nervous about themselves. You want someone to wear a mask not because he might infect other people, but because he might infect you. And that's exactly what covid did. It turned humanity on each other. Nobody really cares covid spreading or anything, they just want to make sure it doesn't affect them.

Didn't mean you as you personally, you meant an individual. People don't care about a greater good or society, only about themselves. People are scared of the high number of covid cases because impact their lives. They aren't concerned about others lives.

Kol HaPosel BeMumo Posel.

[yzj]

Here’s a question for all of those out there saying that there is community spread. Let’s say for example you have an area that has herd immunity. Multiple weddings each week expose those who are still susceptible (remember, herd immunity doesn’t mean everyone is immune) to outsiders, resulting in lets say, 60 new cases. Let’s say herd immunity means the R factor is now .8.

Those 50 cases will infect 40 new people on average in the community who will go on to infect 32 who will go on to infect approximately 26 etc. until that line of transmission dies out when it hits 5.

That means after a few such weeks the numbers will increase (remember it takes time for each generation to affect the next) we will see a couple hundred “community acquired” cases each week. If the wedding numbers go up, we will have a proportionately larger number of cases. Is that evidence of community spread and a massive coming wave, or of herd immunity? Hint- read up on herd immunity.

[aygart]

Here’s a question for all of those out there saying that there is community spread. Let’s say for example you have an area that has herd immunity. Multiple weddings each week expose those who are still susceptible (remember, herd immunity doesn’t mean everyone is immune) to outsiders, resulting in lets say, 60 new cases. Let’s say herd immunity means the R factor is now .8.

Those 50 cases will infect 40 new people on average in the community who will go on to infect 32 who will go on to infect approximately 26 etc. until that line of transmission dies out when it hits 5.

That means after a few such weeks the numbers will increase (remember it takes time for each generation to affect the next) we will see a couple hundred “community acquired” cases each week. If the wedding numbers go up, we will have a proportionately larger number of cases. Is that evidence of community spread and a massive coming wave, or of herd immunity? Hint- read up on herd immunity.

But how would we know now if this is what will happen?

[yzj]

But how would we know now if this is what will happen?

That’s the definition of herd immunity. That’s why tracing the source is so important. Even if it’s a few hundred cases ch”v it makes a major difference. If it’s herd immunity you put all your resources into eliminating the source (outside weddings and events) and within a few transmission cycles you eliminate the problem. If it’s true community spread you have to work on SD, masks, etc. if you want to bring the R number below 1 and eliminate the spread. (Or you can let it run it’s course and hope to get the number below one without too much mortality -achieve true herd immunity-, a somewhat risky proposition if we truly did not reach that point the first time around.)

[aygart]

That’s the definition of herd immunity. That’s why tracing the source is so important. Even if it’s a few hundred cases ch”v it makes a major difference. If it’s herd immunity you put all your resources into eliminating the source (outside weddings and events) and within a few transmission cycles you eliminate the problem. If it’s true community spread you have to work on SD, masks, etc. if you want to bring the R number below 1 and eliminate the spread. (Or you can let it run it’s course and hope to get the number below one without too much mortality -achieve true herd immunity-, a somewhat risky proposition if we truly did not reach that point the first time around.)

Iget that, but the scenario you describe is in the future. How do we know whether that is the scenario that will happen or if it will be regular community spread until we reach true herd immunity?

[chevron]

How do we know herd immunity exists ? Outside of vaccinations, if reinfection is a possibility, you're just making wild assumptions.

[avromie7]

How do we know herd immunity exists ? Outside of vaccinations, if reinfection is a possibility, you're just making wild assumptions.

IINM immunity from vaccination is always more likely to wane than immunity from the virus itself.

[yzj]

How do we know herd immunity exists ? Outside of vaccinations, if reinfection is a possibility, you're just making wild assumptions.

No one is claiming that mass reinfection has been seen; at best only a small minority have experienced reinfection. That would not preclude herd immunity. You would need a level of reinfection high enough to increase the r factor above one and that does not appear to be likely.

[Euclid]

16 new cases via OCHD.