Its exactly this absolutist argument - "Not wearing a mask all the time = COVID" - that is creating the pushback in this forum. As if all laws of probability are suspended and everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times no matter what.
I don't think that there is anyone that believes that "everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times" and completely agree with you that the laws of probability can apply in the absence of HP.
But lets talk probability and use the seat belt example someone came up with last month which I really think has value.
#1 - You are driving on a road with no one else for miles and you know that no one is coming at you. There is little to no danger in not wearing a seat belt. This is the same as not wearing a mask in your backyard or walking in a forest with no one around.
#2 - You are driving on a road with some traffic and you are an excellent driver. There is some danger in not wearing a seat belt, because if another car comes into your lane, you need to be protected from being ejected and you need to stay in control of the car to protect your passengers. This is the same as wearing a mask in light crowd settings - as skilled as you are in avoiding others, if someone comes over to talk to you and they are carrying the virus, what protects you? And what stops you from spreading it to your family?
#3 - You are driving a car in rush hour traffic or a rain/snow storm. You are still an excellent driver, but there are many crazies out there who are in a rush to get home, or people who can't see you because of the weather. The seat belt is essential to protect you and the passengers in your car. As careful as you are, you need the seat belt in case someone acts in a dangerous manner. You even ask your kids in the backseat to put on seat belts because the conditions are dangerous. This is the same as wearing a mask at a wedding, or on the subway or some other packed area.
Yes, wearing a mask is a nuisance and more restrictive than going without. But so are seatbelts and we wear them to protect ourselves and those around us.