Author Topic: Lakewood covid cases  (Read 522869 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #780 on: September 09, 2020, 02:39:10 PM »
Great so feel free to buy into all this stuff for the next few years. Others won't

And if you don't "buy in" it goes away? Like taking the blue or red pill?
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Offline hllulbh1

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #781 on: September 09, 2020, 02:46:20 PM »
I love it when people talk about a pandemic like it's optional or controllable. We need to have exit strategies, or sell people on masks, because if we don't, they'll just opt out of Covid. "Sorry, I don't want to participate. Please put me on your Do Not Call list."

Its exactly this absolutist argument - "Not wearing a mask all the time = COVID" - that is creating the pushback in this forum. As if all laws of probability are suspended and everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times no matter what.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #782 on: September 09, 2020, 02:48:00 PM »
Optimism bias is a real thing. It affects every single person in the world; and it's arguably the strongest bias.
I think some here have pessimism bias
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #783 on: September 09, 2020, 02:48:26 PM »
I think some here have pessimism bias
(Sorry about the delete, I wanted to rephrase it.)

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #784 on: September 09, 2020, 02:51:02 PM »
Its exactly this absolutist argument - "Not wearing a mask all the time = COVID" - that is creating the pushback in this forum. As if all laws of probability are suspended and everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times no matter what.
That's not at all the mask argument.

The mask argument is that the more people wear masks, the less covid transmits overall. Therefore, everyone always needs to wear a mask or the whole system falls apart.


Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #785 on: September 09, 2020, 02:53:35 PM »
9 new cases via OCHD.

(This is the last time I'm going to post these numbers; because of the cover up they aren't representative of what's going on.)

Offline avromie7

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #786 on: September 09, 2020, 03:07:04 PM »
9 new cases via OCHD.

(This is the last time I'm going to post these numbers; because of the cover up they aren't representative of what's going on.)
When did the coverup start? The weekly average was going up until 3 days ago, now it's going down.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Euclid

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Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #787 on: September 09, 2020, 03:09:01 PM »
When did the coverup start? The weekly average was going up until 3 days ago, now it's going down.
I'm assuming the coordination has gotten better over the past week or so.

How else do you reconcile these numbers with the anecdotes? I have no other answer.

There is probably a Labor Day lag involved though.

Offline dasmo801

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #788 on: September 09, 2020, 03:11:17 PM »
When did the coverup start? The weekly average was going up until 3 days ago, now it's going down.
I wouldn't call it a cover up. Its not like OCHD is covering up anything. But it's quite obvious that the numbers that are being reported to them represent a drop in the bucket of what's really going on. A simple conversation with any doctor in town will confirm that.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #789 on: September 09, 2020, 03:11:47 PM »
I'm assuming the coordination has gotten better over the past week or so.

How else do you reconcile these numbers with the anecdotes? I have no other answer.

There is probably a Labor Day lag involved though.
Maybe cases really are going back down. Labor day may explain in, we'll find out in a few days.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #790 on: September 09, 2020, 03:11:58 PM »
Its exactly this absolutist argument - "Not wearing a mask all the time = COVID" - that is creating the pushback in this forum. As if all laws of probability are suspended and everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times no matter what.

Which part of the argument do you believe is absolute? That masks prevent the spread of the disease? Yes, that is absolute. That masks need to be worn all the time or you'll automatically get Covid? I never made that argument. Nuance strikes again.
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Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #791 on: September 09, 2020, 03:12:47 PM »
Maybe cases really are going back down. Labor day may explain in, we'll find out in a few days.
That would be a really welcome surprise if cases are really decreasing.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #792 on: September 09, 2020, 03:13:17 PM »
I wouldn't call it a cover up. Its not like OCHD is covering up anything. But it's quite obvious that the numbers that are being reported to them represent a drop in the bucket of what's really going on. A simple conversation with any doctor in town will confirm that.

The cover-up isn't on OCHD's part. It's people hiding data from OCHD.
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Offline NTorch

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #793 on: September 09, 2020, 03:15:34 PM »
Its exactly this absolutist argument - "Not wearing a mask all the time = COVID" - that is creating the pushback in this forum. As if all laws of probability are suspended and everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times no matter what.

I don't think that there is anyone that believes that "everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times" and completely agree with you that the laws of probability can apply in the absence of HP.

But lets talk probability and use the seat belt example someone came up with last month which I really think has value.

#1 - You are driving on a road with no one else for miles and you know that no one is coming at you. There is little to no danger in not wearing a seat belt. This is the same as not wearing a mask in your backyard or walking in a forest with no one around.

#2 - You are driving on a road with some traffic and you are an excellent driver. There is some danger in not wearing a seat belt, because if another car comes into your lane, you need to be protected from being ejected and you need to stay in control of the car to protect your passengers. This is the same as wearing a mask in light crowd settings - as skilled as you are in avoiding others, if someone comes over to talk to you and they are carrying the virus, what protects you? And what stops you from spreading it to your family?

#3 - You are driving a car in rush hour traffic or a rain/snow storm. You are still an excellent driver, but there are many crazies out there who are in a rush to get home, or people who can't see you because of the weather. The seat belt is essential to protect you and the passengers in your car. As careful as you are, you need the seat belt in case someone acts in a dangerous manner. You even ask your kids in the backseat to put on seat belts because the conditions are dangerous.  This is the same as wearing a mask at a wedding, or on the subway or some other packed area.

Yes, wearing a mask is a nuisance and more restrictive than going without. But so are seatbelts and we wear them to protect ourselves and those around us.

Offline yzj

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #794 on: September 09, 2020, 03:16:57 PM »
Meanwhile Lakewood life goes on, maskless, blissfully unaware of the raging debate on DDF about what they should be doing.

Offline Jeremiah

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #795 on: September 09, 2020, 03:18:50 PM »
That's not at all the mask argument.

The mask argument is that the more people wear masks, the less covid transmits overall. Therefore, everyone always needs to wear a mask or the whole system falls apart.
Less transmission won't eliminate the virus. So you till when should we "take charge" and slow it down?

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #796 on: September 09, 2020, 03:19:48 PM »
I don't think that there is anyone that believes that "everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times" and completely agree with you that the laws of probability can apply in the absence of HP.

But lets talk probability and use the seat belt example someone came up with last month which I really think has value.

#1 - You are driving on a road with no one else for miles and you know that no one is coming at you. There is little to no danger in not wearing a seat belt. This is the same as not wearing a mask in your backyard or walking in a forest with no one around.

#2 - You are driving on a road with some traffic and you are an excellent driver. There is some danger in not wearing a seat belt, because if another car comes into your lane, you need to be protected from being ejected and you need to stay in control of the car to protect your passengers. This is the same as wearing a mask in light crowd settings - as skilled as you are in avoiding others, if someone comes over to talk to you and they are carrying the virus, what protects you? And what stops you from spreading it to your family?

#3 - You are driving a car in rush hour traffic or a rain/snow storm. You are still an excellent driver, but there are many crazies out there who are in a rush to get home, or people who can't see you because of the weather. The seat belt is essential to protect you and the passengers in your car. As careful as you are, you need the seat belt in case someone acts in a dangerous manner. You even ask your kids in the backseat to put on seat belts because the conditions are dangerous.  This is the same as wearing a mask at a wedding, or on the subway or some other packed area.

Yes, wearing a mask is a nuisance and more restrictive than going without. But so are seatbelts and we wear them to protect ourselves and those around us.
The only issue with this analogy is it's not the wearer's risk tolerance that's paramount - it's the risk tolerance of those around him.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #797 on: September 09, 2020, 03:21:27 PM »
Less transmission won't eliminate the virus. So you till when should we "take charge" and slow it down?

Wonder what your take would have been during the AIDS crisis...
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Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #798 on: September 09, 2020, 03:22:13 PM »
Less transmission won't eliminate the virus. So you till when should we "take charge" and slow it down?
It should be slowed down until R0 is persistently below 1. We aren't there yet by a long shot.

Offline NTorch

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #799 on: September 09, 2020, 03:26:00 PM »
The only issue with this analogy is it's not the wearer's risk tolerance that's paramount - it's the risk tolerance of those around him.

I'm not sure that I follow, can you please explain?