Author Topic: Lakewood covid cases  (Read 522609 times)

Offline biobook

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2000 on: October 01, 2020, 07:27:04 PM »
The chances of being reinfected are still extremely low, the fact that there are a few reinfections doesn't change that. Knowing that you still have antibodies means the chances of reinfection are basically zero.

We can consider two different extreme possibilities:

A. 99.99% of people have lifelong immunity after a covid infection, but a tiny percent don't, and can get reinfected.
B. 0% of people have lifelong immunity, and they lose immunity about 6-12 months after the first infection.

For the two scenarios, the percent who lose immunity each month would look something like this:

     A             B
Sept   0.1%   0.1%
Oct   0.1%   2%
Nov   0.1%   14%
Dec   0.1%   34%
Jan   0.1%   34%
Feb   0.1%   14%
Mar   0.1%   2%
April   0.1%   0.1%

When we first see a tiny number of reinfections, we can't determine which of the two hypotheses is correct, whether re-infections are very unlikely (A) or very likely (B).  We would expect to see only a few re-infections at this point in either scenario.  Only in a few months will we know which is more likely true.

Of course, losing immunity is not the same as reinfection, since some will take precautions to avoid reinfection.

Offline iwlw2

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2001 on: October 01, 2020, 07:45:51 PM »
Okay anyone know Chemed/ My care?
Or for that matter the Mayo Clinic from Bikur Cholim of Lakewood testing? My results were 3.62 (positive for antibodies) and was told that was high (donated plasma). Thanks.

Offline aygart

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2002 on: October 01, 2020, 08:17:58 PM »
Starting to hear about small children having caught from their rebbi.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline ari3

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2003 on: October 01, 2020, 10:29:04 PM »
Or for that matter the Mayo Clinic from Bikur Cholim of Lakewood testing? My results were 3.62 (positive for antibodies) and was told that was high (donated plasma). Thanks.
I think the range is from 1 to 5 (with it being impossible to get to 5 only close). Over 1.2 being considered having antibodies, between 1 and 1.2 considered inconclusive and 1 and under considered not having antibodies. I had 2.01 when I tested.

Offline SayWhat

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2004 on: October 01, 2020, 10:41:34 PM »
Many many Shuls and Yeshivas have had the “No Mask” policy for the last several months and many of those same Rabonim have participated at weddings that had hundreds of unmasked guests. When these policies have been questioned on this forum by some we were told it’s “Daas Torah”.

With the general agreement that we now have another outbreak (second wave?) the tide is turning towards wearing masks, altering/cancelling Hakafas, Simchas Bais Hashoeiva etc… My question is was “Daas Torah” right then and “Daas Torah” is now to wear a mask or was “Daas Torah” wrong for disagreeing with the overwhelming consensus of doctors who felt that having packed indoor gatherings without social distancing and masks was not a good idea and would lead to another outbreak?

Have we taken the concept of “Daas Torah” too far? Is a Rosh Yeshiva’s/Rov’s opinion on masks considered “Daas Torah”? Should a Rosh Yeshiva/ Rov be taking a position on masks or deferring to Drs.? When “Daas Torah” goes against science/Doctors/Hatzalah who should we listen to? Have the latest events changed your mind?

Offline ari3

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2005 on: October 01, 2020, 10:50:12 PM »
With the general agreement that we now have another outbreak (second wave?) the tide is turning towards wearing masks, altering/cancelling Hakafas, Simchas Bais Hashoeiva etc… My question is was “Daas Torah” right then and “Daas Torah” is now to wear a mask or was “Daas Torah” wrong for disagreeing with the overwhelming consensus of doctors who felt that having packed indoor gatherings without social distancing and masks was not a good idea and would lead to another outbreak?
If circumstances change than the proper הנהגה can change as well

Quote
Have we taken the concept of “Daas Torah” too far? Is a Rosh Yeshiva’s/Rov’s opinion on masks considered “Daas Torah”? Should a Rosh Yeshiva/ Rov be taking a position on masks or deferring to Drs.? When “Daas Torah” goes against science/Doctors/Hatzalah who should we listen to? Have the latest events changed your mind?
I haven't really seen any Roshei Yeshiva/ Rabbonim make a public statement about not wearing masks (other than one letter which was in reference to precautions that impact learning which is definitely a daas torah question).

A different question might be if I saw Rabbi Ploni without a mask at a חתונה (which I saw many) is that considered daas torah?

Offline aygart

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2006 on: October 01, 2020, 11:00:00 PM »
Many many Shuls and Yeshivas have had the “No Mask” policy for the last several months and many of those same Rabonim have participated at weddings that had hundreds of unmasked guests. When these policies have been questioned on this forum by some we were told it’s “Daas Torah”.

With the general agreement that we now have another outbreak (second wave?) the tide is turning towards wearing masks, altering/cancelling Hakafas, Simchas Bais Hashoeiva etc… My question is was “Daas Torah” right then and “Daas Torah” is now to wear a mask or was “Daas Torah” wrong for disagreeing with the overwhelming consensus of doctors who felt that having packed indoor gatherings without social distancing and masks was not a good idea and would lead to another outbreak?

Have we taken the concept of “Daas Torah” too far? Is a Rosh Yeshiva’s/Rov’s opinion on masks considered “Daas Torah”? Should a Rosh Yeshiva/ Rov be taking a position on masks or deferring to Drs.? When “Daas Torah” goes against science/Doctors/Hatzalah who should we listen to? Have the latest events changed your mind?

What I have heard from my rabbeim is that you should never turn your head off under any circumstances.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Online yelped

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2007 on: October 01, 2020, 11:09:06 PM »
What I have heard from my rabbeim is that you should never turn your head off under any circumstances.
So are you saying that these Rabbonim/Roshei Yeshivas teach that you should turn off your head, or is it just the people who understand it that way?

Offline aygart

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2008 on: October 01, 2020, 11:14:40 PM »
So are you saying that these Rabbonim/Roshei Yeshivas teach that you should turn off your head, or is it just the people who understand it that way?
Some quote such things but I am always skeptical that maybe it was just the easiest thing to do.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline dasmo801

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2009 on: October 01, 2020, 11:43:38 PM »
If circumstances change than the proper הנהגה can change as well.

Circumstances did not change. We are just starting to see the effects of our prior actions. And I would argue that anyone who lacked  the ability or the foresight to understand the very obvious cause/effect is by definition disqualified from offering daas torah.

If you want to argue that they knew this would happen but held that af al pi kein, that's another argument. But to blame it on changing circumstances is a cop out IMO.

Offline ari3

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2010 on: October 02, 2020, 12:19:17 AM »
https://www.state.nj.us/health/cd/topics/covid2019_dashboard.shtml

According to the NJ covid tracker there has been 1 confirmed outbreak linked to a school in Ocean County with 3 cases.

Offline chevron

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2011 on: October 02, 2020, 01:06:01 AM »
The chances of being reinfected are still extremely low, the fact that there are a few reinfections doesn't change that. Knowing that you still have antibodies means the chances of reinfection are basically zero.

stop making things up You don't know what you're talking about You're full of <redacted by mods>...

You have repeatedly posted stuff that doesn't make any sense..

You don't know this for a fact nobody knows anything for a fact people do know for a fact that some people are getting reinfected.

All that means is that, people going around without wearing a masks without any precautions because they got it already, can actually be spreading it again.

So just shut up with made up <redacted by mods>
« Last Edit: October 02, 2020, 01:30:25 AM by jj1000 »

Offline chevron

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2012 on: October 02, 2020, 01:07:48 AM »
stop making things up You don't know what you're talking about You're full of <redacted by mods>...

You have repeatedly posted stuff that doesn't make any sense..

You don't know this for a fact nobody knows anything for a fact people do know for a fact that some people are getting reinfected.

All that means is that, people going around without wearing a masks without any precautions because they got it already, can actually be spreading it again.

So just shut up with made up <redacted by mods>

You said both very low and then you said basically zero.

Very low? Sure.. implying otherwise, How would you know?

What if some of these reinfection cases have no symptoms?

« Last Edit: October 02, 2020, 01:30:51 AM by jj1000 »

Offline ari3

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2013 on: October 02, 2020, 01:25:16 AM »
So just shut up with made up <redacted by mods>
Please write respectfully. Noone will respect your opinion more because you write like a....
« Last Edit: October 02, 2020, 01:30:43 AM by jj1000 »

Offline chevron

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2014 on: October 02, 2020, 02:01:30 AM »
Please write respectfully. Noone will respect your opinion more because you write like a....

You think I care anymore?

No one listens anyways...  They have hydroxy and They all know that covid19 is a made up leftist scam.

https://mobile.kikar.co.il/abroad/article/375602.

114 dead in 3 days. It's almost 40 a day,  1200 a month, 14,400 a year

It's all made up says the chareidi world!!

Offline joeberg

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2015 on: October 02, 2020, 02:38:30 AM »
Friendly’s uses Quest, I believe Chai care as well. I did a quest antibody test at my dr yesterday 10am and got myquest email 7am. (Negative again). Waiting to see how long until my dr calls with results.
Chai said they use Empire city and Infiniti labs.

Offline Ergel

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2016 on: October 02, 2020, 07:38:29 AM »
The chances of being reinfected are still extremely low, the fact that there are a few reinfections doesn't change that. Knowing that you still have antibodies means the chances of reinfection are basically zero.
I find it interesting that you consider yourself incapable of even offering an opinion as to when someone is considered a rodef, but are very quick to definitively decide how reinfections work. Especially considering you likely know a lot more about hilchos rodef than about infectious diseases
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2017 on: October 02, 2020, 07:43:27 AM »
I find it interesting that you consider yourself incapable of even offering an opinion as to when someone is considered a rodef, but are very quick to definitively decide how reinfections work. Especially considering you likely know a lot more about hilchos rodef than about infectious diseases

Touché
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2018 on: October 02, 2020, 07:51:15 AM »
I find it interesting that you consider yourself incapable of even offering an opinion as to when someone is considered a rodef, but are very quick to definitively decide how reinfections work. Especially considering you likely know a lot more about hilchos rodef than about infectious diseases
When all else fails, resort to personal attacks.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Ergel

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2019 on: October 02, 2020, 07:54:47 AM »
When all else fails, resort to personal attacks.
LOL

You should happen to know, I tend to think that your post here is mostly correct (if you test positive for antibodies, reinfection is likely near zero. If you haven't tested - I don't know if I'd say extremely low, I'd probably say low to very low), so I wasn't disagreeing with your premise here at all. I just find it intersting
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