Author Topic: Lakewood covid cases  (Read 522859 times)

Offline Baruch

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2680 on: December 01, 2020, 05:51:56 PM »
I get it secondhand. I try to post whenever there's an uptick.
ty.

Offline yzj

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2681 on: December 01, 2020, 06:26:35 PM »
May be time to start a Lakewood 3rd wave thread.

Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2682 on: December 01, 2020, 06:59:38 PM »
May be time to start a Lakewood 3rd wave thread.
One can make the case that that’s what it should be called, but I would consider this part of the second wave. There was a 3-4 week break when people  stopped making weddings, but otherwise there was no lull. These aren’t new infections, these are festering infections given another chance to spread.
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Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2683 on: December 02, 2020, 08:43:32 AM »
DW positive. Everyone else negative, for now..
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Offline iwlw2

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2684 on: December 02, 2020, 08:56:32 AM »
DW positive. Everyone else negative, for now..
Refuah Shleima!

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2685 on: December 02, 2020, 09:08:07 AM »
DW positive. Everyone else negative, for now..
Refuah shleima! Welcome to the club ;)

Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2686 on: December 02, 2020, 09:11:40 AM »
Refuah shleima! Welcome to the club ;)
Are you me?
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Offline eyj

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2687 on: December 02, 2020, 07:18:51 PM »
Definitely other viruses going around Lakewood as well. Several family members have flu like symptoms. Negative covid tests and recent antibodies. Probably the worst I’ve felt since covid in March.  Just standard flu symptoms though. There is obviously a rise in covid numbers in the frum Lakewood  community, no doubt about it, but I really wonder if some of the increased positive numbers we are seeing are exacerbated by so many people testing due to symptoms that are actually caused by the run of the mill virus and incidentally testing positive for covid. Chemed ran out of rapids the other day and I understand that other places are busy as well.

Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2688 on: December 02, 2020, 08:32:14 PM »
Definitely other viruses going around Lakewood as well. Several family members have flu like symptoms. Negative covid tests and recent antibodies. Probably the worst I’ve felt since covid in March.  Just standard flu symptoms though. There is obviously a rise in covid numbers in the frum Lakewood  community, no doubt about it, but I really wonder if some of the increased positive numbers we are seeing are exacerbated by so many people testing due to symptoms that are actually caused by the run of the mill virus and incidentally testing positive for covid. Chemed ran out of rapids the other day and I understand that other places are busy as well.
“Incidentally testing positive for COVID”? That’s not a thing. You can’t test positive without actually having COVID. And if they had it recently enough to still be lingering in their nose, they wouldn’t be testing again.

I don’t understand your point.
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Offline grodnoking

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2689 on: December 02, 2020, 08:47:00 PM »


“Incidentally testing positive for COVID”? That’s not a thing. You can’t test positive without actually having COVID. And if they had it recently enough to still be lingering in their nose, they wouldn’t be testing again.

I don’t understand your point.

Lingers in the nose 2+ months later.
I'm not who you think I am.

Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2690 on: December 02, 2020, 08:58:23 PM »

Lingers in the nose 2+ months later.
Yes, and? People would not be testing now if they had COVID 2 months ago..
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Offline eyj

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2691 on: December 02, 2020, 09:24:37 PM »
Yes, and? People would not be testing now if they had COVID 2 months ago..
It’s very simple.The point is that the vast number of Covid positives never end up in the numbers because they are asymptomatic and come and depart with those infected having no reason to test. Enter a virus or flu with covid like symptoms and you have all of those people rushing to test, and the tests catch the asymptomatic covid they have concurrent with the symptomatic virus or flu. So the numbers go up because you are catching more of the asymptomatic covid cases in the population. I’m not saying it accounts for all of the increase but it makes sense that it would be a factor.

Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2692 on: December 02, 2020, 09:32:51 PM »
It’s very simple.The point is that the vast number of Covid positives never end up in the numbers because they are asymptomatic and come and depart with those infected having no reason to test. Enter a virus or flu with covid like symptoms and you have all of those people rushing to test, and the tests catch the asymptomatic covid they have concurrent with the symptomatic virus or flu. So the numbers go up because you are catching more of the asymptomatic covid cases in the population. I’m not saying it accounts for all of the increase but it makes sense that it would be a factor.
It is currently estimated that around 20% of COVID patients are fully asymptomatic.* There would need to be very very many people who just happen to have been unknowingly asymptomatic within the last 2 months (who didn’t get it in the first wave) and just happen to be sick and test for COVID now and just happen to get the virus sample picked up (which, while it happens, isn’t super common) to affect the numbers greatly.

That can only possibly account for a small fraction of people testing positive, by sheer math.

* Source

Rule of thumb: When someone tests positive for COVID, they typically have COVID. There is a reason the large testing drives where they discouraged symptomatic people from testing were wildly successful.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2020, 09:38:33 PM by S209 »
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Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2693 on: December 02, 2020, 09:38:47 PM »
My 8 year old sister just tested positive
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Offline eyj

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2694 on: December 02, 2020, 10:08:08 PM »
It is currently estimated that around 20% of COVID patients are fully asymptomatic.* There would need to be very very many people who just happen to have been unknowingly asymptomatic within the last 2 months (who didn’t get it in the first wave) and just happen to be sick and test for COVID now and just happen to get the virus sample picked up (which, while it happens, isn’t super common) to affect the numbers greatly.

That can only possibly account for a small fraction of people testing positive, by sheer math.

* Source

Rule of thumb: When someone tests positive for COVID, they typically have COVID. There is a reason the large testing drives where they discouraged symptomatic people from testing were wildly successful.
The best study we probably had was the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship and the majority of those infected there were asymptomatic.
Best estimate in a truly randomly tested population is 30% (Fauci claims 40%)
https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about-us/news-press/news-detail?articleId=29806&publicid=743
But that doesn’t include the many who have symptoms too mild to motivate them to test- perhaps until they concurrently get the flu.

Why are we talking about people who had covid 2 months ago? I’m referring to people who have new onset asymptomatic covid now who normally would never come in for testing.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2020, 10:12:47 PM by eyj »

Offline Euclid

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2695 on: December 02, 2020, 10:12:24 PM »
The year is 2033, the world is in midst of its 57th wave of covid; people are saying "maybe this time the numbers are high because of too much testing".

Offline Baruch

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2696 on: December 02, 2020, 10:25:26 PM »
The year is 2033, the world is in midst of its 57th wave of covid; people are saying "maybe this time the numbers are high because of too much testing".
"the Shadchan said this time it will be different, I'd heard those words so many times before" -Abie Rottenberg

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Offline Yehudaa

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2697 on: December 02, 2020, 10:35:54 PM »
"the Shadchan said this time it will be different, I'd heard those words so many times before" -Abie Rottenberg
Worth posting here: https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=120631.100

Offline S209

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2698 on: December 02, 2020, 11:15:43 PM »
The best study we probably had was the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship and the majority of those infected there were asymptomatic.
What are you talking about? Less than 20% (an estimated 17.9%) remained asymptomatic.

Source

Best estimate in a truly randomly tested population is 30%
https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about-us/news-press/news-detail?articleId=29806&publicid=743
The best estimate here also did not factor in the limitation you raised- that these “asymptomatic” carriers may just as well be patients who have already recovered from COVID with lingering virus cells. Remember, the study was conducted in August.

Why are we talking about people who had covid 2 months ago? I’m referring to people who have new onset asymptomatic covid now who normally would never come in for testing.
So you’re saying that the testing perfectly captures the amount of people who currently have COVID? Got it.

Again, what is your point?
« Last Edit: December 02, 2020, 11:32:57 PM by S209 »
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Offline YitzyS

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Re: Lakewood covid cases
« Reply #2699 on: December 02, 2020, 11:17:32 PM »
My 8 year old sister just tested positive
Refuah Shelaimah!

Any symptoms?