Lakewood covid cases

[biobook]

Then why don't we all test every morning just in case?

We should.  Or something close to that.
 
"Michael Mina, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, has been among the loudest voices calling for federal funding and distribution of cheap, rapid, paper-strip antigen tests as a means to control the pandemic. In an ideal world, Mina said, every American would be able to test for Covid twice a week at home, with supplies paid for and distributed by the federal government."

https://www.statnews.com/2021/02/05/a-waste-of-money-the-home-covid-19-test-funded-by-the-biden-administration-is-too-costly-and-complex-critics-say/
https://time.com/5912705/covid-19-stop-spread-christmas/

[Euclid]

http://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2021/02/friday-february-5-news-updates-lakewood.html

Uptick in corona cases several cholim in hospitals some on vents. Doctors are seeing false negatives on covid tests as new strains are not detected initially

[PlatinumGuy]

Then why don't we all test every morning just in case?

We should, but the argument not to is that the odds of it being positive are too low to justify the inconvenience of a test. To claim a positive test was unnecessary is absolutely absurd

[Dan]

Doctors are seeing false negatives on covid tests as new strains are not detected initially

Rapid or PCR?
Any research on this?

[Euclid]

Rapid or PCR?
Any research on this?

Was wondering the same. First I've heard about this. My (uneducated) inclination is that it's rapids.

[PlatinumGuy]

Was wondering the same. First I've heard about this. My (uneducated) inclination is that it's rapids.

Sounds more like they’re just waking up to the possibility of people testing positive after testing negative

[AsherO]

Was wondering the same. First I've heard about this. My (uneducated) inclination is that it's rapids.

It’s probably rapids and probably conjecture.

[PlatinumGuy]

It’s probably rapids and probably conjecture.

As far as I can tell, the presence of variants in Lakewood is all conjecture

[YitzyS]

As far as I can tell, the presence of variants in Lakewood is all conjecture

Two weeks ago, the NJ Health Commissioner announced that there was one confirmed case of the UK variant in Ocean County. She didn't specify which town. However, if there was one case in OC two weeks ago, I think it's more than just conjecture to assume that there are cases present in Lakewood now.

[dasmo801]

Two weeks ago, the NJ Health Commissioner announced that there was one confirmed case of the UK variant in Ocean County. She didn't specify which town. However, if there was one case in OC two weeks ago, I think it's more than just conjecture to assume that there are cases present in Lakewood now.

What you are describing is, literally, conjecture.

[YitzyS]

What you are describing is, literally, conjecture.

I should've made it more clear.

It's not "just conjecture." I would classify it as "conjecture based on strong grounds", or something like that.

Basically, it's not just an educated guess. There is a very good reason to assume that if there has been a confirmed case of a very contagious variant in the region (and it's highly likely that there were a thousand at that point, because they don't test every person for variant), it would be strange if there were NOT a number of cases in Lakewood by now.

Yes, still conjecture, but not "just conjecture." Rather, "compelling conjecture."

Yes, I learned in a Brisker yeshiva.

[dasmo801]

I should've made it more clear.

It's not "just conjecture." I would classify it as "conjecture based on strong grounds", or something like that.

Basically, it's not just an educated guess. There is a very good reason to assume that if there has been a confirmed case of a very contagious variant in the region (and it's highly likely that there were a thousand at that point, because they don't test every person for variant), it would be strange if there were NOT a number of cases in Lakewood by now.

Yes, still conjecture, but not "just conjecture." Rather, "compelling conjecture."

Yes, I learned in a Brisker yeshiva.

BTW, I agree with your guess that there are variants all over Lakewood. The rapid increase in numbers for January vs previous months certainly bears that out.

Just a DP, Rosh Hashana time one of my daughters (teenage) was positive and no one else in the family was infected. Two weeks ago another teenage daughter was positive and myself, my wife and every one of my kids ended up positive. 

[aygart]

I should've made it more clear.

It's not "just conjecture." I would classify it as "conjecture based on strong grounds", or something like that.

Basically, it's not just an educated guess. There is a very good reason to assume that if there has been a confirmed case of a very contagious variant in the region (and it's highly likely that there were a thousand at that point, because they don't test every person for variant), it would be strange if there were NOT a number of cases in Lakewood by now.

Yes, still conjecture, but not "just conjecture." Rather, "compelling conjecture."

Yes, I learned in a Brisker yeshiva.

None of what you wrote sounds remotely brisk-like. It actually sounds very opposite from brisk.

[aygart]

Then why don't we all test every morning just in case?

How about every morning x amount of days past having been exposed?

[iwlw2]

OK this is really puzzling to me. Since my wife tested positive, wanted to get as many of my kids out of quarantine as possible, so took them all for antibody testing. I and my older children all have antibodies since April/May. Tested a bunch of kids from age 11 down to 2, none of them had antibodies except.... the 2 year old! Gotta admit was not expecting that....

[Dan]

OK this is really puzzling to me. Since my wife tested positive, wanted to get as many of my kids out of quarantine as possible, so took them all for antibody testing. I and my older children all have antibodies since April/May. Tested a bunch of kids from age 11 down to 2, none of them had antibodies except.... the 2 year old! Gotta admit was not expecting that....

Did you do a quantitative titer?

[iwlw2]

Did you do a quantitative titer?

I am not sure if when I get the full report it will tell me that or not, but the initial result given to me was only negative/positive for antibodies.

[YitzyS]

None of what you wrote sounds remotely brisk-like. It actually sounds very opposite from brisk.

It's not even a week since the petirah of Rav Dovid Soloveitchik and I'm already losing my connection to the Brisker thought process.

[ShimshonK]

Just heard (indirectly) from someone who works at a testing site (not Chemed) that they traced ~50 positive cases to one wedding from last week. And that seems to be mostly, if not fully, from that single test site. So I'd venture to say there were probably many more.

[PlatinumGuy]

Just heard (indirectly) from someone who works at a testing site (not Chemed) that they traced ~50 positive cases to one wedding from last week. And that seems to be mostly, if not fully, from that single test site. So I'd venture to say there were probably many more.

Not at all surprising. We are our worst enemies.